Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have shown fluctuations, initially declining and then stabilizing, influenced by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [1] Price Trends - During the week of July 24-30, 2025, the main contract closing price fluctuated from 9690 yuan/ton to 9285 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 4.18% [1] - The national comprehensive price and regional comprehensive prices remained stable, with FOB prices also holding steady [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in industrial silicon prices are primarily driven by market volatility and macroeconomic sentiment, with previous significant price increases not leading to a noticeable improvement in demand [1] - Supply-side conditions show stable operations in northern regions and increased operational enthusiasm in southern regions, leading to an overall increase in production [1] - On the demand side, organic silicon monomer plants have recently increased their operational load, contributing to a rise in market supply and demand for industrial silicon; polysilicon plants maintain stable operations, and aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing industrial silicon as needed [1] Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand fundamentals for industrial silicon have not shown significant improvement, with expectations for August indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand increases [1] - While increased demand may support price increases within a limited range, the simultaneous rise in supply suggests that prices will likely remain in a fluctuating range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable during the past week, with a slight increase in futures prices, influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and market rebound [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The main contract closing price fluctuated between 8010 yuan/ton and 8140 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.62% [1] - Major manufacturers in the northern region are maintaining stable production without plans for further resumption, while some southern region companies are restarting production during the abundant water period, leading to an overall increase in supply [1] - Downstream demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchases, resulting in a lack of trading activity [1] - The organic silicon monomer plants are operating steadily, with expectations for increased production and demand for industrial silicon [1] - The overall operating conditions for polysilicon remain stable, contributing to steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is also maintaining stable operations, supporting consistent demand for industrial silicon [1] Price Trends - The overall inventory in the industrial silicon industry is gradually decreasing, with previous market prices experiencing a slight increase due to futures market influences [1] - Despite the slight price increase, the overall trading atmosphere remains subdued, and the supply-demand fundamentals are still weak [1] - It is anticipated that spot prices will continue to fluctuate within a bottom range, with limited upward potential [1]

Report Information - Report Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran [3] Market Performance - Futures Price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2507 was 8,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87%. The trading volume was 209,508 lots, and the open interest was 155,038 lots, with a net increase of 16,616 lots [4] - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,050 yuan/ton, 9,500 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,300 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 9,700 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] Market Outlook - Supply: In the third week of May, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 69,000 tons. There was no expectation of production cuts in May, and the monthly supply was about 320,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production pressure during the wet season [4] - Demand: There was no increase in demand in May. The monthly output of polysilicon was stable at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The news of polysilicon production cuts was bearish for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises began to cut production to support prices collectively since April. Exports were stable with no increase. The inventory of both futures and spot continued to increase [4] - Outlook: There was no expectation or sign of improvement in the supply - demand situation. The decline in spot prices continued to limit the rebound space, and the market was expected to fluctuate weakly [4] Market News - On May 19, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 66,097 lots, a net decrease of 287 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch reported that in the second quarter, the supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon had not improved. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream demand had not increased significantly, mainly for rigid procurement. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon reached the lowest point of 8,205 yuan/ton since the listing of industrial silicon futures on May 9. Weak demand and low prices on the disk led to a decline in the spot price of industrial silicon [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Silicon Industry Association indicates that the supply and demand fundamentals for industrial silicon have not shown significant improvement, leading to a continuous decline in prices [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand - As of the second quarter, the supply and demand fundamentals for industrial silicon remain weak, with no noticeable improvement [1] - The market trading atmosphere is described as lackluster, with downstream demand not showing significant growth, primarily driven by essential procurement [1] Group 2: Price Trends - On May 9, the closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon reached a record low of 8,205 yuan per ton since the futures listing [1] - The combination of weak demand and depressed market prices has resulted in a decline in the spot price of industrial silicon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon supply and demand fundamentals have not improved entering the second quarter, with a lack of significant growth in downstream demand, primarily driven by just-in-time purchasing [1] Supply Side - Some northern manufacturers have reduced production by shutting down furnaces, while southern regions maintain low operating rates, leading to a decrease in overall output from existing capacity [1] - New capacity investment plans are slowing down, but there is some actual output supplementing the overall production, which is expected to increase significantly during the flood season [1] Demand Side - The price of organic silicon monomer has significantly increased due to production cut plans, restoring profits; however, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, leading to a substantial price drop [1] - Monomer manufacturers are maintaining current operating levels with a willingness to support prices, resulting in stable demand for industrial silicon [1] - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, and aluminum alloy companies are producing steadily, purchasing industrial silicon as needed, leading to little change in overall demand [1] Inventory Situation - Industrial silicon inventory remains high, exceeding 900,000 tons, and is roughly flat compared to the end of the first quarter, indicating difficulties in inventory consumption [1] Overall Market Outlook - The industrial silicon market faces significant inventory pressure, coupled with weak downstream demand, making it difficult for prices to rise; however, prices have fallen below the cost line, indicating limited downside potential [1]