宏观策略（黄金） 黄金税收政策新规出台 周五金价震荡微涨盘中一度明显下跌，市场风险偏好维持高位， 美联储官员开始陆续发表讲话，米兰依旧鸽派，本周关注美国 政府停摆进展，双方达成协议的压力增加。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 日度报告——综合晨报 黄金税收政策新规出台，中国 10 月 PMI 不及 预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-11-03 多位美联储官员齐声反对最新降息 称通胀仍偏高 综 多位美联储官员表态 12 月不会降息，这表明了美联储内部对于 短期降息节奏的控制，美元维持震荡。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 中国 10 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49，前值 49.8 报 11 月是政策空窗期，债市的交易主线将逐渐转向基本面-宽货币 预期，预计整体偏强，不过当前市场走强空间有限，做多需把 握节奏和赔率。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂开机维持高位 上周豆粕期价跟随进口大豆成本上升。恢复采购美豆后，国内 远期进口大豆供应短缺的可能性大大降低，但还需继续关注实 际采购美豆情况及巴西新作产量预期变化。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量下滑到 236.36 万吨 中美元首会见 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 旺季去库提速，供应博弈加剧 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 碳酸锂：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 2 日 [Table_Summary] ★旺季去库提速，供应博弈加剧 上周锂盐价格先扬后抑。LC2511 收盘价环比+0.5%至 7.93 万元/ 吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+1.6%至 8.08 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工 业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+6.8%、7.1%至 8.06、7.84 万元/吨。氢 氧化锂价格企稳，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环 比分别+2.9%、2.6%至 7.58、8.07 万元/吨。电工价差环比-2.2% 至 0.22 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比 走阔 0.31 万元至 0.48 万元/吨。 上周碳酸锂维持增仓上行趋势，主力合约持仓量在周四超 53 万 手，续创品种上市以来新高，但周五盘面大幅减仓 2.2 万手，伴 随下跌 3.14%，最终全周涨幅录得 1.6%。据 SMM 数据，本周国 内碳酸锂库存环比去化 0.3 万吨至 12.7 万吨，去库节奏加速使得 强现实逻辑不断被验证，吸引增量资金涌入。但周五盘中市 ...

自8月份以来，碳酸锂行业已连续8周呈现去库态势。数据显示，9月26日当周碳酸锂的周度库存为13.68 万吨，较8月7日当周的14.24万吨，下降4%。 创元期货分析师余烁向期货日报记者表示，碳酸锂行业呈现连续去库态势，主要是因为在当前供需"双 旺"的市场格局下，需求端的增速更快。当前的去库态势，只是阶段性回调，并非行业回暖的信号。 需求端，余烁表示，今年8月份需求端各数据环比走强明显。其中，磷酸铁锂产量为31.6万吨，环比增 加9%；电池产量为160GWh，环比增加11%；储能电池产量50GWh，环比增加13%。"今年1—8月，需 求端各数据累计同比增速高于去年同期。"余烁解释称，9—10月为传统需求旺季，相较于8月，仍维持 环比正增长态势，需求增速远超市场预期。 供应端，自宁德时代枧下窝项目8月9日宣布停产以来，国内碳酸锂云母端来源产量明显走弱，从高峰时 期周产5000吨下降至2500吨，但后续随着宜春银锂检修完毕复产，周产回升至2800吨水平。相关数据显 示，枧下窝项目停产后，锂云母端的碳酸锂月度产量下降约9000吨。"这一变化，符合市场预期，但锂 辉石端带来的增量，使得供应端的总量不减反增。"据余烁介绍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the trading focus in the commodity market will gradually shift back to the industry, with a greater emphasis on fundamental factors. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to decline in September after reaching a record high in August, while the demand from the terminal new - energy vehicle market and the energy storage market is increasing. As a result, the total inventory is likely to continue to decrease, and the price of the lithium carbonate main contract has room for an upward movement after stabilizing [77]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In July, China's economic data showed signs of weakness. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7% (previous value: 6.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7% (previous value: 4.8%). The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6% (previous value: 2.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0% (previous value: - 11.2%). The year - on - year growth rate of general infrastructure investment was 7.3% (previous value: 8.9%), and the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2% (previous value: 7.5%). The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was - 1.5% (previous value: - 4.3%). The Fed Chairman's stance was dovish, and the market expected an over 80% probability of an interest - rate cut in September, betting on two interest - rate cuts within the year [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - The estimated output in August was around 80,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. Although the capacity utilization rate increased due to the rising enthusiasm of external - procurement enterprises to lock in processing profits through the futures market, the output of mica decreased due to the shutdown of leading manufacturers. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [3]. - As of July, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,243,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.42%. The monthly operating rate was 45.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The output in July was 85,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 26% [12]. - As of August 22, the lithium carbonate output was 20,438 tons, a week - on - week increase of 345 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The output of lithium hydroxide was 4,730 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 32.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China reached 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% compared with the same period in August last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [4]. - In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in six European countries was 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the US was 144,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 13% [4]. - In July, the domestic energy storage market had a tender scale of 9.0GW/25.8GWh for energy - storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders including equipment, and there were also 1.73GWh of energy - storage DC - side orders finalized. The average price of 2 - hour energy - storage systems was 0.526 yuan/Wh, a month - on - month decrease of 17.9% [32]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In July, the smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 13% [33]. 3.4 Inventory - As of August 28, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 43,336 tons, a decrease of 8,622 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 52,800 tons, an increase of 8,920 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 888 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,957 tons, an increase of 23,412 tons from the previous month [4]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of August 28, the average industry cost was 68,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,596 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% was 680 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 146 US dollars/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 13,954 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,495 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,417 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,079 yuan, and the industry profit was 13,954 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,498 yuan. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,167 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,006 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,089 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,453 yuan [60][62]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 35,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 161 yuan/ton, and the loss was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [64]. 3.6 Market Price - As of August 27, the LC2511 contract closed at a price with a 14.4% increase compared with the previous month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.3% compared with the previous month, and the basis changed from a large premium to a discount. The position of the main contract was 347,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in August. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 13.14%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.59% [6]. 3.7 Import and Export - In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. The import volume from Chile was 8,584 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [19]. - In July 2025, the import volume of spodumene in China was 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The import volume from Australia was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.2% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [22]. 3.8 Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after a sufficient correction, with a reference range of [75,000, 90,000] [78]. - Hedging strategy: In the long - term, the market is still in an oversupply situation. Production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [78].