Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 8 元至 1776 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1750 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 12274 手至 22.7 万手，空头持仓增加 4253 手至 24.66 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.4 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.14 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 83.28%，较去年同期 77.47%回升 5.81%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 102.22 万吨，较上周增加 0.30 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 0.29%。尿素港口样本库存量 14 万吨，环比-3.2 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that supply and demand were balanced, and urea mainly fluctuated. This week's view is that demand has improved month - on - month, and urea is operating strongly. Although the export port inspection policy has been relaxed, it has limited impact on the domestic spot. The Indian tender price far exceeds market expectations, and the domestic and foreign price difference is huge. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term, but due to weak domestic demand, limited export increment, and export flow restrictions, it will mainly operate with short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: Some urea production plants are under maintenance, with the daily output dropping below 200,000 tons but still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender price has been announced, which boosts market sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer in central and northern China is low, and the overall demand is declining. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the domestic demand is weak, and the export increment is limited. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [5] - **Core Data Changes**: In the 28th week of 2025 (July 10 - 16), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.95%, up 0.36% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 76.37%, down 4.61% month - on - month. In Shandong, the urea capacity utilization rate was 75.70%, up 3.34% month - on - month. In the 29th week of 2025 (July 11 - 17), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.24%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week; the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, up 2.72 percentage points month - on - month. As of July 18, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 800 tons, up 100 tons month - on - month. As of July 16, the average pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, up 0.12 days month - on - month. On July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a decrease of 7.22 tons from last week. The port sample inventory was 54.1 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons month - on - month. In terms of profit, the fixed - bed production profit was 220 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production profit was 360 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 580 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturers' Factory Prices**: Not provided - **Basis**: Not provided - **Regional Spread**: Not provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spreads**: Not provided - **Urea - Methanol Futures Spread**: Not provided - **Raw Coal Price**: Not provided - **Production Profit**: Not provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: Not provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: Not provided - **Urea Output**: Not provided - **Urea Pre - sales**: Not provided - **Urea Inventory**: Not provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: Not provided - **Urea and Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Ratios**: Not provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: Not provided - **Melamine**: Not provided - **Urea Export**: Not provided - **Furniture**: Not provided