线预计在1670-1720区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 尿素产业日报 2025-12-18 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 幅累库，但外围新疆、内蒙受西北、东北储备需求带动仍表现出明显去库，国内尿素企业库存继续下降， 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 短期尿素工厂收单好转，不排除部分储备再次补仓以及工厂催发流向而继续呈现去库趋势。UR2605合约短 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1629 | 4 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -52 | 6 -2547 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 97760 | -20998 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -8216 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 11245 | -51 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1690 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1690 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1700 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1680 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 71 | -14 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 347.5 | -5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 387.5 | -4 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 12.3 | 1.8 企业 ...

高，持续需求推进，部分储备缺口存在，尿素工厂库存或仍呈现小幅下降趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在16 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 尿素产业日报 2025-12-11 30-1680区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1638 | -7 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -65 | 3 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1275 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term trend of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1630 - 1670 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and export demand will gradually increase with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory may continue to decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 234,315 lots, an increase of 2000 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,299. The exchange warehouse receipts are 7302, a decrease of 268 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan are 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu is 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis is 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton. The FOB Baltic price is 362.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB China main port price is 400 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons, a 21.95% increase; the enterprise inventory is 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons, a 3.13% decrease. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17%; the daily output is 202,900 tons, an increase of 6200 tons. The urea export volume is 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons. The monthly output is 5.87127 million tons, an increase of 132,600 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29%; the melamine operating rate is 62.2%, an increase of 4.72%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 3.6287 million tons, a decrease of 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 2800 tons [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. The urea price fluctuated upward, and the demand for northeast reserves increased significantly. As of November 20, the port inventory increased by 21.95% week - on - week, with slow shipments. The domestic urea output increased due to the resumption of previously - overhauled devices. The production of urea enterprises increased by 3.16% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [2] Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 尿素产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1638 | -16 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 1 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 232315 | -10931 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -23589 | 7570 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the weather clearing up, agricultural demand has increased moderately, but due to excessive rain previously, autumn sowing has been postponed, and agricultural replenishment is scattered. Industrial demand is lukewarm. Some previously shut - down plants in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have resumed production, increasing overall capacity utilization, but small and medium - sized enterprises in Henan and Hebei are still operating at a low level and actively digesting inventory. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may increase slightly. Some previously suppressed demand has been released recently, and some reserve demand has followed up, helping urea factories increase new orders and shipments. This week, urea enterprise inventories have decreased. With many industry meetings recently, market sentiment is cautious. With downstream reserve demand following up, urea enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate little. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1620 - 1660 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1644 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 1948 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 270349 lots, down 2652 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 34609 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, down 2970 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan is 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong is 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Anhui is 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, up 14,800 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.03%, down 2.61 percentage points; the daily urea output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons. Urea exports are 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 27.71%, up 3.53 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 48.3%, down 6.88 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.5543 million tons, down 75,900 tons from last week, a 4.66% decrease. This period sees a shift from an increase to a decrease in enterprise inventory. As of October 23, the port sample inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons, a 52.91% decrease. Port goods are leaving faster. Some domestic urea plants have newly shut down, and production has slightly decreased. This week, no enterprise plans to shut down, and 4 - 5 shut - down plants may resume production. As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea producers is 1.2779 million tons, down 42,600 tons from the previous period, a 3.23% decrease; the capacity utilization rate is 78.03%, down 2.61 percentage points, continuing to decline [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved slightly, but most of them only maintain a weak balance between production and sales. With some devices shut down for maintenance, the rising trend of enterprise inventory has slowed down, and the domestic urea enterprise inventory only increased slightly last week. However, according to the progress of agriculture, the duration of future demand is limited, and the inventory may still show an increasing trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,600 - 1,660 yuan in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is -73 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 273,001 lots, a decrease of 8,953 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -32,661; the exchange warehouse receipt is 2,970 sheets, a decrease of 2,318 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,630 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is -25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 348.5 US dollars/ton and 375 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, a decrease of 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points; the daily output is 182,600 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 27.71%, an increase of 3.53 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 48.3%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52.91%. As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.2779 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.61% [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental valuation of urea is low. Without further adjustments to export policies, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term internal drive of the industry is weak, and both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is weak. The production cost of gas - based enterprises cannot effectively support the price at present. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new export quotas. Macro factors also need to be monitored [2]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. In the absence of export policy adjustments, it will accumulate inventory in Q4. Industry internal drive is weak, and demand from compound fertilizer and industry is sluggish, leading to a weak medium - term trend. Gas - based production costs can't support prices. New export quotas and macro factors should be watched [2]. - For the near - term, although new delivery warehouses are added, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. With the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, a reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread is appropriate. The 01 contract still has a premium due to autumn fertilizer expectations [5]. - For the long - term, domestic daily urea production fluctuated between 19.5 - 20.1 million tons around holidays, then dropped to around 19.5 million tons. Inventory increased after the holiday, and demand, especially agricultural demand, is weak [10][20]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Urea will fluctuate weakly. The price range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750. Short at prices above 1750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [12]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, contracts 11, 12, 01 have a weak unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to when pre - holiday price cuts for order collection increase. Contracts 02, 03, 04, 05 are strong due to peak - season demand expectations. For spread strategies, the upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread. No hedging arbitrage strategy is recommended [13][14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1st, with the opening on October 15th and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and low prices may attract spontaneous reserves [16]. - **Negative Information**: Urea daily production has been above 19 million tons this year, and inventory pressure is high. Market confidence is lacking due to falling prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [17][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 19th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng of the State Council agreed with the US to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held next week, and it is an important time - point for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [19]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume and Capital Analysis - Domestic daily urea production fluctuated around 19.5 - 20.1 million tons around holidays and then dropped to around 19.5 million tons. Inventory increased after the holiday, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand in Shandong and Henan is postponed due to rain, and compound fertilizer factories have large - scale shutdowns. The impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculation has weakened, and downstream procurement willingness is low [20]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that export growth cannot offset the weakening domestic demand, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1% [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high, short urea futures, buy put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy urea futures, sell put options [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal data of urea's production costs (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) and production profits (water - coal - slurry gasification, fixed - bed) [31][34][36]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report shows the seasonal data of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, and capacity utilization of different production methods (coal - based, natural - gas) [40][42]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides the seasonal data of China's urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) [44][46][48]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal data of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit, as well as the data of melamine's production profit, capacity utilization, and market price in different regions [50][52][56]. 4.5 Spot Sales and Production Tracking - The report shows the seasonal data of urea's average sales and production, and sales and production in different regions (Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, East China) [74][76].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1714 | -28 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -22 | 6 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 141557 | -5600 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -18779 | 3449 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3233 | 333 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 56 | 28 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 430 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 425 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 54.3 | 0.2 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1737 | -2 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 38 | -3 -1185 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 222192 | -1691 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22466 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 500 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 178 ...