Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the guidance price was suppressing, and the spot market was stable; this week's view is that due to policy suppression, urea will mainly fluctuate. Despite a decrease in daily output to around 210,000 tons, it remains at a high level. International supply has tightened due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, but the impact on the domestic market is limited as there are no new domestic quotas. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, procurement has basically stopped. After a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, urea enterprise inventories started to decline this week. With the approaching demand, downstream buyers are starting to purchase, but the upside of the spot price is limited under policy suppression, and the futures will mainly fluctuate widely. It is expected that urea will continue to fluctuate. Key factors to watch are the Middle East situation and domestic policies. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: The mainstream ex - factory prices in major regions are firm, and the market sentiment is stable. In Shandong, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate has declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished product inventory. In Henan, the market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory price is firm. In the delivery area and the Northeast, the ex - factory price is expected to remain stable. Some domestic urea plants are under maintenance, and the daily output has decreased. International supply has tightened, but the domestic impact is limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate has increased, but procurement has stopped. Urea enterprise inventories are decreasing. With approaching demand, downstream purchases are increasing, but the upside of the spot price is limited by policies, and the futures will mainly fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. - **Core Data Changes**: In the 11th week of 2026 (20260312 - 0318), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity in China was 97.42%, a 0.01% week - on - week decrease; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 73.18%, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the urea production capacity utilization rate was 98.38%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. In the 12th week of 2026 (20260313 - 0319), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 59.31%, a 5.96 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity in the period from 20260313 - 0319 was 49.97%, a 4.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 20, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,750 tons, a 6.71% week - on - week increase. This week (20260313 - 20260320), the urea arrival volume in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 18, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, a 2.85% week - on - week increase. On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a 15.53% week - on - week decrease. As of March 19, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 167,000 tons, an 11.64% week - on - week decrease. In terms of profit, the production profit of urea was stable, with a fixed - bed production profit of 150 yuan/ton, a water - coal - slurry production profit of 240 yuan/ton, and an entrained - flow bed production profit of 460 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was near par, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Prices**: No detailed content provided - **Basis**: No detailed content provided - **Regional Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Urea and Methanol Futures Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Raw Coal Price**: No detailed content provided - **Production Profit**: No detailed content provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Output**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Pre - orders**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Inventory**: No detailed content provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: No detailed content provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: No detailed content provided - **Melamine**: No detailed content provided - **Urea Export**: No detailed content provided - **Furniture**: No detailed content provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, due to the intensification of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the energy - chemical sector is trending strongly. However, the upward price space of urea is restricted by policies, so it is expected to move in a range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,817 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,826 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume was 343,555 lots, the open interest was 262,781 lots, an increase of 2,904 lots; the turnover was 1.255 billion yuan, an increase of 753.128 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 73 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 97 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 13 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan. The spread between UR05 - UR09 was 25 yuan, down 14 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, and Shandong Ruixing remained unchanged at 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,350 yuan/ton, and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 30 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan to 1,750 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,860 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions increased by 30 yuan to 1,890 yuan/ton and 1,750 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 90.86%, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 213,940 tons, also unchanged [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89% compared with the previous period (February 11). The main reason for the significant increase in inventory was the reduction of logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival, which led to the stagnation of shipments in most urea factories. After the fourth day of the first lunar month, the partial resumption of road logistics slowed down the inventory increase. Provinces with inventory decreases were Inner Mongolia and Yunnan, while those with inventory increases included Anhui, Gansu, and others [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The urea price will oscillate in the short - term, and the reference range for the 05 contract is 1720 - 1810 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 8 yuan to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1750 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 12,274 lots to 227,000 lots, and short positions increased by 4,253 lots to 246,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 204,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous working day and 279,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate is 83.28%, a 5.81% increase from 77.47% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a 0.29% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.7%, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine is 58.5%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease [1] - Indian Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL urea import tender received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, with CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1,107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - International Event: On January 3rd, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The same day, a US official said that Maduro was captured by members of the US military's Delta Force in the early morning of January 3rd [1] Market Logic - This week, the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton. The release of the Indian tender price is beneficial to the international market, but there is no clear news about the new domestic export quota [1] Trading Strategy - Take profits on long positions when the price is high [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that supply and demand were balanced, and urea mainly fluctuated. This week's view is that demand has improved month - on - month, and urea is operating strongly. Although the export port inspection policy has been relaxed, it has limited impact on the domestic spot. The Indian tender price far exceeds market expectations, and the domestic and foreign price difference is huge. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term, but due to weak domestic demand, limited export increment, and export flow restrictions, it will mainly operate with short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: Some urea production plants are under maintenance, with the daily output dropping below 200,000 tons but still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender price has been announced, which boosts market sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer in central and northern China is low, and the overall demand is declining. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the domestic demand is weak, and the export increment is limited. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [5] - **Core Data Changes**: In the 28th week of 2025 (July 10 - 16), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.95%, up 0.36% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 76.37%, down 4.61% month - on - month. In Shandong, the urea capacity utilization rate was 75.70%, up 3.34% month - on - month. In the 29th week of 2025 (July 11 - 17), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.24%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week; the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, up 2.72 percentage points month - on - month. As of July 18, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 800 tons, up 100 tons month - on - month. As of July 16, the average pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, up 0.12 days month - on - month. On July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a decrease of 7.22 tons from last week. The port sample inventory was 54.1 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons month - on - month. In terms of profit, the fixed - bed production profit was 220 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production profit was 360 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 580 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturers' Factory Prices**: Not provided - **Basis**: Not provided - **Regional Spread**: Not provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spreads**: Not provided - **Urea - Methanol Futures Spread**: Not provided - **Raw Coal Price**: Not provided - **Production Profit**: Not provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: Not provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: Not provided - **Urea Output**: Not provided - **Urea Pre - sales**: Not provided - **Urea Inventory**: Not provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: Not provided - **Urea and Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Ratios**: Not provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: Not provided - **Melamine**: Not provided - **Urea Export**: Not provided - **Furniture**: Not provided