报告预计，2026财年（2025年10月至2026年9月）美国财政预算赤字将达到1.9万亿美元，相比此前预期 上调1000亿美元，占美国国内生产总值（GDP）的5.8%。同时，这一机构还调整了2026财年至2035财 年的赤字总额预期，较去年1月的预测增加了1.4万亿美元。 国会预算办公室表示，到2036财年，美国财政预算赤字预计将增至3.1万亿美元，占GDP比例上升至 6.7%。过去50年，赤字占GDP的平均水平为3.8%。 随着巨额赤字持续增长，美国联邦债务也将不断累积。国会预算办公室预计，公众持有美国债务占GDP 的比重预计将从2026财年的101%升至2036财年的120%，超过1946年曾达到106%的历史高位。 国会预算办公室分析，净利息增长是美国财政预算赤字增长的主要原因。另外，美国政府相关政策也推 动赤字增长。例如，政府去年调整移民政策大幅减少了移民净流入，缩减了人口预期，对税收和经济增 长带来影响。（完） 新华社纽约2月11日电（记者刘亚南）美国国会预算办公室11日发布2026财年至2036财年预算和经济展 望报告，大幅上调美国财政预算赤字预测规模。国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦戈尔当天警告 ...

特朗普总统重塑了美国经济政策，但财政预算前景依然严峻。 作者：安德鲁・杜埃伦 在第二任期首年，特朗普总统试图彻底重塑美国经济。他大幅减税、将关税提高到近百年最高水平、单 方面取消联邦开支、收紧移民政策，并施压美联储大幅降息。 但从整体联邦预算来看，这些剧烈政策的效果几乎相互抵消。未来几年，美国仍将以经济学家眼中令人 担忧的规模举债。不过至少从纸面数据看，在特朗普这套非传统政策组合下，财政状况只是略有恶化， 并未显著失控。 这是无党派核算机构 —— 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）在周三发布的年度长期财政展望中得出的结 论。与 2025 年 1 月特朗普就职前的预测相比，联邦政府未来九年预计将出现23.1 万亿美元赤字，高于 此前预估的 21.8 万亿美元，缺口扩大 1.4 万亿美元。 国会预算办公室表示，公众持有的债务规模预计将远超经济年度产出，在 2036 年达到国内生产总值 （GDP）的120%。这将超过二战后的水平，使全球最重要经济体面临债务危机失控的风险。 尽管目前特朗普经济政策对预算的影响看似基本相互抵消，但财政状况仍有可能变得更加危险。 共和党与特朗普迄今推出的成本最高的政策，是去年通过的全面个人所得 ...

（文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间2月11日，美国国会预算办公室发布《2026年至2036年预算与经济展望》执行摘要。报告显 示，在现行税收和支出法律基本不变的假设下，2026财年美国联邦预算赤字预计为1.9万亿美元，占国 内生产总值（GDP）的5.8%；到2036年，赤字将扩大至3.1万亿美元，占GDP的6.7%债务方面，公众持 有的联邦债务2026年占GDP比重为101%，到2036年将升至120%，超过1946年创下的106%历史高位。经 济展望部分显示，2026年实际GDP增长率为2.2%，随后在2027年至2036年间平均放缓至1.8%。 ...

最新数据显示，美国财政部发行在外的国债余额首次突破30万亿美元大关，约为2018年的两倍。此 项余额包括国库券、国债票据和长期国债，是美国联邦总债务的核心组成部分。与此同时，美国整体 联邦债务已升至约38.4万亿美元。其中，约30万亿美元为市场持有债务，其余为政府内部账户（如 社会保障信托基金）持有。 更多最新消息： 马克龙访华，商务部：中法签署关于加强双向投资的谅解备忘录；美国财政部发行在外的国债规模突 破30万亿美元；美国防部最新报告称，防长在"泄密门"中行为违反联邦法｜早报 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory remained stable at 15,770.78 tons as of August 13, 2025, with no change from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $38.55 per ounce on August 13, 2025, reflecting a 1.61% increase, with a daily high of $38.71 and a low of $37.88 [1] Group 2 - In July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit increased by 20% compared to the previous year, despite record tariff revenues from President Trump's administration [2][3] - Customs revenue in July 2025 rose by 273% year-over-year, amounting to an increase of $21 billion, but overall spending also increased significantly [2] - The total federal debt is approaching $37 trillion, indicating ongoing financial pressure despite tariff income [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue due to Trump's trade policies is being considered for debt repayment and potential tax refunds to citizens [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue has surpassed $100 billion this fiscal year, with projections to reach $300 billion by year-end [1][3]. - The increase in tariff revenue is a direct result of Trump's high tariff policies, which have provided substantial income to the U.S. Treasury [3][5]. Group 2: Use of Tariff Revenue - Trump is contemplating using the tariff revenue for repaying federal debt or issuing tax refunds to specific income groups, although details on thresholds and amounts remain unspecified [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury has reported a surplus of several billion dollars from tariffs, indicating a significant financial boost from these policies [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. faces substantial fiscal pressure, exacerbated by the recent "Big and Beautiful" tax reform, which is expected to increase federal debt significantly [5]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the tax reform could lead to a $3.4 trillion increase in the federal deficit over the next decade [5]. Group 4: Impact on Consumers - While tariffs are imposed on foreign imports, the actual burden falls on U.S. importers, including major retailers and manufacturers, which may lead to increased consumer prices if costs are not absorbed [6]. - Current inflation reports indicate that if tariffs continue to rise, there could be widespread price increases for consumer goods in the U.S. [6].

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

Group 1 - The CBO and JCT report indicates that if the Trump administration's spending plan and tax reform are implemented, federal debt will increase by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, reflecting a $0.4 trillion increase from previous estimates due to the inclusion of macroeconomic factors [1] - The CBO forecasts that the proposed legislation will boost real GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points over the next ten years, but rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by 0.14 percentage points will lead to increased borrowing costs, outweighing the tax revenue growth from economic expansion [1] - By 2034, public-held federal debt is projected to rise to $33 trillion, reaching 124% of GDP, which is higher than the current baseline forecast of 117% [1] Group 2 - The Senate is reviewing its version of the tax reform bill, which continues the personal tax cuts initiated by Trump in 2017 and introduces new tax relief measures, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay [2] - The Senate bill proposes to permanently retain corporate R&D expense deductions, interest expense deductions, and full asset depreciation deductions, while maintaining a $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which has faced strong opposition from Republicans advocating for SALT reform [2] - The bill also aims to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to avoid potential default risks, amidst overall Democratic opposition and internal Republican disagreements on key policies like Medicaid cuts [2]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill with a narrow margin, which has sparked controversy due to significant cuts to social security funding and concerns over increasing federal deficits [1][2][3] - The bill aims to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, provide new tax deductions, increase defense spending, and allocate more funds for immigration enforcement while cutting green energy incentives and raising eligibility thresholds for medical assistance and food aid [1][2] Group 1 - The bill includes a reduction of nearly $800 billion in medical assistance funding, which is expected to have a significant political risk as it affects a large portion of the population relying on this program for health insurance [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the bill becomes law, the lowest 10% of households will see a decrease in resources, while the highest 10% will benefit [2] - The bill is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3 trillion compared to a baseline scenario where Trump's tax cuts would not be extended [3] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenses [3] - The bond market has shown volatility, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.15%, reflecting investor concerns over the federal government's debt issues [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed the need for the government to adhere to fiscal discipline, warning that the current deficit levels are unsustainable [4]