Core Viewpoint - The U.S. market is experiencing an unusual calm ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with low levels of the VIX and MOVE indices indicating reduced volatility expectations [1] Group 1 - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, has dropped to low levels, suggesting a lack of fear among investors [1] - The MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also decreased, indicating a similar trend in the fixed income market [1] - Analysts warn that this calmness is fragile due to internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a split vote [1] Group 2 - Potential hawkish rate cuts or deteriorating employment conditions could quickly trigger a new wave of market volatility [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%, which aligns with market expectations[4] - The decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut[9] - Most officials anticipate two more rate cuts within the year, according to the updated dot plot[9] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - Deteriorating employment data is the primary reason for the rate cut, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000[4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a severe slowdown in the labor market[4] - The latest CPI and PPI data show inflation levels are manageable, with August CPI rising by 2.9% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[14] Group 3: Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, due to increased liquidity from the Fed's actions[6] - A decline in U.S. Treasury yields may lead to a limited increase in foreign investment in Chinese bonds, as the yield gap remains inverted[21] - Gold prices are likely to rise further, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,690 per ounce as of September 16, 2025, benefiting from the Fed's dovish stance[21] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold and Hong Kong stocks following the Fed's rate cut[7] - The potential for further easing in China's monetary policy is anticipated, following the Fed's actions[23] Group 5: Risks - Risks include potential escalation of U.S.-China tariffs, domestic monetary policy not meeting expectations, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts[24]