宏观策略 | 中国经济 2025 年 12 月 19 日 2021 年下半年后，伴随着房地产市场进入调整期，叠加国内人口和国际地缘政治格 局等长期因素变化，新旧动能转换成为影响中国经济表现的关键因素。期间，新技 术、新产业表现出强劲增长动能和产品竞争力，扩大国内消费选择，强化出口韧性。 但房地产等旧的增长模式在国民经济中占比依然较大，当房地产市场的深度收缩在总 量上大幅消减新产业扩张效应时，宏观治理的调控内容、方向和力度既是直接拉动内 需、稳定消费物价的重要变量，也是激发私人部门和地方政府积极性的关键途径。 预计宏观政策虽然将保持适当的支持力度，但相比于政策对 2025 年上半年经济增长 的显著提升，支撑力度相对缓和。预计更加积极的财政政策将安排 12.28 万亿元的新 增政府债券，包括 5.88万亿/占 GDP 4%的一般公共预算赤字，4.6万亿/占 GDP 3.1% 的地方政府专项债，1.8 万亿/占 GDP 1.3%的特别国债）；2025 年预算新增 11.86 万 亿元，后通过使用限额增加至 12.06 万亿元。相应，广义财政支出增速预计增长 4.4%，和 2025 增速基本持平。 适度宽松的货币政策 ...

任志强认为，"八个坚持"构建了覆盖供需两端的政策体系，内需主导与创新驱动聚焦经济增长动能转换，改革攻坚与对外 开放着力破解制度性障碍，双碳引领与协调发展优化区域和产业布局，民生保障与风险防控则筑牢社会稳定底线。值得注意的 是，政策特别强调"存量政策与增量政策协同"，表明宏观治理正从单点突破转向系统集成，将显著提升政策传导效率。 （编辑 张昕） 本报讯 （记者袁传玺）近日，华福证券总裁助理兼研究所所长任志强发布题为《政策加力提质护航"十五五"高质量发展》 等多份研究报告。 任志强在研报中表示，从长期维度看，过去五年有效应对多重冲击挑战，经济、科技、国防等硬实力与文化、制度、外交 等软实力同步跃升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，不仅为"十五五"开局奠定了物质基础，更积累了应对复杂局面、统筹发展与安全 的宝贵经验，让"稳中求进"有了更坚实的底气与更充足的空间。这种"稳"不是静态的停滞，而是动态的均衡，为后续"进"的突 破预留了充足势能。 任志强表示，12月8日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，并特别强调增强政策的"前瞻性、 针对性、协同性"。这预示着未来宏观调控将更注重政策组合拳的效能，财政、货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the central government's decisions to achieve annual economic goals, especially as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The economy has shown resilience under pressure, maintaining stability and progress, which lays a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and addressing structural adjustments have begun to yield positive results, reflecting effective macroeconomic governance [1] Group 2: Challenges and Actions - The external environment remains unstable and uncertain, posing significant challenges to steady economic operation [1] - There is a call for increased efforts and collaboration to enhance the quality and quantity of economic growth as the year-end approaches [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, outperforming both the previous year and global peers, indicating a strong foundation for high-quality development [2][3][8] - China's manufacturing sector remains robust, with significant achievements in technology and production capabilities, evidenced by the successful launch of major projects and innovations [3][4][6] - The country maintains its position as the world's largest manufacturing power and leading goods trader, supported by a comprehensive industrial system and strong supply chain integration [4][6] Group 2 - New consumer products and channels are driving growth, with notable sales increases in various sectors, including home appliances and e-commerce [5][6] - The domestic market is expanding, contributing over 80% to economic growth in the past five years, indicating a strong demand base for various industries [6][8] - Companies are diversifying their markets to mitigate risks, with many establishing overseas operations and partnerships, enhancing their resilience against international uncertainties [7][8] Group 3 - The high-tech manufacturing sector is growing rapidly, with a 9.7% increase in value added, reflecting the emergence of new productive forces [8][9] - China is advancing in technological innovation, with significant achievements in areas such as artificial intelligence and semiconductor production, positioning itself as a global leader in these fields [9][10][11] - The talent pool is expanding, with a focus on STEM education, contributing to a shift from demographic dividends to talent dividends [12][13] Group 4 - Foreign investment is on the rise, with a 4.3% increase in newly established foreign enterprises, indicating a growing confidence in China's market [15][19] - China is actively participating in global economic integration, hosting international trade events and expanding its trade partnerships, which enhances its global economic standing [16][20] - The country is committed to institutional openness, with policies aimed at attracting foreign investment and fostering a favorable business environment [18][19] Group 5 - Macroeconomic policies are effectively supporting economic stability, with coordinated efforts to stimulate consumption and investment, leading to positive market responses [22][25] - The government is implementing proactive measures to address economic challenges, ensuring a stable environment for businesses and consumers [26][27] - Historical experiences in macroeconomic management have equipped China to navigate current uncertainties, reinforcing confidence in its economic trajectory [24][28]