Group 1 - Oil and gas concept stocks strengthened, with Jerry Holdings and Intercontinental Oil rising over 7% [1] - Oil and gas resource-related ETFs increased by approximately 2% due to the rise of heavy-weight stocks [1] Group 2 - Specific ETFs showed the following performance: - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (code: 563150) at 1.100, up 0.022 (2.04%) - Oil and Gas ETF Boshi (code: 561760) at 1.107, up 0.020 (1.84%) - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (code: 159309) at 1.148, up 0.020 (1.77%) [2] - Brokerages indicate that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand structure remains favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [2] - The recovery of the macro economy is expected to boost chemical demand, and in the long term, the clearing of chemical product capacity is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large-scale refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.73%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.16%, and ChiNext Index down 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - Energy metals, steel, and battery sectors showed strong gains, while gaming, power equipment, and coal sectors faced significant declines [1] Fund Flows - Major capital inflows were observed in energy metals, steel, and insurance sectors [1] ETF Performance - Rare metals, oil and gas, and battery-related ETFs performed well, likely driven by recent news [2] - The cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. and the suspension of a 24% reciprocal tariff for one year may positively impact market sentiment [2] Strategic Asset Insights - Small metals are viewed as having irreplaceable strategic uses, leading to an increase in overseas valuations that may elevate domestic strategic asset values [2] - The potential for a valuation reset across all domestic strategic assets is anticipated, not limited to rare earths [2] Oil and Gas Sector Outlook - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook for oil supply and demand remains positive, with a focus on major oil companies and oil service sectors [3] - A potential increase in oil prices could benefit upstream assets, while improved demand and supply management may favor midstream refining [3] Battery Industry Trends - The battery sector is benefiting from dual demand drivers in power and energy storage, with production capacity currently unable to meet demand [4] - Lithium battery demand is projected to grow by 40% for the year, with significant increases in global energy storage battery demand expected to reach 550 GWh by 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [4] - Price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are anticipated, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [4]

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's manufacturing sector showed resilience despite entering a traditional off-season, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7%, the highest level in three months, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][3]. - The continuous rise in PMI over the past two months suggests that macroeconomic recovery is underway, supported by recent policy measures [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In June, the production index and new orders index were recorded at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity and improved market demand [4][5]. - The easing of external pressures, particularly in US-China trade relations, has contributed to a stabilization in manufacturing operations and a rebound in market demand [4][5]. Export and Inventory Trends - The new export orders index rose to 47.7%, showing improvement, although it remains below the expansion threshold, indicating that domestic demand is slightly outperforming external demand [5][6]. - The finished goods inventory index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, while raw materials inventory rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, suggesting a growing willingness among enterprises to replenish stocks [5][6]. Price Trends in Manufacturing - The indices for major raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices both increased by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [5][6]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, while high-energy-consuming industries showed slight improvement with a PMI of 47.8% [5][6]. Enterprise-Level Insights - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, indicating continued expansion, while medium-sized enterprises saw a recovery with a PMI of 48.6%. However, small enterprises experienced a decline with a PMI of 47.3% [6]. - The overall economic resilience suggests that, barring significant external shocks, China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the second half of the year [6].

Group 1 - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, marking a rise of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic improvement [1][2] Group 2 - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; however, small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, down by 2 percentage points [3] - Various sub-indices showed positive changes, with production, new orders, and export orders indices rising between 0.2 to 2.6 percentage points, indicating a general recovery across different industries [4] - The logistics and procurement analyst noted that the slight PMI increase reflects the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at boosting demand, although the overall PMI remains below the growth threshold [4][5] Group 3 - The Non-Manufacturing PMI has consistently remained above 50% this year, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which has increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in demand [6][8] - In the construction sector, the Business Activity Index rose to over 52%, reflecting increased investment-related activities, supported by expanded special bond allocations [7] - The financial services sector also showed growth, with both the Business Activity Index and new orders index exceeding 60%, indicating heightened activity as the quarter ends [7] Group 4 - Overall, the average Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for the second quarter was 50.4%, similar to the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - As policy benefits gradually materialize, investment and consumption-related demand are expected to continue to improve, enhancing the internal driving force of economic operations [8]