王爷说财经讯：突发！扛不住了！美联储主席鲍威尔暗示降息！ 那么为什么美联储要降息？这对中国又会有何影响？今天这篇文章就和大家一起来聊聊！ 1、美联储主席鲍威尔暗示降息！ 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发言，那话里话外，竟然暗示了美联储可能在接下来几个月里降息！ 这消息一传出，全球金融市场瞬间像炸开了锅，要知道美联储的决策，向来都是牵一发而动全身，影响着世界经济的走向。 8月22日，美股三大指数暴涨，道指创新高；美元暴跌超1%；黄金冲破3400美元/盎司。 鲍威尔在会上表示，美国经济在高关税和收紧移民政策的双重压力下，虽然展现出一定韧性，但劳动力市场和经济增长放缓的迹象已愈发明显。 尽管通胀问题仍不容忽视，可就业市场面临的风险正在上升，这很可能推动美联储在9月采取降息举措。 2、美联储为何要降息？ 那鲍威尔为啥突然暗示降息呢？ 从数据层面来看，今年上半年美国经济增长放缓至1.2%，仅仅是2024年同期的一半，消费支出的疲软"贡献"不小。 劳动力市场方面，新增非农就业数据也出现了向下修正的情况。虽说通胀依旧高于美联储2%的目标，但鲍威尔认为关税所带来的影响或许只是一次性冲 击。 此 ...

金十数据7月22日讯，Insight Investment的分析师Francesca Fornasari在一份报告中表示，随着美国经济增 长放缓，2025年下半年美元可能进一步走软。她说，经济疲软可能会为美联储进一步降息铺平道路。美 元作为全球储备货币的地位继续下降，也会给美元带来压力。不过，考虑到美国政策前景的不确定性以 及当前针对美元的空头押注已相当激进，美元的跌势应该是渐进且温和的。 机构：随着美国经济增长放缓，美元料进一步下跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is still growing, but the momentum of growth has significantly slowed down [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces increased risks regarding employment targets [1] - After an approximate economic growth rate of 1% in the first half of the year, the economy is expected to remain "soft" for the remainder of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe that tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants expect that the future economic growth in the United States will slow down [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - Majority of Federal Reserve participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth in the United States [1] Inflation Concerns - Tariffs are viewed as a continuous factor influencing inflation risks [1]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market and the broader economic context, highlighting the impact of disappointing macroeconomic data on the US dollar and the potential for silver prices to rise or fall based on upcoming economic reports and technical levels. Economic Context - The US dollar is under pressure following disappointing macroeconomic data, with silver prices stabilizing around $34.50 as traders are hesitant to push prices outside this range [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, while the market is closely watching for any pause in the ECB's year-long easing cycle [3] - Recent US economic data indicates a contraction in service sector activity for May, marking the first decline in nearly a year, raising concerns about economic growth and inflation [3] Silver Market Analysis - Current spot silver price is $34.76 per ounce, with various other silver trading metrics provided [2] - Silver is showing a bullish trend technically, having risen over 5% recently, and is poised to challenge the $35.00 level, which could lead to a test of the 13-year high of $37.49 [4] - If silver closes below the peak of $34.58 from March 28, it may decline to $34.00, with further support at $33.69 [5] Employment Data Expectations - Investors are awaiting the US May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of 130,000 new jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [4] - A poor performance in the upcoming employment data could exert additional downward pressure on the US dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will depreciate by approximately 9% by mid-next year due to anticipated interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth, potentially reaching levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Impact - The report highlights that a commonly used dollar index is expected to decline from its current level, reflecting the ongoing pressures on the dollar from trade tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The leading economic index in the U.S. fell to 99.4 points in April, marking the largest decline since March 2023, raising concerns about the economic growth outlook [1][9] Group 1: Reasons for Decline in Leading Economic Index - Global economic slowdown significantly impacts the U.S. economy, with factors such as international trade tensions, slowing growth in emerging markets, and global policy uncertainty contributing to the decline [3] - Domestic policy uncertainty, including adjustments in fiscal policy, changes in tax policy, and regulatory environment, leads to cautious investment and expansion decisions by businesses [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecasts - The forecast indicates that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will slow to 1.6% by 2025, lower than previous expectations, reflecting market concerns about the growth outlook [5] Group 3: Inflation Pressures - Despite the economic slowdown, inflationary pressures remain, with the inflation rate in the U.S. rising over the past year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6] Group 4: Policy Adjustments and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve may need to adjust monetary policy in response to the anticipated economic slowdown, potentially leading to more accommodative measures to support growth, which will impact market interest rates and asset prices [8] - Market expectations regarding the U.S. economic growth outlook have shifted, with investor concerns about the slowdown potentially leading to increased market volatility, particularly in equity and bond markets [9]

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]