Core Viewpoint - Caocao Travel has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the largest technology ride-hailing platform in the market, with significant advantages in scale, business ecosystem, and innovative exploration in the industry [1][12]. Group 1: Business Performance and Financials - Caocao Travel's projected GTV for 2024 is expected to reach 17 billion yuan, holding the second-largest market share in the ride-hailing industry [1]. - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is reported at 7.631 billion, 10.668 billion, and 14.657 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 39% [1]. - The adjusted net loss is expected to narrow from 1.65 billion yuan in 2022 to 724 million yuan in 2024, indicating improving financial health [6]. Group 2: Custom Vehicle Advantages - By the end of 2024, Caocao Travel will operate a fleet of over 34,000 self-owned custom vehicles across 31 cities, with plans to expand to 50,000 vehicles [2]. - The proportion of custom vehicle GTV to total GTV is projected to increase from 5.3% in 2022 to 25.1% in 2024, showcasing a growing trend [2]. - The average hourly income for drivers has increased from 30.9 yuan in 2022 to 35.7 yuan in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of approximately 27 yuan [3]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Profitability - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for Caocao's custom vehicles is significantly lower than typical electric vehicles, with reductions of 33% and 40% for its two main models [4]. - The adjusted driver income and subsidies as a percentage of ride service revenue decreased from 84.2% in 2022 to 79.0% in 2024, while vehicle service costs dropped from 7.9% to 3.53% [4]. - The gross margin improved from -4.44% in 2022 to 8.09% in 2024, reflecting the positive impact of the custom vehicle model on profitability [4]. Group 4: Competitive Advantage and Market Position - Caocao Travel has established a unique supply-side barrier through its custom vehicle ecosystem, which is difficult for competitors to replicate due to the required automotive industry background [8]. - The shift towards aggregation platforms has increased competition, making it essential for ride-hailing services to differentiate themselves beyond mere scale [7]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its partnership with Geely to enhance its capabilities in automated driving and vehicle manufacturing, creating a closed-loop ecosystem [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Robotaxi Development - The emergence of Robotaxi is expected to fundamentally change the cost structure and profitability model of the ride-hailing industry, with significant market potential projected [10]. - By 2030, the domestic market for Robotaxi is anticipated to exceed 488.8 billion yuan, with a penetration rate of 36% in the shared mobility sector [10]. - Caocao Travel's existing supply-side advantages are expected to strengthen further as the Robotaxi era approaches, positioning the company favorably in future market competition [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with second-tier platforms rushing to IPO while facing market saturation and profitability challenges [3][4][5]. Group 1: IPO Activity - On April 30, Cao Cao Mobility updated its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4]. - On May 9, Xiangdao Mobility announced a C-round financing of 1.3 billion yuan, marking the largest single financing in the industry in nearly three years, and has initiated its IPO process [4]. - The IPO rush is characterized by a competitive landscape where major players like Didi hold over 70% market share, while second-tier platforms are struggling to differentiate themselves [7][11]. Group 2: Market Saturation and Profitability Issues - The market is facing saturation, as evidenced by the failed IPO of Shengwei Times due to continuous losses and regulatory penalties [5]. - Platforms like GAC's Ruqi Mobility have seen their market value plummet from 8 billion HKD to 2.3 billion HKD due to poor financial performance and slow progress in Robotaxi commercialization [6]. - The dependency on third-party aggregation platforms has led to a "flow trap," where platforms pay high commissions to acquire orders, squeezing already thin profit margins [9][31]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Cao Cao Mobility's total revenue is projected to grow from 7.63 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.66 billion yuan in 2024, but its net losses remain significant, with a projected loss of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024 [16][32]. - The share of orders from third-party platforms for Cao Cao increased from 49.9% in 2022 to 85.4% in 2024, indicating a growing reliance on these platforms [17][22]. - Ruqi Mobility's revenue from third-party platforms rose from 28% in 2022 to 59% in 2023, highlighting a similar trend across the industry [20]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The ride-hailing market is structured in a pyramid, with Didi at the top, followed by strong players from traditional automotive companies, and smaller niche players [7][11]. - The aggregation model has fundamentally changed the competitive rules of the ride-hailing industry, with platforms increasingly dependent on major aggregators like Gaode and Meituan for order distribution [24][30]. - The shift towards aggregation has diminished brand recognition and user loyalty for second-tier platforms, as they struggle to retain customers and collect valuable user data [31][39]. Group 5: Future Strategies - To achieve higher valuations in the capital market, second-tier platforms are attempting to tell differentiated stories, such as Cao Cao's focus on customized vehicles and Ruqi's emphasis on autonomous driving [41][43]. - Cao Cao Mobility is leveraging its parent company Geely's resources to produce customized vehicles, which has contributed to a significant increase in its gross transaction volume (GTV) from 4.5% to 25.3% [45]. - Ruqi Mobility is betting on the future of Robotaxi services, although its revenue from this segment remains negligible, and it faces high barriers to entry in terms of technology and capital [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The ride-hailing industry in China is experiencing a bifurcation, with second-tier platforms pushing for IPOs while facing market saturation and profitability challenges [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Activity - On April 30, Cao Cao Travel updated its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - On May 9, Enjoy Travel, a subsidiary of SAIC Group, announced it had completed a C-round financing of 1.3 billion yuan, marking the largest single financing in the industry in nearly three years, and is accelerating its IPO process [2]. - Other second-tier platforms, such as T3 Travel and Shengwei Times, are also at critical junctures in their IPO plans, with T3's CEO indicating that the IPO timeline is imminent [5]. Group 2: Market Saturation and Profitability Issues - Shengwei Times' IPO prospectus became invalid due to ongoing losses and regulatory penalties, highlighting the profitability struggles within the industry [3]. - The market is characterized by a "pyramid" competition structure, with Didi holding over 70% market share, while other players are fragmented into four distinct factions [3][7]. - Cao Cao Travel's reliance on third-party platforms for 85% of its orders indicates a shift from self-sourced to aggregated orders, raising concerns about profitability [5][12]. Group 3: Dependency on Aggregation Platforms - The increasing dependency on aggregation platforms has led to a significant rise in commission payments, with Cao Cao's commission expenses growing from 322 million yuan in 2022 to 1.046 billion yuan in 2024 [17][18]. - The share of orders from third-party platforms for Cao Cao has increased from 49.9% in 2022 to 85.4% in 2024, indicating a shift in the operational model [14][15]. - User retention rates are declining, with Cao Cao reporting a drop in user retention to below 28% in 2023 due to increased reliance on third-party platforms [19][21]. Group 4: Differentiation Strategies - To achieve higher valuations, second-tier platforms are attempting to tell differentiated stories, such as Cao Cao's focus on customized vehicles leveraging its parent company, Geely's resources [22][23]. - Enjoy Travel is pursuing a mixed operation model that includes Robotaxi services, although its commercial progress has been slow [24][25]. - The competition in the autonomous driving sector is intense, with significant barriers to entry, and the success of these strategies remains uncertain [25][28].