（文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间2月11日，美国国会预算办公室发布《2026年至2036年预算与经济展望》执行摘要。报告显 示，在现行税收和支出法律基本不变的假设下，2026财年美国联邦预算赤字预计为1.9万亿美元，占国 内生产总值（GDP）的5.8%；到2036年，赤字将扩大至3.1万亿美元，占GDP的6.7%债务方面，公众持 有的联邦债务2026年占GDP比重为101%，到2036年将升至120%，超过1946年创下的106%历史高位。经 济展望部分显示，2026年实际GDP增长率为2.2%，随后在2027年至2036年间平均放缓至1.8%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that economic growth in China and India is expected to remain stable, but China faces significant challenges, particularly deflation [2][3] - The actual GDP growth rate in China is projected to remain stable when adjusted for price changes, but nominal GDP growth is expected to continue to be sluggish [2][3] - China is anticipated to transition from deflation to low inflation by 2026, with a complete exit from deflation expected by 2027 [3] Group 2 - The outlook for the Japanese economy is described as very optimistic [3] - Despite global economic uncertainties, Asian stock markets, including those in China, Japan, and India, have shown resilience recently [2]

Core Insights - The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has revised its economic growth forecast for this year down to approximately 2% due to weak domestic and external demand [1] - The inflation forecast has been increased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.1%, aligning with recent short-term inflation estimates [1] Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be around 2%, which is a downward adjustment from previous forecasts [1] - Key economic sectors such as personal consumption, investment, and trade have been negatively impacted [1] - The main driver of economic growth in the short term is expected to be personal consumption, which is the largest component of the macroeconomic total [1] Inflation - The Central Bank has raised its inflation rate estimate for the year to 4.1% [1] - This adjustment reflects a consistent trend with recent short-term inflation estimates [1] - The Central Bank emphasizes that predictions regarding actual GDP and its components face high uncertainty due to various risks [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, highlighting the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and the distorting effects of tariffs [1] - Despite fluctuations in overall GDP data, actual economic growth is gradually slowing under persistent uncertainty, with tariffs expected to rise further, impacting consumer prices by the end of the year [1] - Nuveen forecasts that U.S. economic growth will continue to slow but can avoid recession, with a projected core inflation rate of around 3.0% in 2025, potentially suppressing real income growth and overall economic performance [1] Group 2 - In fixed income, municipal bonds offer attractive yields and income advantages, remaining appealing even amid ongoing market volatility [2] - Nuveen sees investment value in preferred loans, currently yielding between 6.5% and 8%, with significant market opportunities available [2] - A substantial amount of loans, totaling $225 billion, is trading below $95, with an average price around $85 and a three-year maturity yield of approximately 16% [2]