以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 量化亏损，你可以骂"因子失效"、"模型过拟合"。 但有没有发现，评价某些策略亏损时， 理由似乎很 「 玄学 」 —— "策略水逆期"、"基金经理 最近手感不顺"... 这就是我们今天要聊的—— 「非硬核」策略。 它的业绩曲线，是由"天时"和"人和"共同绘制的： 天时： 策略往往在某种特定的市场风格下表现极佳，但在不适合的环境中可能长期跑输，很「看 天吃饭」。 那么，典型的「非硬核」策略有哪些呢？ 1、主观多头 这是最传统的策略，也是「非硬核」的代表。 它的表现，几乎全靠基金经理的个人能力。无论是挖掘"十倍股"，还是判断产业周期，本质上都 是人的智慧。 一旦市场风格与基金经理的风格不匹配，或者基金经理判断失误，业绩波动会非常剧烈。 但反之，其爆发力也远非其他策略可比。 人和： 策略表现高度依赖基金经理个人的认知、经验、直觉甚至性格。 换个基金经理，业绩可能天翻地覆。 这就可以解释，为什么去年有的主观私募可以做到1年翻倍的业绩，但有的私募甚至是负收益。 2 、中性策略 尽管量化中性剥离了Beta， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards the A-share market, particularly favoring small-cap and technology sectors, with a focus on structural rotation and high volatility [1][30]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a strong start in January 2026, with significant gains in various indices, particularly the ChiNext and small-cap indices, reflecting a robust market environment [1]. - The precious metals sector showed strong performance driven by both safe-haven demand and capital allocation needs, while the banking sector faced a decline, breaking a long-standing trend of outperformance [2][12]. - The overall market saw a high number of stocks achieving positive returns, with 3,631 stocks recording monthly gains, and 16 stocks doubling in price during January [2]. Market Review and Outlook - The A-share market indices recorded substantial monthly gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 12.29% and the CSI 500 Index by 12.12%, indicating a strong performance in small-cap stocks [1]. - The average daily trading volume reached 30,147.10 billion yuan, reflecting increased trading enthusiasm among retail investors [1]. - The report anticipates continued structural rotation in February, with a focus on precious metals and certain new energy sectors due to supply constraints and capital allocation needs [30]. Futures Market - The commodity futures market showed an overall upward trend in January, with the precious metals sector leading the gains, while agricultural products like live pigs and soybean meal faced declines [11][12]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is characterized by weak recovery and strong differentiation, impacting demand for cyclical commodities [12]. Private Fund Strategies - In January, the average return for private funds was 5.71%, with equity and commodity long strategies showing significant profitability [22]. - The report notes that January was a month of systematic recovery, with many strategies achieving returns in the 7%-10% range, particularly those focused on equities and high elasticity [24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversified strategies and risk management in the current market environment, suggesting that private fund strategies can provide opportunities for excess returns while managing risks effectively [33].

排排⽹全市场 重点私募基⾦跟踪周报 2026年02⽉04⽇ 统计区间：2026-01-23⾄ 2026-01-30 上周涨跌总览：(2026-01-26-2026-01-30) 均涨幅 2.38% 均跌幅 -2.31% 涨39.0% 跌60.3% 每类策略本周的表现分布图如下，具体每类策略业绩表现详⻅下⽂： 数据截⽌：2026-01-30 | | 本周收益正负占⽐分布 | | 今年以来收益正负占⽐分布 | | 近⼀年收益正负占⽐分布 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主观选股 | 41.10% | 58.90% | 88.95% | 11.05% | 95.73% | 4.27% | | 沪深300指增 | 47.69% | 52.31% | 98.46% | 1.54% | 100.00% | 0.00% | | 中证500指增 | 4.15% | 95.85% | 98.81% | 1.19% | 99.69% | 0.31% | | 中证1000指增 | 1.37% | 98.63% | 99.45% | 0.55% | 99.37% | ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 在私募行业中，主观多头策略始终是国内私募领域的核心主线，它既是基金经理认知深度与决策魄力的试金石，也是投资者穿越周期、追寻阿尔 法收益的重要倚仗。在刚过去的2025年，A股、港股、美股主要指数均录得不同程度的涨幅，私募主观多头产品整体也取得了不错的业绩。 私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年底，2048只符合排名规则的主观多头产品， 2025年收益均值高达37.78%，其中1923只产品年内实现正收 益，正收益占比高达93.90%。 收益分位统计来看，124只主观多头产品2025年收益在100%以上(占比6.05%)、491只主观多头产品2025年收益在50%以上(占比23.97%)、跑赢 年度沪深300指数的主观多头产品共1324只(占比64.65%)。 | 公司规模 | 符合排名规则 的产品数 | 2025年收益均值 | 正收益产品数 | 正收益占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 100亿以上 | 184 | 21.61% | 172 | 93.48% | | 50-100亿 | 114 | 34.52 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has emerged as the strongest asset of the year, with a price increase from below 2800 to over 4300, representing a year-to-date growth of over 50% [2][3]. Group 1: Gold's Role in the Market - Gold plays three roles in the market: as a commodity, currency, and investment [5]. - As a commodity, gold prices are driven by supply and demand dynamics, particularly influenced by central bank purchases and jewelry consumption [7]. - As a currency, gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar index, meaning that a weaker dollar leads to higher gold prices [9][13]. - As an investment, gold's value is compared against other asset classes, and its opportunity cost is considered when evaluating potential returns from other investments [15][16][19]. Group 2: Investment Strategies in Gold - Private equity managers can leverage gold investments through three main strategies: subjective long strategies, macro multi-asset strategies, and CTA strategies [23]. - Subjective long strategies involve managers making investment decisions based on the current market value of gold, often focusing on its currency attributes during periods of weak dollar and low interest rates [25]. - Macro multi-asset strategies view gold as part of a broader asset allocation, using it to hedge against risks in other assets like stocks and bonds [33][37]. - CTA strategies focus on price movements without delving into fundamental analysis, using quantitative models to respond to market trends and relative strength among commodities [45][55]. Group 3: Conclusion on Gold Investment - Gold serves as both an offensive tool based on macroeconomic judgments and a stabilizing asset in a diversified portfolio, as well as a signal in quantitative models [57]. - The ability to identify diverse strategies and utilize flexible trading tools is crucial for successful gold investment [58].

Group 1: Global Asset Performance and Strategy Evolution in 2025 - In 2025, global financial markets exhibited a "high volatility, high return" structural characteristic, driven by the Federal Reserve's preventive interest rate cuts and a shift towards loose monetary policy globally [2][11] - A-shares and H-shares were at historical low valuations, leading to excellent risk-adjusted returns in equity assets, with AH shares achieving steady returns amidst relatively low volatility [2][11] - The US dollar index fell by 8.5% in the first three quarters, marking the largest decline since 2018, which boosted the revaluation of non-US assets and led to record inflows into emerging market equity funds, totaling $52 billion [2][11] - Gold and other safe-haven assets performed exceptionally well due to geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and dollar depreciation, becoming important hedging and value-adding tools in portfolios [2][11] - Fixed income assets showed a mixed pattern, with US Treasury yields remaining high and attractive for allocation, while the Chinese bond market experienced significant volatility with limited yield contribution [2][11] Group 2: Asset Management Industry Trends in 2025 - The iteration of quantitative strategies accelerated, driven by AI, with end-to-end models achieving scalable application, demonstrating stronger generalization and adaptability [13][14] - Competition in the quantitative space intensified, leading to product innovation as managers optimized terms and introduced new product forms to enhance client experience [13][14] - Subjective long-only managers faced redemption pressures despite positive returns, with trust in subjective strategies not fully restored, highlighting the need for transparency and long-term performance validation [13][14] - All-weather strategies entered a rapid development phase, with the "stock + gold" allocation further enhancing their effectiveness, showing lower drawdowns and higher Sharpe ratios compared to traditional single-asset strategies [13][14] Group 3: Building Differentiated Competitive Advantages - The company has focused on a "small steps, continuous evolution" development path, building a compounding capability flywheel [5][17] - A subjective manager selection capability has been established, focusing on genuine Alpha creation ability rather than manager history or size [5][17] - A deep evaluation system for quantitative managers has been developed to identify those with differentiated data, computational power, or strategic advantages [6][15] - The company actively covers over 2,000 private equity managers, employing a "broad net, deep digging" approach to capture emerging forces with non-consensus but correct characteristics [7][16] - The company embraces product and tool innovation, maintaining an open attitude towards derivatives, structured design, and risk control mechanisms to enhance client experience [8][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges of consistently outperforming in the private equity market, particularly in the context of the rapidly changing capital market environment since 2023, highlighting the importance of fund managers' research capabilities and strategy adaptation [2]. Summary by Strategy Quantitative Long-Only - A total of 16 quantitative long-only products have consistently ranked in the top tier from January to November 2023, 2024, and 2025, with notable contributions from firms like Minghong, Maoyuan, and Hanrong [2]. - As of November 2025, there are 640, 462, and 325 quantitative long-only products reported for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 16 products making it to the top 30% in all three years [3]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from firms including Huijing Asset, Shanghai Zijie Private Equity, and Abama Investment [3]. Subjective Long-Only - There are 14 subjective long-only products that have maintained top-tier rankings across the same periods, with notable firms like Kaishi Private Equity and Yidian Najin included [7]. - The number of subjective long-only products reported as of November 2025 is 1,089, 979, and 838 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 14 products achieving top 30% rankings in all three years [7]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from Beiheng Fund, Ding Tai Sifang (Shenzhen), and Guangdong Guangjin [8]. CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) - A total of 12 CTA products have consistently ranked in the top tier from January to November 2023, 2024, and 2025, with leading products from Guanjing Fund and other firms [13]. - The number of CTA products reported as of November 2025 is 256, 226, and 187 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 12 products making it to the top 40% in all three years [13]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from Guanjing Fund, Gongqingcheng Guangju Xinghe Private Equity, and Caoben Investment [14]. Multi-Asset - There are 22 multi-asset products that have consistently ranked in the top tier from January to November 2023, 2024, and 2025, with significant contributions from firms like Luyuan and Junfu [18]. - The number of multi-asset products reported as of November 2025 is 414, 337, and 265 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 22 products achieving top 40% rankings in all three years [18]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from Luyuan Private Equity, Henan Zhi Ying Private Equity, and Junfu Investment [18].

Core Insights - The private equity market has seen significant fluctuations this year, with a focus on products that can navigate market cycles and provide long-term returns for investors [1] Group 1: Performance of "Double Ten" Billion Private Equity Products - A total of 13 products have made it to the "Double Ten" list, indicating they have been established for at least ten years and achieved an annualized return of over 10% in the last decade [2] - Among these products, 11 are based on subjective long/short strategies, highlighting the enduring value of active stock selection by fund managers [2] - The remaining 2 products utilize macro strategies to generate returns by understanding economic cycles [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Insights - Fund managers exhibit clear investment philosophies and strong execution, with a focus on dividend and technology sectors [3] - The founder of Xiva Asset, Liang Hong, emphasizes a portfolio that includes stable cash flow assets like oil and insurance, alongside growth sectors such as consumer electronics and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - Dongfang Gangwan's Dan Bin suggests that artificial intelligence is not a short-term trend but rather a long-term cycle that could last over a decade, urging investors to focus on not missing out on this era [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a clear slow bull characteristic in 2023, with significant returns from sectors like technology growth and resource cycles, leading to an overall increase of over 15% in major indices from January to November, with the ChiNext Index leading at 42.54% [2][3]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Performance - The three major A-share indices have all risen over 15% from January to November, with the ChiNext Index achieving a remarkable 42.54% increase [2]. - A-share indices exhibit lower volatility compared to the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei Index, aligning with the characteristics of a slow bull market [2]. Index Data - The performance data for major indices from January to November is as follows: - CSI 300: 15.04% return, 15.69% annualized volatility, 127.80% turnover rate, 10.49% maximum drawdown - Shanghai Composite: 16.02% return, 14.09% annualized volatility, 245.70% turnover rate, 9.71% maximum drawdown - Shenzhen Component: 24.67% return, 21.71% annualized volatility, 394.74% turnover rate, 14.98% maximum drawdown - ChiNext Index: 42.54% return, 30.21% annualized volatility, 576.46% turnover rate, 20.79% maximum drawdown [3]. Fund Performance - The average return for 2049 subjective long-only products from January to November is 34.39%, significantly outperforming most A-share indices [3]. - Among the 197 subjective long-only products from billion-yuan private equity firms, the average return is 23.72%, with 94.42% of products showing positive returns [4]. Top Performing Funds - The top three subjective long-only products from billion-yuan private equity firms are: 1. Yuanxin Investment's "Yuanxin China Active Growth C" managed by Wang Aoye 2. Jiuku Investment's "Jiuku Value Selection No. 1" managed by Jiang Yunfei 3. Wangzheng Asset's "Wangzheng Win-Win No. 3" managed by Wang Penghui [4][5]. Sector Focus - The focus on gold investment is highlighted, with managers like Guan Xin from Xishirun Investment emphasizing a new "reflexive" cycle in gold prices, suggesting a strategic allocation towards gold as a long-term investment [11][12]. - The performance of funds in the 50-100 billion category shows an average return of 29.83%, with 95.49% of products yielding positive returns [8]. Emerging Trends - The report indicates a trend of adjusting portfolios to optimize returns, with managers actively seeking undervalued quality companies while maintaining a core and satellite investment strategy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 has shown distinct characteristics of a structural bull market, driven by policy support for the economy and technological transformation, leading to an upward trend in indices and significant returns for investors [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the private equity stock strategy index has achieved a return of 23.67%, while the CSI All Share Index has returned 18.30% during the same period [2] - The quantitative long strategy index has outperformed the subjective long strategy index, with returns of 34.67% and 22.75% respectively [2] Group 2: Strategy Analysis - The market environment this year was expected to favor subjective long strategies, yet quantitative strategies have leveraged their systematic advantages to capture opportunities [2] - The average performance of subjective long strategies has not matched that of quantitative strategies, attributed to the internal dispersion of returns and decreased effectiveness of timing strategies [12][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current environment for subjective long strategies is expected to improve compared to 2022-2024, with enhanced liquidity and a shift in market risk appetite [18] - Investors are encouraged to focus on subjective long managers who emphasize shareholder returns and sectors with high growth potential, such as AI and related industries [18]