Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for March 2026 is reported at 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2][4] - The production index rose by 1.8 percentage points, while the new orders index increased by 3.0 percentage points, reflecting a positive trend in manufacturing activities[4][12] - The proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand decreased to 48.5%, down 6.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first drop below 50% since July 2022[12] External Demand and Trade - The new export orders index surged to 49.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in external demand[18] - The import orders index also rose to 49.8%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in trade activities[18] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%, outpacing the factory price index, which rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, indicating rising cost pressures for businesses[21] - Both raw material and finished goods inventory indices saw a slight increase, with raw material inventory rising to 47.7% and finished goods inventory to 46.7%[22] Service Sector - The service sector PMI improved to 50.2%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, driven by post-holiday resumption of work[24] - Key sectors such as transportation and financial services showed strong business activity indices above 55.0%, while retail and hospitality sectors experienced a decline[24]

Core Viewpoint - In March 2026, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment with manufacturing PMI at 50.4%, non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.1%, and composite PMI output index at 50.5% [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4% in March, reflecting increased market activity as companies resumed operations post-Spring Festival [2]. - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 51.4% and 51.6% respectively, indicating accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2]. - Large, medium, and small enterprises all saw a rise in PMI, with large enterprises at 51.6%, medium at 49.0%, and small at 49.3%, showing significant improvement in sentiment for smaller firms [2]. Group 2: Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.1%, marking 14 consecutive months above the critical point, indicating a positive development trend [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries also showed expansion with PMIs of 51.5% and 50.8% respectively [3]. - The price index for major raw materials surged, with purchasing price index at 63.9% and factory price index at 55.4%, reflecting a significant increase in market prices [3]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [5]. - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.2%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth [5]. - The construction industry also saw an improvement, with a business activity index of 49.3%, reflecting a recovery in construction projects post-holiday [5]. Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall positive trend in production and business activities across sectors [6]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this increase, standing at 51.4% and 50.1% respectively [6].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4%, indicating a return to the expansion zone, driven by increased market activity post-Spring Festival [4] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 51.4% and 51.6% respectively, reflecting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [4] - Large, medium, and small enterprises all showed PMI increases, with large enterprises at 51.6%, medium at 49.0%, and small at 49.3%, indicating a general improvement in economic conditions [4][5] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.1%, marking 14 consecutive months above the critical point, indicating a positive development trend [5] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also saw PMIs of 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, both entering the expansion zone [5] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices significantly increased to 63.9% and 55.4%, respectively, due to rising commodity prices and increased procurement activities [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, showing an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [7] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.2%, with significant growth in sectors like rail transport and financial services, while retail and hospitality lagged behind [7] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.3%, with a positive outlook for future activities as indicated by a business activity expectation index of 50.5% [7] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall improvement in production and business activities across sectors [8] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this increase, standing at 51.4% and 50.1% respectively [8]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In February, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 points to 49.0, with high-tech manufacturing PMI at 51.5, down 0.5 points[3] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 48.8, showing seasonal strength related to the Spring Festival[3] - Among 17 sub-sectors, non-metallic mineral products PMI rose by 1.8 points, while specialized equipment saw a decline of 5.0 points[5] Price Trends - In February, the factory price index remained flat compared to the previous month, with notable increases in sectors like petroleum processing (up 15.5 points) and general equipment (up 3.1 points)[7] - Several industries, including non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical fibers, experienced significant price declines, with non-ferrous metallurgy down 10.2 points[7] Economic Outlook - The service sector PMI rose by 0.2 points to 49.7, with significant increases in hospitality and entertainment sectors, reflecting a "long holiday effect" on consumer spending[12] - The construction sector showed a slight recovery, with housing construction PMI up 1.3 points, although overall construction PMI fell by 0.6 points to 48.2[10] Emerging Industries - The new energy sector is the only strategic emerging industry with a PMI above 50, increasing by 5.2 points, indicating expansion[9] - Energy-saving and environmental protection industries also saw improvements, with PMIs rising by 3.1 points, reflecting government support for eco-friendly projects[9]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined due to seasonal disruptions from the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, with input inflation being a key concern moving forward [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a lower-than-average performance for this time of year due to the holiday disruption [2]. - The production index was notably affected, particularly impacting small and medium-sized enterprises, while high-tech manufacturing remains in the expansion zone [2]. - The consumer goods sector's PMI increased to 48.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, driven by consumption policies [2]. Supply and Demand Index - The supply and demand index experienced a seasonal decline, with new export orders showing a significant drop, although domestic demand remains relatively stable when seasonal factors are excluded [3]. - Industries such as agricultural processing and computer communication equipment are expanding, while textiles and automotive sectors remain below the critical point [3]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials has slightly decreased, while factory prices remain stable, potentially improving revenue expectations for businesses [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector showed stable performance with a slight increase in the business activity index, although there is significant structural differentiation [3]. - Industries related to consumer travel, such as accommodation and dining, are experiencing rapid growth, while capital market services and real estate are operating at low levels [3]. - The construction sector's business activity index has marginally declined due to the holiday, with some projects temporarily halted [3]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on supporting overall demand [4]. - The Central Political Bureau has indicated a commitment to more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with potential for further interest rate cuts [4]. - There will be an emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding investment, including infrastructure projects like parking lots and charging stations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The February PMI further declined, likely due to the long and late Spring Festival holiday imposing significant constraints on the supply side [3][9]. Manufacturing PMI - In February, the manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 49%, influenced by the long Spring Festival holiday, which lasted 9 days, the longest on record [3][4][9]. - The production index fell more sharply than the new orders index, with the production index down 1 percentage point to 49.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6% [3][12]. - The internal demand orders index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.1%, and the new export orders index dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 45% [3][12]. Industry Analysis - The Spring Festival holiday caused widespread impacts across industries, with capital-intensive industries experiencing significant declines in PMI, while labor-intensive industries maintained low levels of activity [4][16]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs fell by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points to 51.5% and 49.8%, respectively [4][16]. - Labor-intensive sectors like consumer goods manufacturing and high-energy industries maintained low PMIs of 48.8% and 47.8% [4][19]. Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI showed asymmetric effects from the Spring Festival, with the construction PMI continuing to decline, while service-related PMIs improved [4][18]. - The construction PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, while the service PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% [4][18]. - Sectors related to consumer travel, such as accommodation and dining, had PMIs above 60%, indicating high levels of activity, while retail and air transport PMIs rose above 52% [4][18]. Future Outlook - With the resumption of work and production alongside increased domestic demand policies, the PMI may rebound, with a focus on marginal changes in domestic demand [5][22]. - Despite the short-term disruptions from the Spring Festival, expectations for manufacturing and construction have improved, with production activity indices rising [5][22]. - The government's focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is gradually becoming more effective, suggesting that the resilience of domestic demand may surpass that of external demand [5][22]. Regular Tracking - The manufacturing PMI continued to decline, with new orders and export orders indices both falling [6][28]. - The service PMI saw a slight increase, but the new orders index decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 45.7% [6][34]. - The construction PMI continued to decline, with the new orders index showing a marginal increase of 2.1 percentage points to 42.2% [6][38].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.3% in January[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.5%, compared to 49.4% in January[2] - The seasonal decline in manufacturing PMI is less severe compared to similar late Spring Festival years since 2015, with a smaller drop of -0.3 percentage points[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Insights - The production index fell to 49.6%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points, but remains slightly stronger than the seasonal average decline of -1.55 percentage points[2] - New orders index decreased to 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points, aligning closely with the seasonal average decline of -0.55 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.0%, with a decline of 2.8 percentage points, slightly weaker than the seasonal average of -0.68 percentage points[2] Group 3: Price Index and Sector Performance - The main raw material purchase price index was 54.8%, down 1.3 percentage points, while the factory price index remained stable at 50.6%[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points, both remaining above the growth line[2] - Consumer goods PMI showed a positive trend, increasing to 48.3%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating improved downstream demand[2] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector and Construction - The non-manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, outperforming the seasonal average decline of -0.25 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points, but still stronger than the seasonal average decline of -2.28 percentage points[2] - The construction activity expectation index remained above the growth line at 50.9%, indicating potential stabilization in investment[2]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for February 2026 is reported at 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and below the expected 49.7%[2][5] - The production index decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 49.6%, and the new orders index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%[5][14] - Large enterprises saw an increase in PMI by 1.2 percentage points to 51.5%, while small enterprises dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 44.8%, the lowest level since 2023[6] Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 54.8%, indicating a slowdown in price increases[24] - The factory price index remained stable at 50.6%, suggesting a reduction in cost pressure for enterprises[24] Service Sector - The service sector PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, driven by increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival[29] - Despite the increase, the service sector PMI has remained below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, influenced by the return of workers during the Spring Festival[32] - The new orders index for construction increased by 2.1 percentage points to 42.2%, but still indicates low activity levels[32]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for February is 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction phase[1] - The production index for manufacturing dropped to 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage points, also reflecting a contraction[3] - The composite PMI output index fell to 49.5%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from January[8] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decrease from last month[3] - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points, indicating strong resilience and competitiveness[3] - The consumer goods sector's PMI improved but remains in contraction at 48.8%[24] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand[4] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.0%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, affected by the holiday season[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased slightly to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, supported by holiday-related consumption[7] Group 4: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 54.8%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating a slowing increase in raw material costs[6] - The factory price index remains stable at 50.6%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued upward pressure on prices[6]

Manufacturing PMI - February Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 49% from the previous month's 49.3%[1] - The production index fell by 1 percentage point to 49.6%, while the new orders index declined by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%[2] - New export orders dropped significantly by 2.8 percentage points to 45%[2] Non-Manufacturing PMI - Non-Manufacturing PMI slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5% from 49.4% in January[1] - The construction sector's PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, while the service sector's PMI improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%[3] - Sectors related to consumer travel, such as accommodation and catering, showed high PMI levels above 60%[3] Industry Impact - Capital-intensive industries experienced a significant PMI decline, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing dropping to 51.5% and 49.8%, respectively[3] - Labor-intensive sectors like consumer goods manufacturing and high-energy industries maintained low PMI levels at 48.8% and 47.8%[3] Future Outlook - The PMI is expected to rebound as production resumes and domestic demand policies are strengthened, with a focus on marginal changes in domestic demand[4] - Manufacturing and construction sectors show improved expectations, with production activity indices rising to 53.2% and 50.9% respectively[4]