近日，国家统计局发布了9月中国采购经理指数。 分行业看，9月制造业三大重点行业较快扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为 51.9%、51.6%和50.6%，均明显高于制造业总体。同时上述重点行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于扩张 区间，企业供需两端较为活跃；高耗能行业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。 9月，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体 产出略有加快。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，9月以来，政策持续温和发力。政府债继续加快发行，央行通过 多种政策工具投放流动性，新型政策性金融工具加速落地，支持服务消费政策持续加码等，共同带动经 济尤其是制造业边际好转。 企业生产扩张加快 9月，制造业PMI比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续回升。企业生产扩张加快，市场需求景气度有所改善。 当月生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，升至近6个月高点；新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升 0.2个百分点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析 ...

中国物流信息中心分析师武威说，年末的"年底效应"与"节日效应"将带动投资和消费相关需求集中释 放，建筑业和服务消费景气度均将有所回升。同时，一系列系统性政策举措将逐步显效，市场预期有望 稳步改善，内需潜力将继续释放，为四季度经济回升向好势头巩固提供支撑。 从行业看，三大重点行业较快扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.9%、51.6% 和50.6%，均明显高于制造业总体，同时上述重点行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于扩张区间，企业供 需两端较为活跃；高耗能行业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。 "生产经营活动预期指数为54.1%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续三个月回升，表明制造业企业对近期 市场发展预期向好。从行业看，农副食品加工、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期 指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展信心较强。"霍丽慧说。 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看，邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传 输服务、货币金融服务等行业 ...

Core Viewpoints - The traditional sectors are experiencing weakened growth, while new momentum shows a significant recovery, necessitating attention to the effects of stable growth policies in key industries [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved, with a rise of 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, aligning with seasonal expectations. The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][7][73]. - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a slower recovery compared to previous years. The demand structure continues to show that external demand is outperforming internal demand, with new export orders rising more significantly than domestic orders [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, driven by stronger production, while the price indices for raw materials and factory output remained resilient [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - The PMI for new momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, showed significant improvement, with the equipment manufacturing PMI rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% and high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone at 51.9% [2][19][74]. - Conversely, high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI slightly recovering by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI dropped 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and cultural activities, experienced a significant decline in business activity indices, falling below critical levels [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional momentum faces downward pressure on both quantity and price, new momentum is accelerating its support for the economy. Continuous monitoring of the effects of new incremental policies is essential [3][75]. - The upcoming stable growth policies in key industries like construction materials and steel are expected to mitigate the risks associated with the downturn in infrastructure and real estate sectors [3][75].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September shows a slight recovery, indicating improved production activity, with the production index rising to 51.9% from 50.8% in the previous month [2][4][11]. Group 1: Production Strengthening - The overall PMI index for September is 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, primarily driven by a rebound in production [4][9]. - The recovery in production is attributed to stronger performance in the midstream and downstream sectors, with the midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reaching 51.9% and the consumer goods PMI at 50.6% [4][9]. - Factors contributing to this recovery include inventory replenishment and strong external demand, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI increase to 50.9% in August and a 7.3% year-on-year growth in port container throughput in September [4][9]. Group 2: Data Insights - The September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, with specific indices showing: production index at 51.9%, new orders index at 49.7%, new export orders index at 47.8%, employment index at 48.5%, and raw material inventory index at 48.5% [2][11]. - The price index shows a decline, with the PMI output price index at 48.2%, continuing below the neutral line for 16 consecutive months [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month but still below last year's level, while the service sector remains in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.1% [3][14]. Group 3: Expectations and Comprehensive Output - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1% in September, reflecting increased confidence among businesses, particularly in sectors like food processing and automotive [3][14]. - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities across sectors [3][14].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase from the previous value of 49.4%[2] - The production index within the PMI rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from 50.8%[4] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5%[10] Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reached 51.9%, significantly better than the previous 50.5%[4] - The consumer goods PMI improved to 50.6%, compared to 49.2% previously[4] - The construction industry PMI is at 49.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from last month but lower than last year's 50.7%[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index fell to 48.2%, down from 49.1%, marking 16 consecutive months below the boom-bust line[11] - The main raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, slightly down from 53.3%[11] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, up from 53.7%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities[10]

PMI 数据 2025 年 09 月 30 日 9 月 PMI: 新动能接力旧动能 - 中采 PMI 点评 (25.09) 事件: 9 月 30 日, 国家统计局公布 9 月 PMI 指数, 制造业 PMI 为 49.8%、前值 49.4%; 非制造业 PMI 为 50%、前值 50.3%。 核心观点：传统领域增长走弱下, 新动能景气明显回升, 需关注重点行业稳增长政策效果。 ● 制造业方面, 9 月 PMI 积极改善,结构上呈现生产指数修复好于新订单的格局。9 月制 造业 PMI 较前月回升 0.4pct 至 49.8%，整体符合季节性。从主要分项看，价格指数保持 韧性下，生产指数升至近 6 个月高点 (51.9%) ，较前月上行 1.1pct，明显好于季节性 (0.3pct) 。生产走强带动企业加快原材料采购,采购量指数回升 1.2pct 至 51.6%。而 新订单指数回升幅度不及往年同期（0.6pct），较前月仅上行 0.2pct 至 49.7%。 需求结构延续外需好于内需的态势, 表现为新出口订单回升幅度大于内需订单。拆分需求 结构看, 9 月, 新出口订单指数 ( +0.6pct 至 47.8% ) ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September rose to 49.8%, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing activity [1][4]. - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while the new orders index rose to 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [1][5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed strong expansion, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [6]. - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold line, achieving its highest level this year [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index improved to 48.5%, indicating a better employment situation in manufacturing, while the raw materials inventory index rose to 48.5%, suggesting a slowdown in inventory reduction [4][7]. - The production expectations index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.1%, showing a positive outlook among manufacturers for upcoming market conditions [7]. Group 4: Price Dynamics - The purchasing price index for raw materials was at 53.2%, indicating a slight decrease but still in the expansion zone, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, suggesting a contraction in output prices [6]. - The gap between raw material purchasing prices and factory prices widened to 5.0 percentage points, indicating a shrinking profit margin for manufacturers [6].

核心观点：传统领域增长走弱下，新动能景气明显回升，需关注重点行业稳增长政策效果。 事件： 9月30日，国家统计局公布9月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.8%、前值49.4%；非制造业PMI为50%、前值 50.3%。 制造业方面，9月PMI积极改善，结构上呈现生产指数修复好于新订单的格局。 9月制造业PMI较前月回升0.4pct 至49.8%，整体符合季节性。从主要分项看，价格指数保持韧性下，生产指数升至近6个月高点（51.9%），较前 月上行1.1pct，明显好于季节性（0.3pct）。生产走强带动企业加快原材料采购，采购量指数回升1.2pct至 51.6%。而新订单指数回升幅度不及往年同期（0.5pct），较前月仅上行0.2pct至49.7%。 需求结构延续外需好于内需的态势，表现为新出口订单回升幅度大于内需订单。 拆分需求结构看，9月，新出口 订单指数（+0.6pct至47.8%）上行幅度明显好于内需订单（+0.1pct至50%）。今年以来，外需改善叠加中国在新 兴市场的份额提升，支撑出口持续超预期；高频指标显示，9月外贸货运量同比上行1.8pct至7.8%，说明出口仍 维持韧性。 观察行业看，代表新动 ...

宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 2025 年 09 月 30 日 9 月 PMI：新动能接力旧动能 —— 中采 PMI 点评（25.09） 事件：9 月 30 日，国家统计局公布 9 月 PMI 指数，制造业 PMI 为 49.8%、前值 49.4%； 非制造业 PMI 为 50%、前值 50.3%。 ⚫ 核心观点：传统领域增长走弱下，新动能景气明显回升，需关注重点行业稳增长政策效果。 制造业方面，9 月 PMI 积极改善，结构上呈现生产指数修复好于新订单的格局。9 月制 造业 PMI 较前月回升 0.4pct 至 49.8%，整体符合季节性。从主要分项看，价格指数保持 韧性下，生产指数升至近 6 个月高点（51.9%），较前月上行 1.1pct，明显好于季节性 （0.3pct）。生产走强带动企业加快原材料采购，采购量指数回升 1.2pct 至 51.6%。而 新订单指数回升幅度不及往年同期（0.6pct），较前月仅上行 0.2pct 至 49.7%。 需求结构延续外需好于内需的态势，表现为新出口订单回升幅度大于内需订单。拆分需求 结构看，9 月，新出口订单指数（+0.6pct 至 47.8%）上行幅度明显好于 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI's increase aligns with seasonal trends, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 percentage points (pct) compared to the previous value[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index rose to 51.9% (+1.1pct), indicating stronger supply than demand[2] - The new orders index increased to 49.7% (+0.2pct), while the new export orders index was at 47.8% (+0.6pct), showing resilience in external demand[2] - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains skewed towards supply exceeding demand[2] Group 3: Price Index Trends - The price index declined after three consecutive increases, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2% (-0.1pct) and the factory price index at 48.2% (-0.9pct)[2] - This reflects a weakening impact of "anti-involution" policies on upstream raw material prices, shifting focus to the actual implementation of policies[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9% (+1.4pct), marking the highest point since March[2] - The consumer goods sector PMI increased to 50.6% (+1.4pct), driven by seasonal demand ahead of the upcoming holidays[2] - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI fell to 47.5% (-0.7pct), consistent with previous price index trends[2] Group 5: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3pct to 50.0%, slightly below the five-year average[2] - In the service sector, travel-related consumption saw a seasonal decline, while financial services maintained high activity levels[2] - The construction PMI was at 49.3% (+0.2pct), with weather conditions impacting project initiation[2]