宏观策略（黄金） 黄金税收政策新规出台 周五金价震荡微涨盘中一度明显下跌，市场风险偏好维持高位， 美联储官员开始陆续发表讲话，米兰依旧鸽派，本周关注美国 政府停摆进展，双方达成协议的压力增加。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 日度报告——综合晨报 黄金税收政策新规出台，中国 10 月 PMI 不及 预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-11-03 多位美联储官员齐声反对最新降息 称通胀仍偏高 综 多位美联储官员表态 12 月不会降息，这表明了美联储内部对于 短期降息节奏的控制，美元维持震荡。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 中国 10 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49，前值 49.8 报 11 月是政策空窗期，债市的交易主线将逐渐转向基本面-宽货币 预期，预计整体偏强，不过当前市场走强空间有限，做多需把 握节奏和赔率。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂开机维持高位 上周豆粕期价跟随进口大豆成本上升。恢复采购美豆后，国内 远期进口大豆供应短缺的可能性大大降低，但还需继续关注实 际采购美豆情况及巴西新作产量预期变化。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量下滑到 236.36 万吨 中美元首会见 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial silicon [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,425 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The trading volume was 451,986 lots, and the open interest was 317,763 lots, with a net decrease of 1,130 lots [4] - Spot price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price range of 553 was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Supply: Industrial silicon production has not reached the quantity required for supply - demand balance. The resumption of production during the wet season is continuing to increase the supply [4] - Demand: There is no change in the demand side. Domestic demand remains at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remain at around 50,000 tons. If polysilicon increases the production cut, it will further negatively affect industrial silicon [4] - Inventory: The futures and spot inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, and there is no inventory - reduction driver in the short term [4] - Market trend: Although the supply - demand situation has not improved, the commodity index has continued to rebound recently. The spot price of industrial silicon is supported by the cash cost and remains stable. In the short term, the long and short sides have initially reached a weak balance, and the price will move within a narrow range. The resistance increases when the price rebounds above 7,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - Futures warehouse receipts: On June 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 55,620 lots, a net decrease of 448 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Policy news: The CSRC will allow qualified overseas investors to participate in on - site ETF option trading from October 9, 2025, and the trading purpose is limited to hedging [5] - Export data: According to customs statistics, in April 2025, industrial silicon exports were 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable, and the change in export volume is small [5]