1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term bearish, pay attention to decline risks [12][13] - Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index): Short - term volatile [16][17][18] - US stock index futures: Short - term high - level volatile, bullish in the long - term with profit support [20] - Stock index futures: Long - position balanced allocation [24] - Treasury bond futures: Short - term slightly bullish with limited upside, pay attention to rhythm and odds [27] - Palm oil: Short - term expected to open lower, pay attention to long - position opportunities around 8500 yuan [31] - International soybean oil: Short - term bottom - supported, expected to be volatile [31] - Domestic soybean oil: Short - term expected to be volatile [31] - Power coal: Price supported in the fourth quarter, pay attention to weather and policy [32] - Iron ore: Short - term volatile, pay attention to policy changes [34] - Bean粕: Follow import cost, pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [36] - Sugar: Short - term expected to be volatile [41] - Cotton: Short - term expected to be volatile, long - term cautiously bullish [46] - Rebar/Hot - rolled coil: Short - term volatile [50][51] - Red dates: Wait - and - see, pay attention to price game and purchase progress [52] - Corn starch: 11 - contract CS - C expected to strengthen further, 01 - contract may have price - difference repair [54][55] - Corn: If government - stored wheat is used for feed, there may be short - selling opportunities [56] - Alumina: Wait - and - see [59] - Copper: Short - term expected to be volatile after reaching a high, recommend buying on dips [63] - Lead: Low - inventory, short - term bullish with high uncertainty, positive spread arbitrage possible [65] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see, pay attention to mid - line positive spread arbitrage [70][71] - Polysilicon: Policy and fundamentals in game, long - position holders can hold, consider call options [74] - Industrial silicon: Buying on dips is cost - effective [76] - Lithium carbonate: Short - term range - bound, mid - line short - selling after demand peaks, pay attention to positive spread arbitrage [80][81] - Nickel: Q4 nickel ore price expected to rise, recommend long - position on dips or option strategies [84] - Carbon emissions: Short - term volatile [87] - Crude oil: Volatile [89] - Bottle chips: Short - term supply - demand conflict not prominent, marginal weakening expected [91] - Container freight rates: Volatile, consider long - position on dips [93] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, factors such as gold tax policy, Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rates, and economic data impact market trends. In the commodity market, supply and demand, policy, and seasonal factors affect prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and risks [12][16][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New gold tax policy: VAT on standard gold for investment is refunded immediately, and related taxes are exempted. Physical gold demand may be suppressed, and short - term price is bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index)) - Fed officials oppose December rate cuts due to high inflation, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US stock index futures) - Market expectations for rate cuts are adjusted, and short - term risk appetite declines. The market is volatile at a high level [19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock index futures) - October PMI shows production slowdown, and the stock index is expected to be volatile at a high level. Long - position balanced allocation is recommended [22][23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury bond futures) - October manufacturing PMI declines, and November is a policy window period. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upside is limited [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean oil/Rapeseed oil/Palm oil) - Indonesian palm oil reference price rises slightly, and Malaysia's October palm oil exports increase. Palm oil price is under pressure in the short - term but may be supported later. Soybean oil is expected to be volatile [29][30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Power coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal price is stable. Coal price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the fourth quarter [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron ore) - Third - quarter iron ore sales increase. Demand is affected by environmental protection, and price is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Bean粕) - Oil mill operation rate is high, and bean粕 price follows import cost. Pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [35][36] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazilian sugar production increases, and Indian sugar industry requests export policy. Zheng sugar is expected to be volatile [40][41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought area decreases. Cotton price is expected to be volatile [42][44][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled coil) - Iron water output declines, and steel price is affected by Sino - US relations. Price is expected to be volatile [47][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Red dates) - Xinjiang red dates are in the drying period, and inventory increases. Price is expected to be volatile, wait - and - see [51][52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn starch) - September starch export declines, and October export may increase. 11 - contract CS - C and 01 - contract may strengthen [53][54][55] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn price is stable with narrow fluctuations. Pay attention to government - stored wheat auction [55][56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Inventory increases, and the market is in oversupply. Wait - and - see [57][58][59] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper projects have new progress. Price is affected by the US dollar and inventory, expected to be volatile [60][63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead is in contango. Low - inventory supports price, pay attention to delivery risk [64][65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc mines' output changes. Price is affected by market sentiment and inventory, expected to be volatile [66][69][70] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon futures rise, and price is in a policy - fundamentals game. Pay attention to policy progress [72][73][74] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial silicon) - Southwest production is expected to decrease. Price is expected to be supported, recommend long - position on dips [75][76] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium carbonate) - Company negotiates to sell lithium project stake. Price is affected by supply - demand and inventory, expected to be volatile [77][78][81] 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Company's nickel self - supply increases. Price is affected by inventory, season, and demand, expected to be volatile [82][83][84] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon emissions) - EUA price is volatile. Market trading activity decreases, and signal is neutral [85][86][87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Crude oil) - OPEC decides to increase production in December and pause in Q1 2026. Price is expected to be volatile [87][88][89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle chips) - Bottle chip factory price is adjusted, and supply - demand is expected to weaken marginally [90][91] 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container freight rates) - Shipping company adjusts surcharge. Freight rate is expected to be volatile, consider long - position on dips [92][93]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial silicon [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,425 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The trading volume was 451,986 lots, and the open interest was 317,763 lots, with a net decrease of 1,130 lots [4] - Spot price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price range of 553 was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Supply: Industrial silicon production has not reached the quantity required for supply - demand balance. The resumption of production during the wet season is continuing to increase the supply [4] - Demand: There is no change in the demand side. Domestic demand remains at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remain at around 50,000 tons. If polysilicon increases the production cut, it will further negatively affect industrial silicon [4] - Inventory: The futures and spot inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, and there is no inventory - reduction driver in the short term [4] - Market trend: Although the supply - demand situation has not improved, the commodity index has continued to rebound recently. The spot price of industrial silicon is supported by the cash cost and remains stable. In the short term, the long and short sides have initially reached a weak balance, and the price will move within a narrow range. The resistance increases when the price rebounds above 7,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - Futures warehouse receipts: On June 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 55,620 lots, a net decrease of 448 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Policy news: The CSRC will allow qualified overseas investors to participate in on - site ETF option trading from October 9, 2025, and the trading purpose is limited to hedging [5] - Export data: According to customs statistics, in April 2025, industrial silicon exports were 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable, and the change in export volume is small [5]