- The report introduces a framework to study the impact of macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and inflation on asset prices, using expected indicators, actual CPI inflation rates, and GDP growth rates to construct inflation shocks and growth shocks, and estimate the sensitivity (beta coefficients) of different risk factors/assets to these macroeconomic shocks[2][3][16] - The model employs a bivariate regression model to simultaneously estimate the sensitivity of an asset or factor to inflation and economic growth shocks, considering the potential correlation between inflation and economic growth[3][16] - The regression model used is: $$ r_{t+1}=c+\beta_{\pi}\pi_{t+1}^{s}+\beta_{g}g_{t+1}^{s}+\varepsilon_{t+1} $$ where $\pi_{t+1}^{s}$ and $g_{t+1}^{s}$ represent unexpected inflation and unexpected economic growth, respectively: $$ \begin{array}{l} \pi_{t+1}^{s}=\pi_{t+1}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1} \\ g_{t+1}^{s}=g_{t+1}-E_{t}g_{t+1} \end{array} $$ [16][17] - The data used includes actual GDP data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and CPI inflation data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with actual GDP growth and inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), covering the period from June 1970 to September 2023[18][21] - The report finds that most assets have positive growth beta coefficients, with exceptions like duration assets and gold, which help diversify growth risk in a portfolio. Traditional assets like stocks and fixed income generally have negative inflation beta coefficients, indicating poor performance in high inflation environments, while commodities and real bonds (inflation-linked bonds) can hedge against inflation risk[4][27][28] - The report also discusses how investors can use this framework to construct portfolios resilient to various macroeconomic environments by incorporating macroeconomic beta coefficients into portfolio construction[4][15][52] Model Backtesting Results - **Short Rate**: Growth Beta: 0.38, Inflation Beta: 0.52, Adj. R²: 0.39[25] - **10-year Nominal Yield**: Growth Beta: 0.18, Inflation Beta: 0.32, Adj. R²: 0.31[25] - **Nominal 30y-10y Slope**: Growth Beta: -0.05, Inflation Beta: -0.05, Adj. R²: 0.19[25] - **10-year Real Yield**: Growth Beta: 0.05, Inflation Beta: 0.04, Adj. R²: 0.03[25] - **Equities**: Growth Beta: 3.75, Inflation Beta: -1.99, Adj. R²: 0.24[25] - **REITs**: Growth Beta: 3.36, Inflation Beta: -0.89, Adj. R²: 0.13[25] - **Credit Spread**: Growth Beta: -0.15, Inflation Beta: 0.03, Adj. R²: 0.19[25] - **Commodities**: Growth Beta: 2.00, Inflation Beta: 7.62, Adj. R²: 0.37[25] - **Gold**: Growth Beta: -1.78, Inflation Beta: 5.84, Adj. R²: 0.23[25] Factor Construction and Evaluation - **Growth Beta**: Constructed by regressing asset returns on unexpected economic growth, calculated as the difference between actual GDP growth and expected GDP growth[16][17] - **Inflation Beta**: Constructed by regressing asset returns on unexpected inflation, calculated as the difference between actual CPI inflation and expected CPI inflation[16][17] - **Evaluation**: The model shows that unexpected macroeconomic shocks significantly impact asset returns, with different assets exhibiting varying sensitivities to growth and inflation shocks. This highlights the importance of considering these sensitivities in portfolio construction to enhance resilience against macroeconomic fluctuations[4][27][28]

我们先来看一组数据。耶鲁大学基金会目前有将近 40% 的资产投在私募股权上，而现金、债券和对冲基金加起来不到 30% 【 2 】。这和斯文森当年反复 强调的 " 保险资产 " 完全不一样。 过去三年，私募股权的回报连续输给标普 500 指数 。更要命的是，分红现金大幅下降： 2024 财年，耶鲁从私募基金 里拿到的现金只有 16 亿美元，比两年前的 32 亿整整少了一半【 2 】。换句话说，账面上看着挺热闹，真要掏钱的时候，口袋空空。 再看收益。十几年前，中等水平的美国私募基金还能比标普高出 5—6 个百分点，如今新基金也就高出 1—2 个点【 2 】。这里还没算上天价的管理费和业 绩提成。耶鲁每年光是给基金经理的 " 过路费 " 就要花 7 亿美元。无论基金赚钱还是亏钱，基金经理都是 " 旱涝保收 " ；至于投资人嘛，多半成了 " 冤大 头 " 。 用通俗的大白话来讲，过去耶鲁像是找到了个小馆子，花小钱吃大餐。现在这馆子火了，食客排队，价格翻番，菜量却缩水。吃得饱不饱先不说，性价比早 就没了。 更大的麻烦来自利率环境。斯文森时代， 30 年的利率下降送了一路顺风车。低利率让融资便宜，资产估值也高企。可如今利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong recovery in its financial performance for the mid-2025 period, driven by its investment management business, despite facing challenges from global market conditions and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the company was HKD 1.803 billion, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year [1]. - Total income increased to HKD 2.8 billion, reflecting a significant rise of 43.47% year-on-year [1]. - Shareholders' profit attributable to the company was HKD 0.887 billion, showing an impressive increase of over 1076% compared to HKD 0.0754 billion in the first half of 2024 [2]. - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.453, with a proposed interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share [1]. Investment Management Business - The investment management segment recorded a pre-tax profit of HKD 0.786 billion, a turnaround from a loss of HKD 0.1475 billion in the same period of 2024 [2]. - The strong performance in this segment was attributed to an increase in project exits and improved market sentiment towards Chinese-related assets [2]. - Almost all asset classes, including private equity, corporate holdings, hedge funds, and special opportunity investments, showed improved performance [2]. Market Conditions and Strategic Focus - The company acknowledged the impact of weak domestic demand and ongoing structural reforms in the Greater China region on economic growth [1]. - Despite these challenges, the company maintained a robust balance sheet and ample liquidity, prioritizing investment opportunities during market volatility [1]. - The completion of the strategic transformation has led to a diversified and complementary platform, enhancing recurring revenue growth and long-term shareholder value [1].

Group 1 - The market is increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to restart its accommodative monetary policy, with a nearly 95% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17, up from less than 60% a month ago [1] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, leading to discussions about further rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut in a single move [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet has publicly stated that the Federal Reserve should consider more aggressive easing policies to address economic challenges [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will officially restart the rate cut process next month, with expectations of 25 basis point cuts at each policy meeting until January 2026, totaling a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points [1] - The shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment by the Federal Reserve is expected to support the stock market, high-quality bonds, and safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3 - UBS recommends investors to adopt a highly diversified investment portfolio to mitigate market volatility and create conditions for long-term returns [2] - For investors with appropriate risk tolerance and the ability to manage unique risks associated with alternative investments, hedge funds and private markets are also suggested as potential investment channels [2]

Group 1 - The hedge fund industry had a strong start in the first half of 2025, with portfolio managers successfully navigating market volatility to achieve stable returns [2] - The average return for hedge funds in the first half of 2025 was 5.1%, which is still lower than the nearly 9% return of a 60/40 investment portfolio [3] - Long-term annualized returns for hedge funds since 2020 reached 9.4%, outperforming the 6.5% return of a 60/40 portfolio [4] Group 2 - Quantitative strategies outperformed in the first half of the year, with significant inflows of capital, while stock long/short strategies benefited from market rebounds in recent months [5][6] - CTA and systematic macro strategies performed poorly, with the average return being negative, highlighting the challenges faced by trend-following strategies in a volatile market [7][8] Group 3 - There was a notable increase in interest from investors to increase their exposure to hedge funds, with a net inflow equivalent to 1.3% of assets under management in the first half of 2025 [9][24] - The demand for active long-term stock investment strategies has risen, while interest in passive long-term strategies has decreased significantly [18][19] Group 4 - The biotechnology sector faced significant challenges, with a drastic decline in investor demand and performance, marking it as the worst-performing sector in the first half of the year [14][15] - The healthcare and biotechnology industries are experiencing a period of turmoil, influenced by regulatory changes and market dynamics, leading to a substantial drop in investor interest [15][16] Group 5 - The TMT sub-industry performed well within stock long/short strategies, achieving an average return of 7.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by the ongoing AI boom [22][23] - Investors are increasingly cautious about geopolitical tensions and their impact on market stability, leading to a preference for traditional macro strategies that can hedge against market risks [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a professional asset management team to diversify its investment portfolio and enhance long-term returns while managing risks [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company adopts an asset allocation model inspired by Yale University's endowment fund, focusing on a global perspective for diversified asset management [1] - The core of the asset allocation strategy is to combine low-correlated assets to reduce risk and improve risk-adjusted returns, thereby optimizing the risk-return profile of the investment portfolio [1] Group 2: Asset Composition - As of the end of 2024, the diversified asset portfolio consists of: - Cash assets: 2.2% - Fixed income assets: 65.2% - Public market equities: 19.3% - Private equity: 11.7% - Hedge funds: 1.6% [1] - The fixed income assets primarily include money market funds, fixed income securities, government bonds, credit bonds, and private credit [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Investors are encouraged to monitor the fair value changes and investment income in the 2024 annual report for insights into the company's asset performance over the past year [1]

Industry Overview - The asset management industry is crucial in the global financial system, managing funds for individual and institutional investors through diverse investment strategies aimed at maximizing returns while controlling risks [1] - The industry serves a wide range of clients, including individuals, corporations, pension funds, insurance companies, and governments, offering various investment products such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds, private equity, and real estate [1] - There is a distinction between active management, which relies on continuous market analysis, and passive management, which primarily tracks market indices [1] - Asset management companies typically charge management fees based on a percentage of assets under management (AUM) or performance-based fees, and the industry is subject to strict regulation by bodies like the SEC and FCA to protect investor rights and ensure market fairness [1] Key Players - The asset management sector comprises numerous companies of varying sizes, from large multinational firms serving global clients to small boutique firms focusing on local markets [2] - Large banks and financial institutions dominate the market with their extensive client bases and strong capital, while independent asset management firms attract investors through unique investment strategies and high-quality services [2] - Emerging fintech companies are introducing advanced technologies into the asset management space, enhancing competition and bringing new vitality to the industry [2] Investment Strategies and Products - Investment strategies and products are diverse, including traditional investments like stocks for capital appreciation, bonds for fixed income and principal safety, and mutual funds for risk diversification [2] - Alternative investment products such as private equity, real estate, and hedge funds employ various complex strategies to seek profit opportunities in different market environments [2] - Different investment strategies include value investing, which focuses on undervalued assets, growth investing, which emphasizes future growth potential, and diversification to reduce risk through asset allocation [2] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The asset management industry is expanding due to global economic growth and increasing household wealth, with technological innovations like AI and big data enhancing efficiency in investment decisions and risk management [3] - However, the industry faces challenges such as increasing fee pressure due to heightened competition and investor cost sensitivity, competition from low-cost passive investment products, evolving regulatory policies, and changing investor preferences towards sustainable and socially responsible investments [3] - Future trends indicate that technology will continue to drive industry transformation, with intelligent investment decisions and personalized services becoming mainstream, and a growing focus on sustainable investments [3] Future Outlook - The asset management industry is expected to continue innovating and adjusting to meet the diverse needs of investors in a complex and changing environment [3] - There is a trend of consolidation within the industry, with large asset management firms pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance scale and competitiveness, while smaller boutique firms leverage specialized services to establish a foothold in niche markets [3]

Group 1 - The announcement of large-scale tariffs by Trump has led to a significant slowdown in the IPO market, with reports indicating it is "almost at a standstill" [1][6] - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to alternative investments for yield, with BlackRock setting a fundraising target of $400 billion for its private equity business by 2030, aiming to increase its revenue share from 15% to over 30% [2] - Coller Capital's report indicates that most investors plan to increase allocations to private credit and secondary market assets in the coming year, driven by structural growth factors [2][3] Group 2 - Private credit is the most favored asset class among investors in the alternative asset space, with 45% planning to increase allocations, up from 37% six months ago [3] - Geopolitical risks are now a core consideration for portfolio construction, with 44% of investors increasing their focus on these risks, particularly regional conflicts and trade wars [3] - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in investment portfolio management is becoming a significant trend, with 90% of U.S. investors planning to leverage AI for value addition [4] Group 3 - Traditional exit channels are facing liquidity challenges, prompting over half of global investors to consider trading private equity assets in the secondary market within the next two years [5] - The total transaction volume in the global secondary market is projected to reach $160 billion in 2024, while IPO exits are expected to generate only $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, significantly lower than the $600 billion in 2021 [5] - The current environment has led private equity executives to prioritize alternative exit strategies, such as divestitures and continuation funds, with 80% of top fund managers entering the continuation fund market [6]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has sold its hedge fund division O'Connor to Jefferies Financial Group [1] Group 1 - The sale is part of UBS's strategy to streamline its operations and focus on its core businesses [1] - Jefferies Financial Group aims to enhance its investment management capabilities through this acquisition [1]

瑞银(UBS.N)将旗下对冲基金部门O'Connor卖给建达资本市场公司。 ...