国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月下降 0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 服务业运行稳定 1月份，受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百 分点，非制造业总体景气水平有所回落。 "但从企业感受来看，市场需求不足的问题趋于缓解。"中国物流信息中心专家文韬表示，1月份反映市 场需求不足的制造业企业比重为54.9%，较上月下降9.4个百分点，意味着当前的市场需求放缓属于正常 变化，市场需求趋稳运行态势没有改变。 新动能延续扩张态势，产业结构持续优化。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0% 及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好；装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间；消费品行 业和高耗能行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 从价格看，受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 ...

企业预期保持乐观 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月下 降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从供需两端看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需 求有所回落。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月 下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 1月份，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展信 心较强。 文韬认为，1月份，受季节性因素和外部因素影响，制造业运行有所波动，但市场需求有趋稳迹象，生 产活动保持扩张，市场价格联动上升，产业结构继续优化，制造业后市回稳运行具备基础。预计2月 份，受春节假期影响，制造业运行或继续有所放缓。随着春节过后经济社会回归正常运行，制造业将继 续 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长 霍丽慧：从行业来看，农副食品加工、铁路、船舶、航空航天设备等行业的生产指数和新订单指数都高于 56%，相关行业产需释放较快。 从非制造业情况看，2026年1月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%。 中国物流与采购联合会副会长 何辉：服务业总体还是保持比较平稳的，金融业保持在65%以上的较高景气水平。 0:00 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会今天（31日）发布2026年1月份中国采购经理指数。数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张 态势，产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。 2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.3%。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳 中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 金融业支持实体经济力度保持强劲、新动能发展态势稳健、部分消费相关服务业表现良好成为支撑服务业稳定的主要因素。 1月份，在元旦假期消费带动下，部分消费相关行业表现良好。铁路运输业商务活动指数保持在53%以上的较高水平，景区服务业商务活动指数较上月上 升，升至51% ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in production activities [1][2] - Various sub-indices, including production, new orders, and export orders, showed declines ranging from 0.1 to 2.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand and production activities across enterprises of all sizes [2][3] - The overall economic imbalance of supply exceeding demand continues to develop, leading to increased downward pressure on the economy, necessitating stronger macroeconomic policy adjustments [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, with several sub-indices, such as inventory and input prices, showing increases between 0.2 and 1.1 percentage points [1][4] - The new orders index remained stable compared to the previous month, indicating steady operational activities in the non-manufacturing sector, supported by holiday consumption [4][5] - Significant increases were observed in sectors like transportation, retail, and construction, with business activity indices exceeding 60%, suggesting a positive trend in investment and consumption-related activities [5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be strengthened and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, suggesting a stabilization in market demand [4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal peak in production and sales, with procurement activities and employment showing positive trends [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [5] - There is an expectation of improved market conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by holiday demand and infrastructure projects, which will likely boost consumption and production activities [5] - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 54.1%, reflecting increased optimism among manufacturers regarding market developments [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with slight declines in the service sector and construction industry, indicating a mild slowdown [9] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with business activity and new orders indices rising over 5 percentage points, reflecting strong online shopping trends [9][10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover in the fourth quarter, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic policies [10]

Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance macroeconomic policy effectiveness and stimulate internal economic growth [1] - The State Council reiterated the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month below the growth threshold [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index increased to 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by seasonal weather conditions, while infrastructure-related activities continued to show robust growth [10] Consumer Behavior - The summer consumption effect began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer consumption has not yet significantly impacted these areas [11][12] Policy Implications - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of releasing internal demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [12] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [12]

Economic Policy and Measures - The State Council emphasizes the need to anchor annual development goals and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stimulating internal economic momentum [1][4] - Implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies aims to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector Performance - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite weak demand, manufacturing production activities expanded, with a production index of 50.5%, although it decreased by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [6][9] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for July was 52.6%, reflecting an increase in confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, indicating a slowdown in construction activities due to seasonal weather impacts [10] Consumer Behavior and Seasonal Trends - Summer consumption effects began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer spending was more focused on outdoor and entertainment activities rather than dining [13] Future Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to effectively release internal demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption [14] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [14]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].