Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue due to Trump's trade policies is being considered for debt repayment and potential tax refunds to citizens [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue has surpassed $100 billion this fiscal year, with projections to reach $300 billion by year-end [1][3]. - The increase in tariff revenue is a direct result of Trump's high tariff policies, which have provided substantial income to the U.S. Treasury [3][5]. Group 2: Use of Tariff Revenue - Trump is contemplating using the tariff revenue for repaying federal debt or issuing tax refunds to specific income groups, although details on thresholds and amounts remain unspecified [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury has reported a surplus of several billion dollars from tariffs, indicating a significant financial boost from these policies [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. faces substantial fiscal pressure, exacerbated by the recent "Big and Beautiful" tax reform, which is expected to increase federal debt significantly [5]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the tax reform could lead to a $3.4 trillion increase in the federal deficit over the next decade [5]. Group 4: Impact on Consumers - While tariffs are imposed on foreign imports, the actual burden falls on U.S. importers, including major retailers and manufacturers, which may lead to increased consumer prices if costs are not absorbed [6]. - Current inflation reports indicate that if tariffs continue to rise, there could be widespread price increases for consumer goods in the U.S. [6].

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

新华财经北京6月18日电 美国国会预算办公室（CBO)与国会联合税收委员会（JCT)近日发布的一项重 要评估指出，若特朗普政府的支出计划及税改法案最终获得通过并实施，未来十年内联邦债务将增加约 2.8万亿美元。相较于此前不含宏观经济影响的初步估算增加了0.4万亿美元，表明新版本中纳入了经济 增长和利率变化等因素后，对财政赤字的影响更为显著。 面对民主党议员的整体反对，共和党内部对于医疗补助削减等关键政策也存在分歧。尽管如此，特朗普 已向议员们施压，要求尽快就这项被称为"伟大美丽法案"的立法达成一致，以作为其立法议程的核心部 分。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管白宫方面暂未对此作出回应，但此前白宫官员曾批评CBO的计算方法存在问题，并坚称该法案有 助于缩小赤字。白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran在接受电视采访时强调外界对CBO估算反应过 度。 此次CBO发布的报告正值参议院审议自身版本法案的关键时刻。参议院版本延续了特朗普在2017年首 次任期内推出的个人减税政策，并新增多项减税条款，包括免除小费和加班工资的税收。与此同时，众 议院已于5月以微弱优势通过了其版本的法案，而两院共和党人正努力在7月4日 ...

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill with a narrow margin, which has sparked controversy due to significant cuts to social security funding and concerns over increasing federal deficits [1][2][3] - The bill aims to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, provide new tax deductions, increase defense spending, and allocate more funds for immigration enforcement while cutting green energy incentives and raising eligibility thresholds for medical assistance and food aid [1][2] Group 1 - The bill includes a reduction of nearly $800 billion in medical assistance funding, which is expected to have a significant political risk as it affects a large portion of the population relying on this program for health insurance [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the bill becomes law, the lowest 10% of households will see a decrease in resources, while the highest 10% will benefit [2] - The bill is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3 trillion compared to a baseline scenario where Trump's tax cuts would not be extended [3] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenses [3] - The bond market has shown volatility, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.15%, reflecting investor concerns over the federal government's debt issues [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed the need for the government to adhere to fiscal discipline, warning that the current deficit levels are unsustainable [4]