智通财经APP获悉，日本自民党党总裁选举将于10月4日进行投计票。对冲基金正在采取多种策略以从 日本选举重获利，包括计划抛售股票、押注日元升值或者削减风险资产。目前，民意调查结果出现了分 歧。 在税收政策、货币政策立场和财政政策方向上，各候选人存在显著分歧。在最热门的候选人中，高市早 苗倾向于通过更积极的财政扩张促进经济增长，特别是通过扩大地方政府补助和支持低中收入家庭。小 泉进次郎的"经济优先"政策以推动工资增长和扩大投资为核心，他主张通过税收盈余支持财政刺激措 施，维持财政可持续性。 比如对冲基金Epic Partners Investments就已做好准备，一旦股市中的领涨股确定下来，它就会趁机买入 股票以参与任何可能出现的上涨行情。东京这家杠杆基金的首席执行官Hidematsu Take表示："一旦赢家 确定，我打算利用暂时出现的价差进行操作。如果高市胜出，相关股票可能会出现狂欢般大幅上涨，届 时我会考虑卖出。对于小泉，情况也是如此。" 自民党领导人的竞选活动已超越了单纯的党派政治范畴，人们普遍预期获胜者将对长期的利率走向产生 影响。许多关注日本银行动态的人士认为，如果高市胜选，则加息的步伐可能会放缓 ...

Group 1 - Despite expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, hedge funds have turned net sellers in August, reflecting a cautious stance towards buying U.S. stocks [1] - Traditional investors are also net selling U.S. stocks, indicating a broader trend of selling outweighing buying [1] - Research reports suggest that despite global stock markets nearing historical highs, there is a significant risk of large sell-offs [1] Group 2 - Trading activity remains low, with hedge fund leverage levels declining again near the end of August, indicating a cautious approach [4] - The S&P 500 index rose nearly 2% in August, yet hedge funds did not participate in this rebound and continued to sell stocks [4] - A report from Morgan Stanley shows a 1% decrease in leverage used for trading in U.S. and European markets, further highlighting low trading activity [4] Group 3 - Seasonal risk signals are becoming more pronounced, with nearly half of the past 20 years seeing negative returns in September [5] - Regulatory restrictions prevent companies from conducting stock buybacks in September, which could weaken market support [5] - Systematic hedge fund risk limits may hinder their ability to enter the market during potential downturns [6] Group 4 - Cross-market vulnerabilities are emerging, with rising bond yields in countries like Japan and the UK indicating potential risks in other markets [8] - The possibility of a crisis in one market could trigger a chain reaction in others, as evidenced by recent high yields in Japanese and UK bonds [8] Group 5 - The risk of a sell-off cycle is increasing, with U.S. households holding a record proportion of stocks relative to their income [11] - UBS estimates that by 2025, the direct stock holdings of individual investors will reach 265% of disposable income, surpassing previous peaks [11] - The strength of retail buying is noted, but it is also seen as fragile, with potential for significant sell-offs if economic growth slows [11] Group 6 - There has been a record net inflow of funds into the Chinese stock market in August, indicating a shift in investment focus [13] - August is projected to be the largest month for hedge fund purchases of Chinese stocks since February [13]

Core Insights - The hedge fund market experienced a significant increase in May 2024, with a 2.3% rise, marking the largest gain since March 2024, driven by the Bloomberg Stock Hedge Fund Index [5] - Hedge funds have shown a year-to-date increase of 1.7%, with equity funds leading the gains at 3.3%, while macro funds recorded a maximum decline of 1.2% [5] Private Equity Market Review - The report highlights the ongoing trends in private equity fundraising and investment activities, emphasizing the dynamics of the market [3][8] Hedge Fund Market Overview - In the first quarter of 2024, hedge funds reduced their holdings in the "seven major tech giants" while increasing exposure to Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [8] - Despite escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, hedge funds have favored Chinese stocks, particularly Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu [8] - A Chinese hedge fund capitalized on a significant drop in the Chinese stock market in April due to new U.S. tariffs, achieving a 20% return since then and a cumulative return of 1,485% since its inception ten years ago [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that Hong Kong is intensifying tax scrutiny on private equity and venture capital funds, indicating a shift in regulatory focus [9] - PAG is leading the acquisition of 48 shopping centers owned by Dalian Wanda, showcasing active investment strategies in the private equity space [9] - Stonepeak has agreed to acquire the container leasing company Seaco, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the industry [9]