Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend strength of silicomanganese is 1, both indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) rating [3]. 2. Core Viewpoint - The silicomanganese market is expected to have a relatively strong and volatile trend driven by the macro - market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of FeSi2508 and FeSi2509 are 5858 and 5874 respectively, with an increase of 206 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 2,281 and 310,983, and the open interests are 8,773 and 191,798. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of FeMn2508 and FeMn2509 are 6006 and 6012 respectively, with an increase of 100 and 98 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 1,259 and 410,587, and the open interests are 11,074 and 346,266 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (+20), the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.3 yuan/ton - degree (+0.3), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 558 yuan/ton (-206), the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 312 yuan/ton (-78). The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton (0), and that of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 6 yuan/ton (+2). The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 148 yuan/ton (-106), and that of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 138 yuan/ton (-108) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 22, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (+70), in Gansu is 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton (+100). The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1000 - 1020 dollars/ton, and that of 75 is 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - A steel mill in Shandong's Rizhao company set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5840 yuan/ton in cash, a 350 - yuan/ton increase from the previous round, with a quantity of 420 tons. Another steel mill in Shandong set the purchase price of silicomanganese at 5950 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 900 tons [2].

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - **Trend strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - **Macro and industry news**: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - **Macro and industry news**: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental data**: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - **Trend strength**: 0 [22] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - **Trend strength**: 0 [26]