660区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 尿素产业日报 2025-10-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1644 | 9 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 0 -1948 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 270349 | -2652 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -34609 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 0 | -2970 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) ...

间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1635 | -5 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 0 734 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 273001 | -8953 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -32661 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2970 | -2318 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 30 河南(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 40 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 20 郑州尿素主力合 ...

∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 source： 南华研究,同花顺 source： 南华研究 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——宏观带动需求回暖 2025/10/26 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 尿素基本面估值偏低，在出口政策没有进一步调整背景下，进入四季度，尿素仍是累库趋势。产业内驱 动短期偏弱看待，复合肥及工业需求均较为疲软，对价格驱动同样有限，因此中期趋势偏弱。估值来看，气 头企业生产成本暂时无法对价格形成有效支撑。后续需要关注能否有新的出口配额。宏观方面，下周开始宏 观周，10月19日国务院副总理何立峰与美方同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商，下周召开二十届四中全会， 以及" ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1714 | -28 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -22 | 6 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 141557 | -5600 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -18779 | 3449 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3233 | 333 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 56 | 28 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 430 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 425 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 54.3 | 0.2 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1737 | -2 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 38 | -3 -1185 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 222192 | -1691 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22466 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 500 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 178 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term enterprise malfunctions are expected to have little impact on production. Agricultural demand is currently lukewarm, with agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation to continue next week. Domestic industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises continues to decline. Enterprises are promoting autumn pre - sales, and raw material prices are stabilizing. It is expected that some enterprises with planned maintenance will resume production, but overall, there are still more maintenance activities, and the capacity utilization rate will remain low. Recently, urea has continued to be shipped to ports, which has accelerated the sales of some urea enterprises. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline, but overall inventory reduction is limited. The UR2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1724 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 233,314 lots, down 21,922 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5183, down 9688. The exchange warehouse receipts are 500 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei are 1790 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Jiangsu 1780 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Shandong 1800 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and in Anhui 1800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic are 375 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port are 372.5 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 29.5 million tons (up 5 million tons), and enterprise inventory is 109.59 million tons (down 4.01 million tons). The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.28% (up 0.48%), and the daily output is 204,400 tons (up 2500 tons). Urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 6,293,230 tons (up 448,150 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.82% (down 1.99%), and the melamine operating rate is 64.32% (up 0.55%). The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 186 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 484 yuan/ton (down 194 yuan). The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 480.9 million tons (down 104.17 million tons), and the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons (up 300 tons) [2] Industry News - As of June 25, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 109.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.01 million tons or 3.53%. As of June 26, China's urea port sample inventory was 38.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 million tons or 29.15%. As of June 26, China's urea production enterprise output was 1.3902 billion tons, a decrease of 40.5 million tons or 2.83% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 85.78%, a decrease of 2.50% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2] Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

09合约短线建议在1760-1820区间交易。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 尿素产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1774 | 51 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 48 | 8 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 285825 | 6801 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | 11446 | 16632 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 5810 | -112 | | | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1784 | -6 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 79 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 219438 | -4320 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | 8032 | -5278 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6941 | -145 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1860 | 10 | | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1816 | -11 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 79 | 5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 219428 | 4610 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | 10333 | 854 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7104 | -444 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1880 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1880 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1900 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 2270 | 390 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1900 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 454 | 401 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 352.5 | 2.5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 360 | 5 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 20.3 | 4 企业库存( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of previously overhauled plants has led to an increase in domestic urea daily production this week. Next week, one company plans to halt production while another will resume, but considering short - term equipment malfunctions, the change in production will be limited [2]. - Due to the start of local wheat harvest, urea agricultural demand is in a short - term lull, domestic industrial demand has weakened, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizers has declined. With summer drawing to a close, the future demand outlook is bleak, and companies mainly produce based on sales. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to decline steadily [2]. - Market sentiment has cooled recently, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and local factory shipments have decreased, leading to an increase in domestic urea enterprise inventories this week. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1900 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1849 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 83 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 223,161 lots, down 1,437 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 1,010 lots, up 2,329 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 7,573 sheets, up 25 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Shandong, it remains unchanged at 1910 yuan/ton and 1880 yuan/ton respectively; in Anhui, it is 1900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 31 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 355 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.3 million tons, up 3 million tons; enterprise inventory is 91.74 million tons, up 10.02 million tons; urea daily production is 199,200 tons, down 2,200 tons [2]. - Urea export volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the monthly output of urea is 6,087,080 tons, up 610,930 tons [2]. - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.26%, up 2.36 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 74.82%, down 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 191 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 370 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 6.8383 million tons, up 1.5092 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 37,160 tons, down 210 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 21, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 91.74 million tons, an increase of 10.02 million tons from last week, a 12.26% increase [2]. - As of May 22, China's urea port sample inventory was 20.3 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons, a 24.54% increase [2]. - As of May 22, China's urea production enterprise output was 1.4255 million tons, an increase of 30,800 tons from the previous period, a 2.21% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points, with the trend turning from decline to increase [2]. 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and operating rate on Thursday [2].