（来源：数据GO） 总体而言，委内瑞拉股市此次大幅上涨虽吸引眼球，却也再次提示全球投资者：在参与规模有限、制度尚不完善的市场时，必须警惕其潜在的波动风险与 信息不对称问题。真正可持续的市场发展，仍需依托于透明的监管、健全的法制与稳定的经济社会环境。 （来源：数据GO） 近日，委内瑞拉股市出现罕见剧烈波动，其核心基准指数——委内瑞拉IBC指数在1月6日单日涨幅超过50%，引发全球财经观察者高度关注。这一走势并 非偶然，近期该指数持续表现强势，屡次成为新兴市场数据中的异动焦点。然而，分析人士指出，这场引人瞩目的涨幅背后，暴露出的是委内瑞拉股市规 模小、流动性匮乏的结构性问题，甚至不排除存在市场操纵的可能。 市场特性：规模有限，流动性低下 加拉加斯证券交易所（BVC）成立于1947年，虽是委内瑞拉唯一的证券交易平台，却是南美洲规模最小的交易所之一。据统计，目前在该所上市交易的 公司仅约15家，而作为国家经济"晴雨表"的IBC指数，其成分股只有11只。市场参与者高度集中，股票多由本地银行、金融机构及少数高净值投资者持 有，日常交易活跃度很低。在这种流动性匮乏的环境中，即使是一笔规模不大的资金进出，也容易引发股价显著波 ...

经历连续疯涨之后，白银坐上了一波"过山车"式行情，1月8日，现货白银继续下跌，截至1月8日15:20，现货白银报76.250美元/盎司、COMEX白银报76.035 美元/盎司，跌幅均超过2%。就在前一日，现货白银与COMEX白银同步"跳水"，盘中跌幅双双突破5%。市场震荡之下，上期所发布相关通知，提示市场波 动风险，并出台调整交易限额、保证金比例及涨跌停板幅度等措施。急刹之后，曾经的"银牛"能否重拾涨势？面对高波动格局，投资者又该如何规避风险、 理性布局？ 白银行情"急刹" 白银的疯狂，始于2025年的全球贵金属"牛市"，这一年，现货白银从年初的低位一路飙升，年初之时报价多徘徊于28—32美元/盎司区间；二季度，白银表 现相对平淡，季度涨幅不足6%；三季度，在美联储降息等因素推动下，白银实现大涨，季度涨幅超29%，最高报价维持在47美元/盎司左右；四季度，贵金 属狂飙行情爆发，白银也先后突破70美元、75美元、80美元，后又于2025年12月29日站上83.971美元/盎司的高位，年内最大涨幅一度来到196%，远超黄金 同期表现，成为资本市场最耀眼的"明星品种"。 市场震荡也引发了期货交易所的警惕，1月7日 ...

格隆汇1月5日｜Scope Markets首席市场分析师Joshua Mahony在报告中指出，美方周末抓获委内瑞拉总 统并计划接管该国石油行业的举动，显著推升了地缘政治紧张局势及市场波动风险。Mahony表示："特 朗普对委内瑞拉资源的觊觎，向投资美国资产的国家发出了额外的风险信号。他已经亮出了底牌——只 要他认为具有战略重要性，他同样会对比邻国家采取军事行动。"他进一步指出，由于全球稳定性面临 可预见的风险，黄金和白银等避险资产的需求正在上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inherent risks associated with individual stocks compared to indices, emphasizing that no company is immune to operational risks and that all companies have a lifecycle. Indices, however, have the ability to adapt and evolve over time [2]. Group 1 - Historical data from the U.S. stock market indicates that the original components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average have all been replaced over time, highlighting the transient nature of individual companies [2]. - From 1926 to 2016, the overall growth of the U.S. stock market was primarily driven by the top 4% of performing stocks, suggesting that identifying these stocks can lead to substantial returns [2]. - Successful investors, such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, exemplify the ability to select high-performing stocks, which is a rare skill among investors [2].

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 232 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 12 月 18 日 8:50-9:30 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、金融工程 1、基于风险角度的大类资产配置策略（邢维洁） 从风险角度进行大类资产配置 以风险管理为基石的现代资产配置哲学，与传统以预期收益为核心的方法不同，风险配 置的起点是量化投资者的风险承受能力，并以此设定明确的风险预算。其核心操作并非简单 地分配资金，而是追求各类资产对投资组合的风险贡献符合预设目标，从而实现真正的风险 分散。这种方法的优势在于能显著改善下行保护，提供更平滑的投资体验，并构建一个对各 种经济环境都具有韧性的反脆弱系统，最终帮助投资者在长期内获得更优的风险调整后收益。 基于风险平价模型的配置策略 作为风险配置理念的典范，风险平价模型被置于研究的中心。该模型通过数学优化，使 不同波动特性的资产对组合总风险产生相等的贡献，从而避免了传统股债组合中风险被股票 资产主导的弊端。回测结果显示，风险平价模型在观测期内实现了 6.1% 的年化收益率，并 将最大回撤控制在 3.4%，夏普比率达到 3.62，展现了 ...

Group 1 - Despite expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, hedge funds have turned net sellers in August, reflecting a cautious stance towards buying U.S. stocks [1] - Traditional investors are also net selling U.S. stocks, indicating a broader trend of selling outweighing buying [1] - Research reports suggest that despite global stock markets nearing historical highs, there is a significant risk of large sell-offs [1] Group 2 - Trading activity remains low, with hedge fund leverage levels declining again near the end of August, indicating a cautious approach [4] - The S&P 500 index rose nearly 2% in August, yet hedge funds did not participate in this rebound and continued to sell stocks [4] - A report from Morgan Stanley shows a 1% decrease in leverage used for trading in U.S. and European markets, further highlighting low trading activity [4] Group 3 - Seasonal risk signals are becoming more pronounced, with nearly half of the past 20 years seeing negative returns in September [5] - Regulatory restrictions prevent companies from conducting stock buybacks in September, which could weaken market support [5] - Systematic hedge fund risk limits may hinder their ability to enter the market during potential downturns [6] Group 4 - Cross-market vulnerabilities are emerging, with rising bond yields in countries like Japan and the UK indicating potential risks in other markets [8] - The possibility of a crisis in one market could trigger a chain reaction in others, as evidenced by recent high yields in Japanese and UK bonds [8] Group 5 - The risk of a sell-off cycle is increasing, with U.S. households holding a record proportion of stocks relative to their income [11] - UBS estimates that by 2025, the direct stock holdings of individual investors will reach 265% of disposable income, surpassing previous peaks [11] - The strength of retail buying is noted, but it is also seen as fragile, with potential for significant sell-offs if economic growth slows [11] Group 6 - There has been a record net inflow of funds into the Chinese stock market in August, indicating a shift in investment focus [13] - August is projected to be the largest month for hedge fund purchases of Chinese stocks since February [13]

Core Insights - The recent recovery in the equity market has prompted many newly established funds to enter the market, with 28 floating-rate funds launched by August 22, showing a maximum weekly return of nearly 8% [1][2] - The current market sentiment is high, leading to rapid positioning by new funds, but caution is advised due to potential volatility from profit-taking [1][5] Fund Performance - The first two batches of floating-rate funds have shown significant signs of positioning, with all 28 funds fully invested by August 22. Eight funds reported returns exceeding 2%, with the highest being 7.81% for the fund established on June 19 [2][3] - Funds established in July exhibited greater net value fluctuations, indicating higher positioning levels, with some funds achieving weekly returns of up to 7.70% [3] ETF Activity - In addition to active equity funds, newly launched ETFs have also increased their stock positions, with 26 ETFs listed since August, rapidly raising their stock allocations shortly after their announcements [4] - For instance, the E Fund ChiNext 50 ETF, launched on August 13, had 94.41% of its assets allocated to index constituents by August 20 [4] Market Dynamics - The current market conditions favor accelerated positioning by fund managers, particularly in a rising market, while caution is exercised in downturns [5] - The influx of new capital from individual investors and the increase in domestic savings, which reached approximately 161 trillion yuan, are significant factors influencing market dynamics [6] Cautionary Notes - Despite the positive market sentiment, some fund managers express caution due to the potential for profit-taking among popular assets, which could lead to volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasizes the need for vigilance to prevent significant market volatility risks [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is alert to potential disruptive fluctuations in the market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts intensify supply concerns, and market volatility risks are rising. From June 14th to 20th, supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected decline in supply, the international liquefied gas market rose strongly across the board. In China, the price of civil gas first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the market was supported by news, but the demand was weak, and the upstream faced pressure in sales and prices declined. The price of etherified C4 continued to rise during the week due to the increase in the operating rate of downstream MTBE. As of June 20th, the market price of etherified C4 in Shandong was 5,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last Friday. In terms of supply, the domestic liquefied gas production decreased slightly, and the increase in propane arrivals was less than expected due to typhoon weather. In terms of demand, the chemical demand recovered significantly. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. Next week, Wanda Tianhong's PDH plans to conduct maintenance and stop production, but the previously opened manufacturers will gradually increase their loads. Therefore, it is expected that China's PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. In summary, this week's PG changes were mainly dominated by the expected decline in market supply caused by geopolitics. Fundamentally, the civil demand remained seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end's operation continued to recover. It is expected to have a certain boost in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent geopolitical developments, PDH unit operations, and import arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price & Spread - The document presents various price and spread data of LPG and related propane contracts, including the main LPG contract, APS propane main contract, AFE propane main contract, their forward curves, and the spreads between different contract months of LPG and propane. It also shows the domestic spot prices and basis of different regions, such as East China, South China, and Shandong, for imported gas, civil gas, and etherified C4, as well as historical data on regional price premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][9][13]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The document shows the historical data of US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, from 2019 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents the historical data of LPG exports from the Middle East and major countries such as Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar from 2019 to 2025 [35][39]. - **Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea**: The historical data of LPG imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 are provided [42]. - **Domestic Supply in China**: The domestic liquefied gas production was 528,000 tons (-0.30%), and civil gas was 224,900 tons (-1.75%). The domestic propane supply was 374,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.82%. Domestically, the total commercial volume of refineries was 40,900 tons, an increase of 1.74% from last week. The international ship arrivals were 333,300 tons, mainly in East China. Due to typhoon weather, the actual arrivals this week were far lower than expected [44][48]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand showed significant recovery. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. The document also presents historical data on the operating rates and profits of alkylation, MTBE, and PDH [52][53].

Core Insights - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Rogers, noted that the market appears to be optimistic, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1] - However, he emphasized that investors should remain aware of potential volatility risks, suggesting a cautious approach despite the optimistic outlook [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Sentiment** - The current market sentiment is characterized by optimism among investors, as highlighted by the Deputy Governor [1] - **Investor Caution** - Despite the positive market outlook, there is a need for investors to keep in mind the potential for volatility, indicating that risks still exist [1]