证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 线上及线下直营高增，海外业务仍有亏损 [Table_Title2] 罗莱生活(002293) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 002293 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 9.96/6.12 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 71.98 | | 最新收盘价： | 8.63 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 71.34 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 826.61 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025H1 公司收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利/经营性现金流分别为 21.81/1.85/1.54/3.77 亿元，同比增长 3.60%/16.97%/9.77%/28.93%；2025H1 美国莱克星顿净亏损 2875 万元，24H1 为亏损 2183 万元，剔除莱克星顿 影响后主业扣非净利为 4.32 亿元、同比增长 18.8%；非经常性损益主要为政府补助 0.28 亿元，同比增加 10.5%。经营现金流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [4][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from government subsidies aimed at boosting home textile sales, particularly through online channels [2][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and developing high-quality products, which is anticipated to improve sales margins in the e-commerce channel [3][4]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with projected revenues of 44 billion, 47 billion, and 49 billion respectively, and net profits of 3.9 billion, 4.1 billion, and 4.3 billion [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 90 million, a decrease of 4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.5 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million, a 24% increase year-on-year [1]. - The annual revenue for 2024 was 4.2 billion, a slight decrease of 0.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 400 million, down 3% year-on-year [1]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is committed to developing high-quality products, including an ergonomically designed pillow that has received multiple certifications and patents [3]. - The company has upgraded its flagship product, the "ice cream quilt," to the 5.0 and 5.0 Pro series, which exceeds national standards for cooling performance [3]. - Collaborations with popular IPs such as Hello Kitty and others have enhanced the brand's reputation and product value [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [4][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from government subsidies aimed at boosting home textile sales, particularly through online channels [2][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and developing high-quality products, which is anticipated to improve sales margins in the e-commerce channel [3][4]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with projected revenues of 44 billion, 47 billion, and 49 billion respectively, and net profits of 3.9 billion, 4.1 billion, and 4.3 billion [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 90 million, a decrease of 4% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 1.5 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million, reflecting a 24% increase [1]. - The annual revenue for 2024 was 4.2 billion, a slight decrease of 0.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 400 million, down 3% [1]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is committed to developing high-quality products, including an ergonomically designed pillow that has received multiple certifications and patents [3]. - The flagship product, the "ice cream quilt," has undergone significant material and technology upgrades, enhancing its cooling properties and breathability [3]. - The company is expanding into the smart home textile sector with products like smart pillows and mattresses, leveraging its R&D capabilities [3]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 360 million, resulting in a payout ratio of 97% [1].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.193 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 367 million for 2024, showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 1.77% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.51 billion, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 23.56% and a non-recurring net profit increase of 30.98%, attributed to home textile subsidies and internal adjustments [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 926 million, with a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 3.79% and a non-recurring net profit decrease of 9.84% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The online channel generated a revenue of 2.299 billion in 2024, a decrease of 3.75%, but the gross margin improved by 3.19 percentage points to 42.96% due to product structure optimization and reduced promotional efforts [2] - Offline revenue from franchise and direct sales was 1.333 billion and 325 million respectively, with franchise revenue increasing by 1.46% while direct sales declined by 6.51% [2] - The company’s core product category, bedding, maintained stable revenue of 2.029 billion, while pillow sales grew by 8.18% to 316 million [2] Margin and Expense Overview - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 41.4%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points, benefiting from improved online channel margins and product structure optimization [3] - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 24.43%, 4.47%, 1.96%, and 0.17% respectively, with increases attributed to higher wage expenses and reduced interest income [3] - By Q1 2025, the gross margin rose to 43.9%, while the net profit margin was 9.7%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory and Cash Position - The company’s inventory at the end of 2024 was 1.012 billion, an increase of 5.21%, with inventory turnover days rising by 3.3 days to 144.62 days [3] - As of Q1 2025, inventory grew to 1.080 billion, a 6.72% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a need to monitor inventory clearance [3] - The company had a strong cash position with monetary funds reaching 835 million by the end of Q1 2025 [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic home textile industry, continuing to deepen its "Good Bedding, Choose Mercury" strategy, with an increasing market share [4] - Despite a soft demand in the home textile industry since Q2 2024, Q4 saw a sales recovery due to regional home textile subsidy policies, with expectations for continued support in 2025 [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 384 million, 410 million, and 435 million respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see profit improvement in Q1 2025, driven by subsidy catalysts and enhancements in its own production capacity [5] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.4 CNY per share, along with an interim dividend of 0.2 CNY per share, resulting in an annual dividend payout ratio of 115% [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 5.2 billion, 5.9 billion, and 6.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 45.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 4.3 billion CNY, down 24.4% [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 10.9 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 0.6%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.1 billion CNY, up 26.3% [5] - The company's gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 48.0% and 46.0% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 and 2.4 percentage points [8] Business Segment Insights - In the home textile segment, 2024 revenue was 37.4 billion CNY, down 12.4%, with various product lines experiencing different levels of decline [6] - The U.S. furniture segment faced challenges in 2024 with revenue at 8.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 21.5%, but showed signs of recovery with profitability in Q4 2024 and potential for breakeven in 2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 14.3, 12.7, and 11.6 times respectively [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 12.3% in 2025 [9]