1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is warming up, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market, but the rising inflation expectations may disturb the short - term sentiment [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 100.18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 and a growth rate of 0.61%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8999, with a month - on - month increase of 0.024 and a growth rate of 0.36%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.29%; DR007 is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.11%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.50, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.47%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change and a decline rate of 0.47% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides figures on the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratio, net positions ratio (top 20), and long - short positions ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][19][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents figures on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][26]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [49][62]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [57][60]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [66][69]. Strategy - Unilateral: The repurchase rate is falling, and the price of Treasury bond futures is oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is affected by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increased uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with an emphasis on "increasing the total amount and optimizing the structure". The expenditure intensity is expected to increase, and the rhythm will continue to be advanced, providing support for stable growth [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%; the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.90% [9]. - **Monthly economic indicators**: The social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year growth is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [10]. - **Daily economic indicators**: The US dollar index is 96.86, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.01%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9106, with a month - on - month increase of 0.003 and a growth rate of 0.04%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 1.73%; DR007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.23%; R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.34% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing prices and price changes**: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 106.02 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 112.68 yuan respectively. The price changes of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively [3]. - **Net basis spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.014 yuan, 0.004 yuan, 0.017 yuan, and - 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central bank operations**: On February 10, 2026, the central bank conducted 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - **Repo rates**: The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.362%, 1.531%, 1.604%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data, including inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and spreads between spot and futures of different maturities, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, and 2*TS - 3*TF + T [32][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [41][45][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [51][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [62][63]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side strategy**: As the repo rate declines, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [4]. - **Hedging strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is 0.80%; PPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is - 1.90% [8] - Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of 0.47%; M2同比 is 8.50%, with a环比 change rate of + 6.25%; Manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a环比 change rate of + 1.83% [9] - The US dollar index is 95.77, with a环比 decrease of 1.28 and a环比 change rate of - 1.32%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9335, with a环比 decrease of 0.020 and a环比 change rate of - 0.29%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.56, with a环比 increase of 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.36%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.60%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.17 and a环比 change rate of + 11.44%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55% [9] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [12][15][19] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and the local government bond issuance [29][32] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][37][38] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][52] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [54][55] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [60][65]