证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 线上及线下直营高增，海外业务仍有亏损 [Table_Title2] 罗莱生活(002293) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 002293 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 9.96/6.12 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 71.98 | | 最新收盘价： | 8.63 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 71.34 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 826.61 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025H1 公司收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利/经营性现金流分别为 21.81/1.85/1.54/3.77 亿元，同比增长 3.60%/16.97%/9.77%/28.93%；2025H1 美国莱克星顿净亏损 2875 万元，24H1 为亏损 2183 万元，剔除莱克星顿 影响后主业扣非净利为 4.32 亿元、同比增长 18.8%；非经常性损益主要为政府补助 0.28 亿元，同比增加 10.5%。经营现金流 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Atour [1] Core Insights - Atour is a leading lifestyle brand group in the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel sector, focusing on high-quality accommodation and retail business, driving growth through a dual model of "Accommodation + Retail" [2][8] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projections of 93.3 billion, 115.4 billion, and 136.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 15.2 billion, 20.8 billion, and 26.2 billion yuan [3][69] Company Overview - Atour is recognized as the top player in the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel market, with a focus on providing high-quality accommodation experiences and a strong emphasis on mid-to-high-end users [2][8] - The retail segment, particularly in the deep sleep category, has seen rapid growth, with retail revenue share increasing from 9% in 2021 to 30% in 2024 [20][25] Industry Analysis - The hotel industry is experiencing continuous supply growth and structural upgrades, with a notable increase in the number of mid-range and high-end hotel rooms [2][37] - The chain hotel development trend is evident, with the chain rate rising from 19% in 2018 to 41% in 2023, indicating a shift towards more standardized hotel operations [37][46] Competitive Advantages - Atour's brand strength in the mid-to-high-end segment is significant, with a focus on personalized service and standardized methods to enhance user experience [3][54] - The company has rapidly expanded its membership base, growing from 35 million in 2022 to 89 million in 2024, indicating strong customer loyalty and engagement [3][60] Financial Performance - The company's revenue has grown from 1.57 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.7% [25][70] - The gross profit margin has improved from 26% in 2021 to 42% in 2024, driven by a shift in revenue composition towards higher-margin retail sales [30][70] Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts a steady increase in gross profit, with expectations of 40.2 billion, 51.6 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [69][70] - The net profit margin is projected to improve, with net profit rates of 16.3%, 18.0%, and 19.2% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [70] Valuation Analysis - Atour's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 23.1, 17.0, and 13.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating potential for valuation improvement compared to peers [72]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese home textile industry is facing a severe downturn, with declining sales and profits, particularly affecting companies like Fuanna, which is struggling to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Fuanna's projected revenue for 2024 is 3.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.60% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 542 million yuan, down 5.22% year-on-year [1]. - The non-recurring net profit is forecasted at 504 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.47% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The foundation of home textile consumption is eroding, with a significant drop in marriage registrations and new home transactions, leading to reduced demand [2]. - Fuanna's high-end positioning is under threat as online sales channels struggle to maintain quality while competing for traffic [2]. - Internal management issues are evident, with frequent changes in the executive team and significant product inventory buildup, leading to aggressive discounting that undermines brand positioning [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Fuanna plans to invest over 500 million yuan to develop a "smart home ecosystem" in Shenzhen, aiming to transition from home textiles to a broader home and lifestyle market [3]. - The company faces challenges in aligning its online and offline product offerings, creating a disconnect that affects consumer trust [3]. - The low-frequency nature of home textile products limits repeat purchases, highlighting the need for innovative marketing strategies and experiential retail approaches [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The planned smart home project has a lengthy construction timeline, raising concerns about competition from established tech giants by the time it is completed [3][4]. - Fuanna's high-end strategy is hindered by channel fragmentation, and the company must address internal issues to successfully navigate the evolving market landscape [4]. - The company needs to embrace innovation and improve product quality to remain relevant in the face of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a current market price of 20.37 CNY and a corresponding PE ratio of 13X [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid online growth, particularly with its "Deep Sleep Pillow" and "Ice Cream Quilt" products, as consumer demand shifts towards functional upgrades and daily replacement needs [1][7]. - The overall market size for the home textile industry is estimated at 150 billion CNY, with leading brands holding low single-digit market shares [7][12]. - The company has adopted a big product strategy, focusing on high-value items, and has seen significant online sales growth, with online revenue accounting for over 50% of total income [7][32]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41.93 billion CNY in 2024 to 57.15 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% [2][57]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4.16 billion CNY in 2025 to 5.35 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 13% to 14% [2][57]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually, reaching 42.5% by 2027 [57][64]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a weakening correlation between home textile sales and real estate performance, indicating a shift towards daily replacement demand as a primary driver [7][12]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with major brands like Luolai, Ato, and Mercury holding relatively small market shares in the online space [7][12]. - Young consumers are increasingly willing to pay for health-related sleep products, driving sales for innovative offerings [7][26]. Company Strategy - The company focuses on a "core product" strategy, emphasizing high-quality bedding items, which has led to a significant increase in revenue from these categories [32][33]. - Online sales have been a major growth driver, with a notable increase in revenue from e-commerce platforms [38][57]. - Marketing strategies have evolved to target younger demographics, utilizing social media and influencer partnerships to promote key products [51][52].