以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ，作者思哲 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略投顾主理人，全球资产配置，为你做好家庭投资框架，穿越牛熊 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思哲与创富 来源：雪球 最近三位诺贝尔经济奖得主公布了 ， 分别是 乔尔莫克尔 、 菲利普 · 阿吉翁 、 彼得 · 豪伊特 ， 这三人得奖理由也挺有意思。 乔尔莫克尔主要阐述了 " 经济增长需要的三大前提条件 " ， 有点类似去年 《 国家为什么会失败 》 作者的阿西莫格鲁。 后者则主要把熊彼得的 创造性破坏理论 ， 倒腾出了一套可操作经济模型 ，他们三人一起拿走了相当于 116万美元左右 的奖金。 而今年的诺贝尔是6亿美金多点 ， 所以1.2%折算下来就是 700万左右奖金 ， 分到6个奖上 ， 每个奖发了116万美金。 这次经济学奖 乔尔莫克尔拿一半 ， 剩下的由 菲利普 · 阿吉翁 、 彼得 · 豪伊特 则来分。 钱不多 ， 但考虑到诺奖每年都得发六个 ， 合计700万美金 （ 目前 ） ， 发了125年 ， 还剩余越多 ， 还是有点东西的~ 这 ...

Core Insights - The Nobel Foundation's investment strategy evolved from conservative to aggressive, significantly improving its financial situation after the Swedish government lifted investment restrictions in the early 1950s [1][2] - By diversifying its asset allocation and adjusting according to market conditions, the Nobel Foundation's assets grew substantially, reaching a total market value of 39.38 billion Swedish Krona by the end of 1999 [1] - As of 2023, the Nobel Foundation's assets have increased to 61 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 4.6 billion RMB), representing nearly a 200-fold increase from its initial amount [2] Investment Strategy Evolution - Initially, the Nobel Foundation focused on "safe securities" like government bonds, which led to a significant decline in the purchasing power of its awards by over 70% from 1901 to 1945 [1] - The shift in investment policy in the 1950s allowed for investments in stocks and real estate, marking a turning point for the foundation's financial health [1] - The foundation's asset allocation as of 2019 included over 50% in stocks, 10% in real estate and infrastructure, 10% in fixed income products, and 25% in hedge funds [2] Performance Highlights - The Nobel Foundation experienced a significant increase in returns during the long bull market of the 1980s, with stock investments reaching a total market value of 12.87 billion Swedish Krona by the end of 1987 [1] - In 2020, the foundation achieved an annual investment return rate close to 9%, benefiting from strong overall market performance and effective asset management [2] - Despite facing challenges, such as a loss of over 19 million Swedish Krona in 2011 due to poor stock market performance, the foundation adapted by increasing its hedge fund investments to mitigate market risks [1]

Core Insights - Asian ultra-high-net-worth investors possess substantial financial strength, with investment thresholds ranging from $20 million to $1 billion, and they prefer global asset allocation and long-term certainty in investments [2] Investment Philosophy - Ultra-high-net-worth investors focus on long-term asset appreciation over 20 to 30 years, rather than short-term market fluctuations [4][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term certainty opportunities, such as gold and AI, rather than short-term market volatility [6] Asset Allocation - Investors diversify to mitigate risks, balancing traditional assets like gold and hedge funds with geographical diversification across regions like Japan, Singapore, Australia, and Europe [6] - Preferred alternative investments include hedge funds, private equity, real estate funds, and infrastructure funds [2] Hedge Fund Preferences - Investors favor hedge funds with strong management capabilities and risk control, such as the "Millennium" hedge fund, which employs a multi-strategy approach [7][8] - The appeal of these funds lies in their professional management and relatively low correlation with market fluctuations, offering expected annual returns of 10% to 15% [8] Stock Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations focus on AI-related sectors, particularly companies in the supply chain like Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, and Samsung, which are seen as having strong growth potential [10] - Despite concerns about high valuations, companies like Nvidia are viewed as fundamentally sound due to their strong earnings growth and demand for their products [11] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - Ultra-high-net-worth investors show a preference for Singapore REITs, which are well-established and cover various sectors, offering annual yields of 4% to 8% [14] Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset - Gold is recommended as a strong investment due to central banks increasing their holdings, its role in inflation hedging, and its appeal during geopolitical uncertainties [15] Currency Outlook - The outlook for the US dollar is negative, with expectations of further declines due to a potential interest rate cut cycle, while other currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc are monitored for investment leverage considerations [16]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and preferences of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) investors in Asia, focusing on their cross-border asset allocation and long-term investment outlook [2][3]. Investment Preferences - UHNW investors typically have significant financial resources, with investment thresholds ranging from $20 million to $1 billion, and they prefer global asset allocation with a focus on long-term certainty [2]. - In addition to traditional investments like stocks, bonds, and gold, UHNW investors are increasingly considering alternative investments such as hedge funds, private equity, real estate funds, and infrastructure funds [2]. Investment Philosophy - UHNW investors prioritize long-term asset appreciation over short-term market fluctuations, often looking at investment horizons of 20 to 30 years [3][4]. - The investment strategy emphasizes capturing long-term trends, such as those in gold and AI sectors, while diversifying to mitigate risks [5]. Hedge Fund Preferences - UHNW investors favor hedge funds with strong management capabilities and robust risk control, often opting for multi-strategy hedge funds that provide stable returns with lower market correlation [6][7]. - The expected annual return for these hedge funds is between 10% and 15%, with a focus on minimizing drawdowns [7]. Stock Investment Recommendations - For direct stock investments, UHNW investors are advised to focus on companies within the AI supply chain, such as Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, and Samsung, as these companies are positioned well in the early stages of AI development [8]. - Concerns about high valuations are addressed, with Nvidia's current earnings growth and demand for its products justifying its valuation compared to historical tech bubbles [9]. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - UHNW investors show a strong preference for Singapore REITs due to their maturity and stability, with annual yields ranging from 4% to 8% [12]. - The Singapore government’s flexible regulatory approach helps attract foreign investment, making its REITs an appealing option for asset allocation [12]. Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is viewed positively as a long-term investment, with recommendations to increase allocations since April 2024, supported by central bank purchases and its role as an inflation hedge [13]. - The current geopolitical uncertainties further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [13]. Currency Outlook - The outlook for the US dollar is negative, with expectations of further declines due to a potential interest rate cut cycle, while other currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc are being monitored for investment opportunities [14].

Core Insights - The report by Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) indicates that global alternative investment assets have tripled over the past decade, exceeding $20 trillion [1] - Alternative investments have transitioned from niche to mainstream, gaining favor among institutional investors, high-net-worth individuals, and family offices [1] - Private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, hedge funds, and digital assets are becoming strategic focuses in emerging markets [1] Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are experiencing GDP growth rates that are generally 2 to 3 percentage points higher than developed economies, driven by a young population and innovative industries [1] - DIFC has attracted over 440 wealth and asset management firms, including 85 hedge funds, establishing itself as the largest alternative investment hub in the region [1] Strategic Initiatives - DIFC supports investor access to emerging markets through platforms such as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), family offices, and fund centers, facilitating fund expansion and innovation [1] - The center emphasizes Dubai's advantages in regulatory transparency, global capital access, and innovation-driven growth, positioning it as a strategic gateway connecting global investment with emerging market growth [1]

Core Insights - UBS Wealth Management emphasizes the importance of being a "super connector" between Chinese and global entrepreneurs, leveraging its extensive experience and network to facilitate wealth management and investment opportunities [2][7]. Group 1: Wealth Management Strategy - UBS has over 160 years of history, focusing on wealth management, which constitutes over 50% of its total revenue [6]. - The firm adopts a "banking integration" strategy, where it first establishes long-term relationships with entrepreneurs, then extends services to investment banking and asset management as their needs evolve [6][7]. - UBS has been active in the Chinese market for over 35 years, with a strong presence in Hong Kong and the broader Asia-Pacific region [6]. Group 2: Family Wealth Management - Many overseas families view family offices as a "school" for nurturing the next generation, with younger family members increasingly interested in entrepreneurship rather than traditional family businesses [9]. - Family offices are also seen as platforms for social impact, with younger generations preferring to invest in projects that create social value rather than merely donating [9]. - Current high-net-worth clients in China are maturing and becoming more rational, focusing on "stability" and diversifying investments into alternatives like private equity and hedge funds [9]. Group 3: Opportunities in the Greater Bay Area - UBS manages one-third of its assets in the Greater Bay Area, highlighting its significance to the firm [11]. - The number of trips between Hong Kong and cities in the Greater Bay Area has increased by 25% compared to last year, with related meetings up by over 20% [12]. - UBS plans to relocate its Hong Kong office to a more strategic location by the end of 2026, enhancing its ability to serve clients in the Greater Bay Area [12].

Core Insights - The report reveals the investment sentiment and strategies of family offices in the context of trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and technological changes [1][2]. Group 1: Key Findings - Asset allocation among family offices remains stable, with half of the respondents maintaining fixed income holdings and two-thirds keeping real estate allocations unchanged. Private equity shows the most optimistic trend, with a net increase of 26% in allocations [5][6]. - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, family offices express a positive outlook for portfolio returns over the next twelve months, with 30% expecting returns between 10%-15% and 8% anticipating returns exceeding 15% [8][9]. - Nearly two-thirds of family offices took action to enhance portfolio resilience following the U.S. tariff announcement, with 39% opting for active management [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sentiment - 70% of respondents are engaged in direct investments, with 40% increasing their activities in the past year, reflecting confidence in selecting profitable transactions [13][14]. - Trade tensions have become the primary concern for family offices this year, with 60% citing it as their top worry, while interest rates have dropped to fourth place [15][16]. - Family offices report effective management of investment risks, with 83% believing their investment risks are well managed, although confidence in managing cybersecurity and geopolitical risks is lacking [18][19]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Market Outlook - Family offices' asset allocation for 2025 remains consistent with 2024, with public equities averaging 27%, fixed income at 15%, and alternative assets at 40% [30][31]. - The sentiment towards asset classes is predominantly neutral, with developed market equities showing the highest net positive sentiment at +17% [44][45]. - Regional sentiment varies, with the Americas showing net bullish sentiment for private equity direct investments at +21%, while the Asia-Pacific region shows a much lower sentiment at +1% [48][49].

- The report introduces a framework to study the impact of macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and inflation on asset prices, using expected indicators, actual CPI inflation rates, and GDP growth rates to construct inflation shocks and growth shocks, and estimate the sensitivity (beta coefficients) of different risk factors/assets to these macroeconomic shocks[2][3][16] - The model employs a bivariate regression model to simultaneously estimate the sensitivity of an asset or factor to inflation and economic growth shocks, considering the potential correlation between inflation and economic growth[3][16] - The regression model used is: $$ r_{t+1}=c+\beta_{\pi}\pi_{t+1}^{s}+\beta_{g}g_{t+1}^{s}+\varepsilon_{t+1} $$ where $\pi_{t+1}^{s}$ and $g_{t+1}^{s}$ represent unexpected inflation and unexpected economic growth, respectively: $$ \begin{array}{l} \pi_{t+1}^{s}=\pi_{t+1}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1} \\ g_{t+1}^{s}=g_{t+1}-E_{t}g_{t+1} \end{array} $$ [16][17] - The data used includes actual GDP data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and CPI inflation data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with actual GDP growth and inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), covering the period from June 1970 to September 2023[18][21] - The report finds that most assets have positive growth beta coefficients, with exceptions like duration assets and gold, which help diversify growth risk in a portfolio. Traditional assets like stocks and fixed income generally have negative inflation beta coefficients, indicating poor performance in high inflation environments, while commodities and real bonds (inflation-linked bonds) can hedge against inflation risk[4][27][28] - The report also discusses how investors can use this framework to construct portfolios resilient to various macroeconomic environments by incorporating macroeconomic beta coefficients into portfolio construction[4][15][52] Model Backtesting Results - **Short Rate**: Growth Beta: 0.38, Inflation Beta: 0.52, Adj. R²: 0.39[25] - **10-year Nominal Yield**: Growth Beta: 0.18, Inflation Beta: 0.32, Adj. R²: 0.31[25] - **Nominal 30y-10y Slope**: Growth Beta: -0.05, Inflation Beta: -0.05, Adj. R²: 0.19[25] - **10-year Real Yield**: Growth Beta: 0.05, Inflation Beta: 0.04, Adj. R²: 0.03[25] - **Equities**: Growth Beta: 3.75, Inflation Beta: -1.99, Adj. R²: 0.24[25] - **REITs**: Growth Beta: 3.36, Inflation Beta: -0.89, Adj. R²: 0.13[25] - **Credit Spread**: Growth Beta: -0.15, Inflation Beta: 0.03, Adj. R²: 0.19[25] - **Commodities**: Growth Beta: 2.00, Inflation Beta: 7.62, Adj. R²: 0.37[25] - **Gold**: Growth Beta: -1.78, Inflation Beta: 5.84, Adj. R²: 0.23[25] Factor Construction and Evaluation - **Growth Beta**: Constructed by regressing asset returns on unexpected economic growth, calculated as the difference between actual GDP growth and expected GDP growth[16][17] - **Inflation Beta**: Constructed by regressing asset returns on unexpected inflation, calculated as the difference between actual CPI inflation and expected CPI inflation[16][17] - **Evaluation**: The model shows that unexpected macroeconomic shocks significantly impact asset returns, with different assets exhibiting varying sensitivities to growth and inflation shocks. This highlights the importance of considering these sensitivities in portfolio construction to enhance resilience against macroeconomic fluctuations[4][27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The "Yale Model" of investing, which focused on alternative assets like private equity, has become increasingly difficult to replicate due to changing market conditions and declining returns from private equity investments [2][3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Yale's Investment Strategy - Yale University's endowment currently allocates nearly 40% of its assets to private equity, while cash, bonds, and hedge funds combined account for less than 30% [3][2]. - Over the past three years, private equity returns have consistently underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index, with dividends from private equity dropping significantly from $3.2 billion two years ago to $1.6 billion in the 2024 fiscal year [3][2]. - The average private equity fund used to outperform the S&P 500 by 5-6 percentage points, but now new funds only exceed it by 1-2 percentage points [3][2]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Private Equity - The current interest rate environment has shifted, making financing more difficult and asset valuations less favorable, leading to challenges in exiting investments [4][5]. - Liquidity risks have increased, as the long lock-up periods of private equity investments (5-10 years) are now coupled with slow distributions and difficult exits, straining cash flows for endowments [5][2]. - The increase in investment income tax has forced some universities to sell private equity stakes prematurely, often at a loss [5][2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should recognize the liquidity traps associated with private equity, as attractive-looking returns may not translate into accessible cash when needed [6]. - Adjusting expectations regarding returns is crucial, as the previous era of consistently outperforming the S&P 500 is no longer realistic [6]. - Understanding the asymmetry of risk and return is essential, as fund managers benefit from fixed fees regardless of fund performance, leaving investors to bear the risks [6]. Group 4: Lessons from the Yale Model - The Yale Model serves as a reminder that there is no universal "holy grail" in investing; strategies must adapt to changing conditions [7]. - The favorable conditions that allowed Yale to excel in private equity, such as low interest rates and a lack of competition, have dissipated, making it imperative for investors to evolve their strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong recovery in its financial performance for the mid-2025 period, driven by its investment management business, despite facing challenges from global market conditions and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the company was HKD 1.803 billion, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year [1]. - Total income increased to HKD 2.8 billion, reflecting a significant rise of 43.47% year-on-year [1]. - Shareholders' profit attributable to the company was HKD 0.887 billion, showing an impressive increase of over 1076% compared to HKD 0.0754 billion in the first half of 2024 [2]. - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.453, with a proposed interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share [1]. Investment Management Business - The investment management segment recorded a pre-tax profit of HKD 0.786 billion, a turnaround from a loss of HKD 0.1475 billion in the same period of 2024 [2]. - The strong performance in this segment was attributed to an increase in project exits and improved market sentiment towards Chinese-related assets [2]. - Almost all asset classes, including private equity, corporate holdings, hedge funds, and special opportunity investments, showed improved performance [2]. Market Conditions and Strategic Focus - The company acknowledged the impact of weak domestic demand and ongoing structural reforms in the Greater China region on economic growth [1]. - Despite these challenges, the company maintained a robust balance sheet and ample liquidity, prioritizing investment opportunities during market volatility [1]. - The completion of the strategic transformation has led to a diversified and complementary platform, enhancing recurring revenue growth and long-term shareholder value [1].