Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various commodities are as follows: - Rebar: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market sentiment is fermenting on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is affected by the rising expectation of industrial product supply - side reform and recent production restrictions in Tangshan. Most commodities are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3][4][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Commodities Steel - Today's steel futures prices rebounded significantly. Rebar's apparent demand stabilized in the short term, production continued to rise, and inventory depletion slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory slightly accumulated. Currently, blast furnaces still have profits, hot metal production remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation has eased. The downstream industries show that infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales hover at a low level, and investment and new construction indicators continue to decline significantly. The manufacturing industry still has some resilience as the June PMI rose to 49.7. The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures prices rose today. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and there is an expectation of a further decline in the future. Domestic arrivals decreased, and short - term arrivals are expected to remain at a relatively high level. Port inventories have stabilized, and there is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory for the time being. On the demand side, terminal demand in the off - season met expectations, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and hot metal production remains at a relatively high level. Recent news of production restrictions in Tangshan and anti - cut - throat competition has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and short - term market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and it is expected to follow the trend of finished steel and show a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. There is an expectation of price increases from coking plants, production profits are meager, and daily coking production has continued to decline from the annual high. The overall coke inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness remains low. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, hot metal production in the off - season has not declined, and the market has some optimistic expectations. The coke futures prices have rebounded, and it is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may lead to a decline in output. The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections during the safety production month. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and the transaction price has risen slightly. Terminal inventory has continued to decline, and the total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the short term. Coking coal is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose during the day. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level has decreased, but weekly production has begun to rise, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has changed from a decrease to an increase. In the medium - to - long - term, manganese ore inventory has been increasing, and in the short - term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines' willingness to hold prices has increased. In the short - term, the spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are in short supply, and the price has slightly increased. Silicomanganese has followed the trend of rebar, but its fundamental improvement is limited, and there is significant pressure above 6750 [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose during the day. Hot metal production remains above 242. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, market trading volume is average, on - balance - sheet inventory has continued to decline, but production - end inventory has begun to accumulate, mainly due to the decline in warehouse receipt inventory. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery from the futures market and reselling to downstream customers, which is conducive to inventory depletion. It is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [8]