研究早观点 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,965.28 | 0.04 | | 深证成指 | | 13,537.10 | -0.49 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,639.37 | -0.38 | | 中小板指 | | 8,264.98 | 0.00 | | 创业板指 | | 3,222.61 | -0.66 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,346.32 | 0.04 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 【今日要点】 【山证宏观】2026 年宏观经济展望：增长动能巩固，名义增速修复 【山证纺服】纺织服饰 2026 年度策略-看好纺织制造板块改善，把握 服装家纺板块结构性机会 【山证中小盘】瑞晟智能公司分析报告-智能工厂装备领军者，算力机 器人双轮驱动 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector in 2025 saw a cumulative increase of 12.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.08 percentage points, ranking eighteenth among thirty-one Shenwan primary industries [3][17] - The sub-sectors of textile manufacturing, apparel and home textiles, and accessories recorded cumulative increases of 9.65%, 11.31%, and 17.43% respectively [3][17] - The PE-TTM for the textile and apparel sector stands at 20.32 times, which is at the 76.86% percentile of the past five years [3][17] Group 2: Domestic Consumption - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [4][30] - The consumer confidence index improved from 86.4 at the end of 2024 to 89.4 in October 2025 [4][30] - Retail sales of textiles and apparel, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, and sports/entertainment products grew by 3.5%, 4.8%, 13.5%, and 16.4% respectively from January to November 2025 [4][30] Group 3: International Consumption - U.S. apparel sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.34% as of October 2025, with inventory levels at a low since 2022 [4][34] - European retail sales indices have turned positive since 2024, maintaining steady low single-digit growth in 2025 [4][34] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports reached 35.91 billion USD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4][44] Group 4: Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector faced revenue growth challenges in 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of only 4.3% and a decline in net profit by 5.6% [5][46] - The sector's performance was impacted by U.S.-China tariff pressures, leading to cautious ordering from brands [5][46] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers like Yuanyuan Group, Shenzhou International, and Huali Group, which have lower exposure to U.S. markets and strong recovery potential [5][67] Group 5: Apparel and Home Textiles - The apparel sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a focus on consumer performance and innovation in home textiles [8][4] - Companies like Ge Li Si and Jiangnan Buyi are highlighted for their stable performance, with Ge Li Si showing a 40.2% increase in net profit in Q3 2025 [8][4] - The home textiles sector is driven by major products, with companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles showing significant revenue growth [8][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [12] Core Insights - The home textile industry has maintained stable growth, with new opportunities arising from the emergence of big-ticket items. Mercury Home Textiles, a leading player in the industry for nearly 40 years, has built differentiated competitive advantages through continuous product upgrades, leading e-commerce channel layouts, and a focus on big-ticket items [4][8] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, with a notable increase in gross margin from 35.3% in 2020 to 44.2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][22] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mercury Home Textiles, originally established as "Longgang Jiangnan Garment Factory" in 1987, has a clear growth path, moving to Shanghai in 2000 and launching its sub-brand, Belis, in 2002. The company has focused on e-commerce since 2008 and has seen steady revenue growth [7][20] Industry Landscape - The home textile market has remained stable, with a size of approximately 300-350 billion yuan over the past five years. The market is fragmented, with the top three brands holding around 1% market share each, and Mercury Home Textiles leading the industry [8][46] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has upgraded its product structure, focusing on high-value items. The sales of comforters have become a significant part of its revenue, with the company ranking first in global comforter sales in 2023-2024. The e-commerce channel has become a major growth engine, with over 50% of revenue coming from online sales [9][32] Marketing Strategy - Mercury Home Textiles has expanded its brand influence through various marketing strategies, including celebrity endorsements and collaborations with KOLs on platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin. This multi-faceted approach aims to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [10][57]

Core Viewpoint - The home textile industry in China is transitioning from growth driven by wedding and real estate demands to a focus on daily replacement and quality upgrades, with online sales channels rapidly increasing their market share [2][4][5]. Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - The Chinese home textile market is projected to reach approximately 327.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable growth forecast of low single-digit percentages in the coming years [4][5]. - Daily replacement and quality upgrades are becoming the main drivers of demand, as the industry matures and consumer preferences shift [11][21]. - E-commerce sales are expected to rise from 14% in 2019 to 34% by 2024, highlighting the growing importance of online channels [12][4]. Consumer Behavior and Product Innovation - There is an increasing consumer focus on sleep health, which is driving demand for functional bedding products [21][22]. - Pillows are becoming a priority for consumers due to their lower price point and higher replacement frequency, facilitating market growth for innovative products [22][23]. - New brands, such as Atour, are capitalizing on this trend by offering functional sleep products and leveraging online marketing strategies [23][24]. Traditional Brands and Market Strategies - Established brands like Luolai and Mercury are responding to new market dynamics by launching functional sleep products and enhancing their marketing efforts [30][35]. - Traditional brands are beginning to adopt a "big product" strategy, focusing on fewer, high-impact items to drive sales growth [30][32]. - The supply chain capabilities of traditional brands are becoming increasingly important as they expand into higher-end products [37]. Competitive Landscape and Market Concentration - The market concentration in the home textile industry remains low, with the top five brands holding only 3.7% of the market share in 2024 [17][20]. - Atour has rapidly increased its market share from 0.1% in 2022 to approximately 0.7% in 2024, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [17][20]. - Traditional brands are gradually improving their market positions through enhanced online and offline channel strategies [20][39].

Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the recovery of upstream orders and emphasizes the importance of brands that can adapt and innovate in response to consumer needs [2][19]. Brand Apparel - The domestic brand apparel industry has entered a phase of stock competition, with limited growth opportunities. The performance of leading brands is increasingly reliant on their ability to attract consumers rather than on channel expansion [2][19]. - Three key areas for growth are identified: new home textiles, functional apparel, and strongly differentiated brands. Notable recommendations include: - New Home Textiles: Driven by the sleep economy and self-care consumption, brands like Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai Life are expected to perform well [2]. - Functional Apparel: Brands such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Bosideng are positioned to benefit from the growing health and outdoor lifestyle trends [2]. - Strongly Differentiated Brands: Companies like Cotton Era, focusing on 100% cotton products, are experiencing rapid growth [2]. - High dividend stocks recommended include Hailan Home, Luolai Life, and Semir Apparel [2]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes a decrease in uncertainty regarding tariff policies, stabilization in European and American retail, and low inventory levels among international brands, suggesting a potential recovery in upstream orders [2][19]. - Recommendations for textile manufacturing companies include Shenzhou International, Weixing Co., and Huali Group, with a focus on high dividend stocks like Yuyuan Group and Jingyuan International [2]. Market Performance Review - The textile and apparel sector has seen a slight underperformance compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 12.45% as of December 9, 2025, compared to a 16.84% increase in the CSI 300 index [7][10]. - The apparel and home textile segments have shown similar performance, while the accessories segment has outperformed, with a 17.1% increase [13][14]. Consumer Environment - The domestic consumption environment remains weak, with apparel retail performance lagging behind overall retail growth. For instance, the cumulative year-on-year growth for apparel retail was only 2.9% from January to October 2025 [27][23]. - The consumer confidence index has shown a slight recovery but remains at historical low levels, indicating ongoing challenges in consumer spending [25][27]. Company Performance - The report highlights that many key apparel companies have experienced revenue declines, while a few have maintained growth. For example, companies like Anta, Li Ning, and Bosideng have shown consistent revenue expansion [30][32]. - The profitability of the brand apparel sector has been under pressure, with net profits not keeping pace with revenue growth in many cases [28][32].

服装家纺行业三季报总结：家纺领跑行业回暖，龙头分化 提质增长 20251123 摘要 水星家纺和罗莱生活在 2025 年第三季度分别实现 20%和 10%的营收 增长，主要受益于明星单品的成功推出和前期营销投入，而富安娜虽处 于调整期，仍显示出经营韧性。 罗莱生活和水星家纺前三季度毛利率分别同比上升 2%和 2.8%，得益于 加强营销和控制管理费用，同时存货周转天数分别减少 36 天和 11 天， 运营效率提升。 运动服饰行业在 2025 年第三季度受暖秋和消费疲软影响，终端销售放 缓，大众运动赛道竞争加剧，但跑步和户外品类保持高景气，线上渠道 表现优于线下。 安踏主品牌和斐乐品牌流水同比低单位数增长，其他品牌增长强劲，李 宁全渠道流水下滑但电商增长，特步主品牌和 361 度主品牌线下流水均 实现增长。 亚玛芬体育营收同比增长 30%，归母净利润显著提升，大中华区营收增 长 47%，显示出强劲的增长势头，而安踏、李宁、特步等品牌也在积极 控制库存和优化渠道。 2025 年第三季度，由于暖秋天气及消费疲软影响，运动品牌终端销售节奏有 所放缓，大众运动赛道竞争加剧，各品牌表现分化。从品类来看，跑步及户外 仍保持高 ...

Core Insights - The sportswear industry is experiencing significant demand differentiation due to a warm autumn and weak consumer spending, with running and outdoor categories maintaining high demand, and online channels outperforming offline ones [1][2] - The home textile industry shows a moderate recovery, with leading companies achieving growth through a big product strategy, particularly highlighted by Mercury Home Textile's successful launches of innovative products [1][3] - The apparel industry is slowly recovering from a low base, with men's wear remaining stable but under profit pressure, while women's wear shows signs of recovery, emphasizing the importance of cost optimization [1][4] Sportswear Industry - Demand differentiation is evident, with running and outdoor categories maintaining high demand, while online sales channels outperform offline [2] - Anta Sports shows low single-digit growth in main brand revenue, while other brands within its portfolio achieve 45-50% growth, effectively mitigating market pressures [2] - Li Ning's inventory turnover is at 5-6 months, with expectations for improvement by year-end [2] - Xtep International's main brand revenue shows low single-digit growth, but its sub-brand Saucony performs well with over 20% growth [2] - 361 Degrees reports 10% and 20% year-on-year growth in offline and e-commerce sales, respectively, and expands its superstore count to 93 [2] Home Textile Industry - The overall recovery is moderate, but leading companies leverage big product strategies for superior growth [3] - Mercury Home Textile's Q3 revenue growth accelerates by 20.19%, driven by innovative products like the "ice cream quilt" and "ergonomic pillow," which also boost gross margin by 4.2 percentage points to 44.74% [3] - Luolai Life benefits similarly, with a 9.90% year-on-year revenue increase and a gross margin improvement of 3.8 percentage points to 48.05% [3] - Mercury Home Textile and Luolai Life see significant increases in net profit attributable to shareholders, up 43.18% and 50.14%, respectively [3] - Fuanna is in a phase of channel adjustment and inventory reduction, with a 7.58% year-on-year revenue decline, but plans to launch new products in early 2026 [3] Apparel Industry - The apparel sector is slowly recovering from a low base, with men's wear stable but facing profit pressures [4] - Haier's revenue and profit show slight growth, supported by new business and overseas expansion [4] - Women's wear shows signs of recovery, with cost optimization being crucial [4] - Dizhu Fashion reports double-digit profit recovery in Q3, while other brands like Ge Li Si and Xin He show varying performance with expectations for improvement [4] - Semir sees revenue and profit growth in Q3, while Taiping Bird experiences a loss due to channel and cost structure adjustments [4] Investment Recommendations - For sportswear, focus on leading companies that can maintain market share in a competitive environment, such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees [5][6] - In the home textile sector, prioritize companies like Mercury Home Textile and Luolai Life that show significant growth potential through big product strategies and improved e-commerce efficiency [5] - In the apparel sector, consider brands like Haier and Semir that are managing to improve profitability and expand their market presence [6]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the stabilization of global tariff negotiations, which does not alter the core competitiveness of global manufacturing, and highlights optimism towards two major industrial chains and a price increase cycle [3][4]. Industry Performance Review - As of November 14, 2025, the SW textile and apparel index has increased by 16.9%, ranking 17th in relative performance across the market. The manufacturing sector shows higher certainty compared to brands still in recovery [4][8]. - Domestic demand is at a low point in 2025 but is expected to recover in 2026-2027, focusing on the characteristics of young consumer groups to explore high-growth areas in new consumption [4][21]. New Consumption Trends - High-performance outdoor apparel is identified as a growth area with low penetration and high potential, with the market size projected to reach 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17% year-on-year [4][33]. - Discount retail is highlighted as a scarce high-growth area within the consumption sector, with rapid expansion in urban outlets and hard discount specialty stores [4][46]. - The personal care and cleaning market, particularly wet wipes, is noted for its rapid growth and increasing necessity among young consumers, with a market size in China expected to reach 100 billion yuan [4][62]. - The sleep economy is emerging as a significant market, with explosive growth in household textile products, driven by young consumers' acceptance [4][20]. - The report discusses Nike's innovation cycle, which is expected to benefit from inventory replenishment and product innovation, similar to Adidas's recovery cycle [4][20]. - The Australian wool price increase cycle is anticipated due to supply contraction and demand highlights, with potential market space comparable to previous high points in 2011 and 2018 [4][20]. - The healthcare material upgrade cycle presents broad replacement opportunities for overseas non-woven fabrics [4][20]. Global Manufacturing Insights - The report notes that the resolution of tariff variables is expected to lead to a new growth phase for leading companies [4][27]. - The textile industry has undergone a pressure test for external demand, with recent tariff negotiations expected to boost export chain expectations for 2026 [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth new consumption areas and the competitive strength of global manufacturing as key investment strategies [4][27].

Core Viewpoint - The third-quarter reports of listed companies reflect the resilience and vitality of China's consumer market, indicating a structural adjustment period in the consumption sector with both challenges and opportunities [1] Overall Recovery - The consumer sector shows a steady recovery overall, but there is uneven performance across different segments. Essential consumption remains stable, while discretionary consumption is experiencing a divide [2] - Essential consumption sectors like food and beverages are performing well due to their necessity, with leading companies showing stable revenue and profit growth [2] - The liquor industry, representing traditional high-end consumption, is under pressure, with major companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao reporting significant declines in revenue and profit [2] - In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry is thriving, benefiting from policy support and product upgrades, becoming a key growth driver in the consumer sector [2] Channel Transformation - Traditional retail companies are accelerating their online transformation, integrating online and offline channels to capture market changes, with those embracing digitalization seeing growth [3] Cost Pressures - Global commodity prices remain high, putting pressure on raw material and logistics costs, which challenges the gross margins of mid-to-low-end consumer companies [4] - Companies that optimize product structures and improve supply chain efficiency are demonstrating stronger profitability and market competitiveness [4] Structural Highlights - A number of structural highlights are emerging, driving high-quality development in consumer-related listed companies through innovation in technology, business models, and consumer scenarios [5] - In the smart home sector, companies like Ecovacs and Haier are experiencing significant profit growth, with Ecovacs reporting a 131% increase in net profit [5] - The traditional consumption sector is exploring new business models, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Mercury Home Textiles achieving double-digit growth through innovative product offerings [6] New Consumption Scenarios - Companies are actively transforming to capture new consumption trends, with firms like Golden Dragon Fish and Miaokelando reporting substantial profit increases due to cost improvements and channel optimization [8] - The consumer market is becoming increasingly segmented, with new brands focusing on specific demographics and scenarios, such as new-style tea drinks and pet economy products [8] - Domestic brands are gaining market share and showing strong performance in sectors like sportswear and beauty products, driven by cultural confidence and supply chain advantages [8] Market Dynamics - The consumer market is undergoing structural upgrades, with recovery being uneven due to factors like income expectations and regional disparities [9] - Companies with strong brand barriers and unique market advantages are favored by capital, while those embracing new trends and product iterations can still find growth opportunities [9] - The competition is shifting from traditional versus new consumption to the operational efficiency and strategic vision of different companies within the same industry [9] High-Quality Development - The recovery trend in China's consumer market is moving from total growth to structural optimization, with companies encouraged to focus on high-quality development through innovation [10]

Core Insights - The third-quarter reports of listed companies reflect the resilience and vitality of China's consumer market, indicating a structural adjustment period with both challenges and opportunities [1] Overall Recovery - The consumer sector shows a steady recovery overall, but there is uneven performance across different segments. Essential consumption remains stable, while discretionary consumption is experiencing a divide [2] - Essential consumption sectors like food and beverages are performing well due to their necessity, with leading companies showing stable revenue and profit growth. For instance, Wuliangye reported a 52.66% year-on-year decline in Q3 revenue to 8.174 billion yuan, and a 65.62% drop in net profit to 2.019 billion yuan [2] - In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry is thriving, benefiting from policy support and product upgrades, becoming a key growth driver in the consumer sector [2] Channel Transformation - Traditional retail companies are accelerating their online transformation, integrating online and offline channels. Companies that embrace digitalization are capturing the benefits of this channel transformation [3] Cost Pressures - Global commodity prices remain high, putting pressure on raw material and logistics costs, which challenges the gross margins of mid-to-low-end consumer companies. Companies that optimize product structures and improve supply chain efficiency are showing stronger profitability [4] Structural Highlights - A number of structural highlights are emerging, driving high-quality development in consumer-related listed companies through innovation in technology, business models, and consumer scenarios [5] - In the smart home sector, companies like Ecovacs and Haier are experiencing significant profit growth, with Ecovacs reporting a 131% year-on-year increase in net profit [5] Innovation in Business Models - Traditional consumption sectors are exploring new business models, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Water Mercury Home Textiles achieving double-digit growth through innovative product offerings and marketing strategies [6] New Consumption Scenarios - Companies are actively transforming to capture new consumption trends, with firms like Golden Dragon Fish and Miaokelando reporting significant profit increases due to cost improvements and channel optimization [8] - The rise of domestic brands is notable, with many achieving excellent performance in revenue growth and market share, particularly in sectors like sportswear and beauty products [8] Market Dynamics - The consumer market is undergoing structural upgrades, with disparities in recovery driven by factors such as income expectations and consumer confidence. Companies with strong brand barriers and unique market advantages are favored by capital [9] - The competition is intensifying among quality sectors, with a focus on operational efficiency and strategic vision. Companies that adapt to new trends and innovate their product offerings are likely to find growth opportunities [10]