Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have shown fluctuations, initially declining and then stabilizing, influenced by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [1] Price Trends - During the week of July 24-30, 2025, the main contract closing price fluctuated from 9690 yuan/ton to 9285 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 4.18% [1] - The national comprehensive price and regional comprehensive prices remained stable, with FOB prices also holding steady [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in industrial silicon prices are primarily driven by market volatility and macroeconomic sentiment, with previous significant price increases not leading to a noticeable improvement in demand [1] - Supply-side conditions show stable operations in northern regions and increased operational enthusiasm in southern regions, leading to an overall increase in production [1] - On the demand side, organic silicon monomer plants have recently increased their operational load, contributing to a rise in market supply and demand for industrial silicon; polysilicon plants maintain stable operations, and aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing industrial silicon as needed [1] Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand fundamentals for industrial silicon have not shown significant improvement, with expectations for August indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand increases [1] - While increased demand may support price increases within a limited range, the simultaneous rise in supply suggests that prices will likely remain in a fluctuating range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable during the past week, with a slight increase in futures prices, influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and market rebound [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The main contract closing price fluctuated between 8010 yuan/ton and 8140 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.62% [1] - Major manufacturers in the northern region are maintaining stable production without plans for further resumption, while some southern region companies are restarting production during the abundant water period, leading to an overall increase in supply [1] - Downstream demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchases, resulting in a lack of trading activity [1] - The organic silicon monomer plants are operating steadily, with expectations for increased production and demand for industrial silicon [1] - The overall operating conditions for polysilicon remain stable, contributing to steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is also maintaining stable operations, supporting consistent demand for industrial silicon [1] Price Trends - The overall inventory in the industrial silicon industry is gradually decreasing, with previous market prices experiencing a slight increase due to futures market influences [1] - Despite the slight price increase, the overall trading atmosphere remains subdued, and the supply-demand fundamentals are still weak [1] - It is anticipated that spot prices will continue to fluctuate within a bottom range, with limited upward potential [1]

Report Information - Report Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran [3] Market Performance - Futures Price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2507 was 8,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87%. The trading volume was 209,508 lots, and the open interest was 155,038 lots, with a net increase of 16,616 lots [4] - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,050 yuan/ton, 9,500 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,300 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 9,700 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] Market Outlook - Supply: In the third week of May, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 69,000 tons. There was no expectation of production cuts in May, and the monthly supply was about 320,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production pressure during the wet season [4] - Demand: There was no increase in demand in May. The monthly output of polysilicon was stable at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The news of polysilicon production cuts was bearish for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises began to cut production to support prices collectively since April. Exports were stable with no increase. The inventory of both futures and spot continued to increase [4] - Outlook: There was no expectation or sign of improvement in the supply - demand situation. The decline in spot prices continued to limit the rebound space, and the market was expected to fluctuate weakly [4] Market News - On May 19, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 66,097 lots, a net decrease of 287 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch reported that in the second quarter, the supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon had not improved. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream demand had not increased significantly, mainly for rigid procurement. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon reached the lowest point of 8,205 yuan/ton since the listing of industrial silicon futures on May 9. Weak demand and low prices on the disk led to a decline in the spot price of industrial silicon [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Silicon Industry Association indicates that the supply and demand fundamentals for industrial silicon have not shown significant improvement, leading to a continuous decline in prices [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand - As of the second quarter, the supply and demand fundamentals for industrial silicon remain weak, with no noticeable improvement [1] - The market trading atmosphere is described as lackluster, with downstream demand not showing significant growth, primarily driven by essential procurement [1] Group 2: Price Trends - On May 9, the closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon reached a record low of 8,205 yuan per ton since the futures listing [1] - The combination of weak demand and depressed market prices has resulted in a decline in the spot price of industrial silicon [1]

进入二季度，工业硅供需基本面仍未见好转，市场交投氛围清淡，下游需求未出现明显增长，多以 刚需采购为主。工业硅主力合约收盘价格在5月9日达到工业硅期货上市以来最低点8205元/吨，需求不 振叠加盘面价格低迷，工业硅现货价格随之下跌。 具体来看，供应端，北方部分厂家停炉减产和南方地区维持低开工，原有产能总体产出减少，同时 新增产能投产计划放缓，但目前已有实际产出，对产量有一定补充，总体产量变动较小，预计产量在进 入丰水期时会有较大幅度的增加。需求端，有机硅单体厂在减产计划支撑下价格大幅提升，利润向上修 复，但后期下游采购热情降温，价格大幅下跌，目前多以观望为主，单体厂多有挺价意愿，生产多以维 持目前开工为主，对工业硅需求基本稳定；多晶硅企业暂无大规模复产计划，对工业硅需求变动较小； 铝合金企业整体生产稳定，按需采购工业硅，总体需求变动较小，未见明显增长，工业硅价格上涨缺乏 动力。 从库存来看，进入二季度，工业硅库存仍处高位（超过90万吨），与一季度末相比基本持平，库存 消耗较为困难。 总体来看，工业硅库存压力较大，叠加下游需求不振，价格难有上涨动力，但目前价格已跌破成本 线，下方空间不大。 ...