少银化技术
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银价飙涨,“用银”大户坐不住了
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 14:13
Core Viewpoint - The silver price has surged significantly, with a nearly 35% increase in one month and close to a doubling over six months, driven by speculative funds and structural supply tightness, impacting both mining companies and manufacturing sectors reliant on silver as a raw material [1][2][12]. Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - As of December 31, the main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 17,074 yuan per kilogram, down 4.27% for the day, but the overall upward trend remains intact [1]. - The price of silver has increased by 127% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector, is a significant driver, with silver usage in PV applications reaching 6,147 tons in 2024, accounting for 29% of industrial silver demand [2][12]. Group 2: Impact on the Photovoltaic Industry - The share of silver in the cost of photovoltaic components has risen sharply from less than 5% before 2024 to around 20% currently due to soaring silver prices [1][11]. - The production of photovoltaic cells and modules has seen growth, with cell production reaching approximately 560 GW and module production at about 514 GW in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.8% and 13.5%, respectively [2][12]. Group 3: Cost Transmission Strategies - Many midstream companies are attempting to pass on the increased silver costs to downstream customers through price hikes, with some companies already implementing slight increases in component prices [5][16]. - For example, LONGi Green Energy has raised its component prices by 0.03 to 0.06 yuan per watt [16]. - However, the ability to pass on costs is challenged by a supply-demand imbalance in the downstream market, limiting the extent of price increases [17]. Group 4: Long-term Solutions and Technological Innovations - The industry consensus is shifting towards reducing silver usage through technological innovations, with "silver reduction" and "silver-free" technologies becoming key strategies for overcoming cost pressures [11][18]. - Companies like Dike Co. are developing low-silver and silver-coated copper pastes, which are expected to reduce costs while maintaining performance [18][19]. - The transition to alternative materials, such as copper, faces challenges due to copper's inferior conductivity and susceptibility to oxidation compared to silver [20].