[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月04日 [淡季Table_NewTitle] 回落，关注两会定调 ——国内观察：2026年2月PMI 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [table_main] ➢ 事件：3月4日，国家统计局公布2月官方PMI数据。2月，制造业PMI为49.0%，前值49.3%； 非制造业PMI为49.5%，前值49.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：2月制造业PMI受春节假期影响季节性回落，但与同样春节较晚的年份相比并 不弱。价格指数的分化，可能反映下游需求的改善，消费品PMI低位回升也较为积极， 高技术及中游装备制造业PMI淡季依然偏稳。出口方面，新出口订单指数弱于季节性， 或受前置需求短期透支的影响。开年以来，主要政策接续，短期关注"开门红"的兑现， 以 ...

2026 年 3 月 4 日 总量研究 春节效应拖累制造业景气度 ——2026 年 2 月 PMI 点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 开年经济成色几何？——2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评（2026-01-31） PMI 重回扩张区间，助力全年经济圆满收官 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评（2025-12-31） 出口改善推动制造业 PMI 回稳——2025 年 11 月 PMI 点评（2025-11-30） 制造业 PMI 为何超季节性回落？——2025 年 10 月 PMI 点评（2025-10-31） 要点 制造业 PMI 连续两个月回升，后续怎么看？ ——2025 年 9 月 PMI 点评（2025-09-30） 8 月经济运行的三点特征——2025 年 8 月 PMI 点评（2025-08-31） 7 月制造业 PMI 缘何回落？——2025 年 7 月 PMI ...

2 月 PMI：春节短期因素扰动较大 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 04 日 —2026 年 2 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 2 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，仍处 于收缩区间。我们认为，由于今年春节假期相较去年延长，同时假期处于中 下旬，节后复工的强度更多将体现于 3 月数据上而非 2 月。从结构上看，制 造业企业生产指数有所放缓至收缩区间，而市场有效需求仍显不足。从行业 角度来看，高技术制造业 PMI 仍处于扩张区间，消费品行业景气水平有所回 升但仍处于收缩区间，装备制造业及高耗能行业较上月小幅回落。 2 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.5%，较上月有所放缓，非制造业商务活动 指数为 49.5%，比上月小幅回升。受春节假日效应带动，居民出行消费相关 行业景气度回升，而建筑业处于淡季景气下降。 我们认为，在树立和践行正确政绩观的指引下，或将更多注重经济的高质量 发展而非短期数量增长，通过高技术制造业引领，兼顾数量与质量的"开门 红"。2 月 28 日国家统计局党组召开会议对开展树立和践行正 ...

PMI 数据 2026 年 03 月 04 日 如何理解 2 月 PMI 下行? 中采 PMI 点评（26.02） 事件: 3 月 4 日，国家统计局公布 2 月 PMI 指数, 制造业 PMI 为 49%、前值 49.3%; 非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%、前值 49.4%。 核心观点：2 月 PMI 进一步回落，或源于春节假期偏长、偏晚对供给端产生较大约束。 ● 制造业 PMI: 受春节假期偏长、偏晚的影响, 2 月制造业 PMI 进一步回落。2 月, 制造 业 PMI 在前月低基数下，进一步回落 0.3 个百分点至 49%。虽然 PMI 分析已考虑季节性 因素，但 2026 年春节效应对制造业 PMI 影响仍较明显。 一是今年春节假期长达 9 天、 为"史上最长"，会约束制造业景气度。二是今年春节假期位于 2 月中下旬，而 2 月 24 日(正月初八)假期结束后复工偏慢，PMI 采集时间恰好在该时间段，也会影响 PMI 读数。 服务业 PMI 回升,新订单指数有所下行。2 月,服务业 PMI 小幅回升,单月上行 0.2 个 百分点至 49.7%。主要分项中,新订单指数有所回落,较前月下行 1.4 个百 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 3月4日，国家统计局公布2月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值49.3%；非制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49.4%。 核心观点：2月PMI进一步回落，或源于春节假期偏长、偏晚对供给端产生较大约束。 制造业PMI：受春节假期偏长、偏晚的影响，2月制造业PMI进一步回落。 2月，制造业PMI在前月低基数下，进一步回落0.3个百分点至49%。虽然PMI分析 已考虑季节性因素，但2026年春节效应对制造业PMI影响仍较明显。一是今年春节假期长达9天、为"史上最长"，会约束制造业景气度。二是今年春节假期位 于2月中下旬，而2月24日(正月初八)假期结束后复工偏慢，PMI采集时间恰好在该时间段，也会影响PMI读数。 从PMI分项看，春节假期对供给端压制明显，令制造业生产指数的回落幅度大于新订单指数。 PMI统计对象是采购经理，虽然新订单统计包括中间需求，生 产端走弱会拖累新订单指数；但春节假期造成的供给侧走弱对生产端影响更大，制造业生产指数降幅较大、较前月下行1个百分点至49.6%，新订单指数较前 月下行0.6个百分点至48.6%；其中内需订单指数回落0. ...

宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 从行业看，春节假期停工对行业产生普遍影响，其中资本密集型行业 PMI 有较大回落， 劳动密集型行业景气度维持低位。从统计局公布的四大类行业 PMI 来看，春节假期停工 对行业供给产生了普遍约束，其中高技术制造业、装备制造业 PMI 较前月分别回落 0.5、 0.3 个百分点至 51.5%、49.8%；劳动密集型行业如消费品制造业、高耗能行业 PMI 维 持低位，分别为 48.8%、47.8%。 非制造业 PMI：春节假期的不对称影响进一步体现，建筑业 PMI 继续下滑，与出行相关 的服务业 PMI 则延续改善。传统基建亦受春节效应的影响，建筑业景气度在前月低基数 的影响上进一步回落 0.6 个百分点至 48.2%。而服务业 PMI 有所改善，较前月回升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%。结构上看，与居民出行消费相关的住宿、餐饮等行业 PMI 均位于 60% 以上高景气区间，零售、航空运输等行业 PMI 也升至 52%以上。 展望后续：复工复产推进叠加扩内需政策加码下，PMI 或有回升，后续重点关注内需领 域的边际变化。春节假期等短期因素扰动 2 月 PMI 景气度，但制造业、建筑业 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 points to 49.3, primarily due to seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, which fell by 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0, down 0.5 points, while equipment manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 points to 50.1[2] - The consumer goods and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 48.3 and 47.9, reflecting declines of 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The automotive sector saw a significant decline, with retail sales of passenger cars dropping by 37% in January compared to the same period last year[2] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January 2026, impacting the petrochemical and chemical industries negatively[2] - The non-ferrous and black metal sectors experienced increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling[2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Construction Sector - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to lead in performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity range[5] - The construction sector's PMI fell by 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal declines observed in previous years[6] - New orders in the construction sector decreased by 7.3 points, indicating a slowdown in demand[8] Group 4: Service Sector Trends - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months[10] - Financial services, including monetary finance and capital market services, maintained high activity levels, with indices above 65[10] - The transportation and information services sectors saw declines in their PMIs, while residential services experienced a slight increase of 1.6 points[10]

1月份中国采购经理指数有所回落 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧 （三）大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。 大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作 用持续显现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所 回落。 （四）高技术制造业持续领跑。 高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水 平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行 业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 （五）企业预期保持乐观。 生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食 品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间， 相关企业对近期行业发展信心较强。 解读2026年1月中国采购经理指数 2026年1月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对 此，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 1月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [1] - The production index was at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [1] - Industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace showed strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like petroleum and automotive experienced a slowdown with indices below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, influenced by recent increases in commodity prices, marking an improvement in the overall price level in the manufacturing market [1] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.4%, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, maintaining a strong performance, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, indicating expansion [2] Group 3 - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw declines in their PMIs to 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, showing optimistic expectations among enterprises, particularly in the agricultural and food sectors [2] - Macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, focusing on expanding domestic demand, with recent government initiatives aimed at stimulating consumption [3]