证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 19 年 月 日 钢铁 人间正道是沧桑—2026 年度策略 引子：宏观研究体系是投资体系中最重要的环节，我们所有经历的一切都 是在宏观经济这个大背景框架下运行的齿轮。只不过很多周期很长以至于 我们不易察觉，有些距离感以后才能看清楚一些事情的轮廓。当今年一连 串事件冲击后，事实证明其实以前很多担忧都是过虑了。社会认知开始反 思，过去两三年一度流行的"中国经济的日本叙事"论调随之破产。经过 工业化成熟后的转型蜕变，崭新的中国故事也将绽放光芒。新的叙事核心 将是这片热土上创新不断，工业制造这个基座大模型全球唯一，这不仅能 源源不断催生新的投资机会，更有能力在产业的新陈代谢中保持活力。一 切都是时代的过客，绝大部分股票都会服从于时代背景下的资产价格周期 之中，不要奢望某些公司能挣脱烙印，在真正的投资中，能脱离市场真正 走出独立行情的企业是极小概率的事情。如今当大的时代叙事被扭转后， 资本市场新的发展阶段我们需要做的就是如何让具体的投资策略落地； 回归"初心"：股票估值就像钟摆一样，一次次从低估走向高估，又从高 估走向低估。成熟的交易体系首先就是要建 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for key stocks in the steel sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is entering a golden period in the capital market, characterized by capital surplus during the industrialization maturity phase. This phase is expected to enhance market valuations and profitability for leading companies [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in profits for the black metal smelting and rolling industry, reaching 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1370%, marking the highest growth rate among all industrial categories [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side policies, particularly the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to accelerate the reduction of excess supply and improve industry profitability [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily average pig iron production slightly increased to 2.407 million tons, with a marginal rise in long-process production [12]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 sample steel mills is reported at 90.2%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous period [18]. - The total inventory of five major steel products continues to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 3.0% [25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.7% week-on-week, indicating a seasonal decline in rebar demand, while hot-rolled demand showed improvement [41][52]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel was 102,000 tons, down 1.1% from the previous week [43]. Price and Profit Analysis - The comprehensive steel price index increased slightly by 0.1% week-on-week, with the current index at 126.2 [72]. - The immediate gross profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are reported as negative, indicating cost pressures despite slight price increases [72][74]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Xinguang Steel (600782.SH) - Buy - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) - Buy - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) - Buy - Baosteel (600019.SH) - Buy - Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ) - Buy - Liugang (601003.SH) - Buy - Yongjin (603995.SH) - Buy - Changbao (002478.SZ) - Buy [9].