2025 年 12 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：去库延续但现货成交疲软，区间震荡延续 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 95,920 | -1,060 | 5,160 | 1,280 | 9,340 | 23,940 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 47,866 | -7,332 | -49,194 | -95,401 | -1,097,463 | -27,339 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 105,75 ...

2025 年 12 月 5 日 碳酸锂：去库边际放缓，上方或承压 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 92,260 | 200 | -1,740 | -6,720 | 13,700 | 13,740 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 101,978 | -11,379 | -114,937 | -1,493,668 | -874,000 | 22,106 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 203,219 | -13,013 | -76,989 | -276,3 ...

碳酸锂去库放缓，下游维持刚需采购 市场分析 2025-12-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于96840元/吨，收于96560元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.72%。当日 成交量为454290手，持仓量为552239手，前一交易日持仓量543633手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-2240元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单8992手，较上个交易日变化770手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价92300-96500元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价90800-93100元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1215美元/吨，较前一日变化-8美元/吨。据SMM 数据，下游材料厂多有长协订单与客供渠道支撑正常生产，散单采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交清淡。目前，上下 游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产 线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面， 12月新能源汽车销量仍较好；储能市场则延续供需两旺态势，供应偏紧格局依旧。电芯及正极材料排产在 ...

来源：华泰期货 作者： 王育武 市场分析 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025-12-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于96840元/吨，收于96560元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变 化-0.72%。当日成交量为454290手，持仓量为552239手，前一交易日持仓量543633手，根据SMM现货 报价，目前基差为-2240元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单8992手，较上个交易日变化770手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价92300-96500元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，工业 级碳酸锂报价90800-93100元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1215美元/吨，较前一日变 化-8美元/吨。据SMM数据，下游材料厂多有长协订单与客供渠道支撑正常生产，散单采购仍以刚需为 主，市场成交清淡。目前，上下游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数 与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂 产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面，12月新能源汽车销量仍较好；储 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market indices rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Nasdaq up 0.65%, the Dow Jones up 0.61%, and the S&P 500 up 0.54%. The S&P 500 achieved its largest weekly gain in five months, marking seven consecutive months of increases [1] - Metal prices surged, with spot silver reaching a record high, climbing 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce, and LME copper rising 2.5% to around $11,210 per ton [1] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, with WTI crude oil down 0.2% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.8% to $62.38 per barrel [4] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and assessing the impact of geopolitical situations on market supply [4] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - The core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market remains under discussion, with expectations for the resumption of the Jiangxia lithium mine already priced in, leading to a low opening and subsequent rise in futures prices [6][7] - Current long-term demand growth for lithium carbonate is considered stable, despite seasonal production cuts from salt lake lithium extraction [7] - Weekly inventory data shows a decrease in lithium carbonate inventory, with a reduction of 2,452 tons, indicating a slowing down of the inventory drawdown trend [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is entering a demand verification phase, with analysts emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand expectations and the timing of the Jiangxia lithium mine's resumption [10] - There is a consensus on optimistic long-term expectations for lithium carbonate, but near-term contracts face uncertainty due to the interplay of strong current demand and weak future expectations [9]

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices rose collectively for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Nasdaq up 0.65%, the Dow Jones up 0.61%, and the S&P 500 up 0.54% [2] - The S&P 500 index achieved its largest weekly gain in five months, marking a seven-month streak of increases [2] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot silver and LME copper prices reached record highs, with spot silver rising 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce and COMEX silver futures for March up 6.49% to $57.085 per ounce [2] - London copper prices increased by 2.5%, reaching approximately $11,210 per ton [2] Group 3: Oil Market - International oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, with WTI crude oil down 0.2% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.8% to $62.38 per barrel [5] - Traders are monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and assessing the impact of geopolitical situations on market supply [5] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market remains under discussion, with expectations of the Jiangxia lithium mine's resumption already priced in [7] - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a low opening and high closing trend, with the LC2605 contract settling at 96,420 yuan per ton, down 0.62% [7] - Analysts suggest that the resumption of the Jiangxia lithium mine will not significantly impact next year's supply-demand balance, as the market is more focused on demand-driven trading logic [7][8] Group 5: Inventory and Demand Trends - Current long-term demand growth for lithium carbonate is considered stable, despite seasonal production cuts in lithium extraction from salt lakes [8] - Weekly inventory data indicates a decrease of 2,452 tons, with total lithium carbonate inventory at 116,000 tons as of November 28 [8] - Expectations for December indicate a potential shift from inventory depletion to accumulation, with a forecasted decrease of around 12,000 tons in November [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is entering a demand verification phase, with a focus on the realization of demand expectations for next year [10] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor the timing of the Jiangxia lithium mine's resumption and the production levels of lithium carbonate, along with overseas mining and South American salt lake export data [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate has slowed down, and the cooling market sentiment may lead to a price correction [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 98,980 yuan, down 320 yuan; the trading volume was 1,595,646 lots, down 171,782 lots; the open interest was 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots [1]. - **2605 Contract**: The closing price was 100,120 yuan, down 340 yuan; the trading volume was 627,740 lots, up 200,318 lots; the open interest was 339,769 lots, up 20,438 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The quantity was 26,916 lots, up 150 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2601 contract was -7,680 yuan; the basis between 2601 and 2605 contracts was -1,140 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,117 yuan, up 31 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2.0%-2.5%) was 2,700 yuan, up 125 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 91,300 yuan, up 2,400 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 88,900 yuan, up 2,400 yuan [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92,400 yuan/ton, up 2,563 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton [2]. - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 118,420 tons, a destocking of 2,052 tons from last week [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was -1, indicating a bearish view [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant price increase, reaching a new high since July 2024, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 17, lithium carbonate futures opened higher and closed at 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a new high since July 2024 [1]. - The price of lithium carbonate has increased nearly 18% in November alone, with a more than 60% rise from the June low [2][3]. - The spot market for high-quality lithium carbonate was reported between 90,500 yuan/ton and 90,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a price adjustment of 3,600 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% to 1.9 million tons by 2026, with potential price increases if demand growth reaches 40% [1]. - The electric vehicle sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a 42.1% year-on-year increase in battery installation in October, totaling 84.1 GWh [3]. - The energy storage market is also thriving, with a 57.5% year-on-year increase in energy cell production, indicating a dual demand boost for lithium carbonate [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The supply side has shown improvement, with lithium carbonate production increasing by 385 tons to 23,850 tons last week [5]. - The market is experiencing a significant reduction in inventory, with expectations of over 12,000 tons of inventory reduction in November [6]. - The ongoing high operating rates in the supply chain, coupled with new production capacity from overseas salt lakes, may limit the upward price potential in the long term [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant price increase, reaching a new high since July 2024, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3][4]. Demand Recovery and Price Increase - Lithium carbonate futures have risen nearly 18% in November, with the main contract closing at 95,200 yuan/ton [5]. - Compared to the price low in June, the continuous main contract for lithium carbonate has increased over 60% [6]. - The current market price for high-quality lithium carbonate is between 90,500 yuan/ton and 90,900 yuan/ton, with battery-grade prices in the same range, reflecting a daily increase of 3,600 yuan [6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by rapid growth in both commercial and passenger electric vehicles, as well as a robust energy storage market [7]. - The production of power batteries in October reached 84.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.715 million units, up 6.12% month-on-month [7]. - The energy storage market is also experiencing significant growth, with a reported production of 861.04 GWh for power batteries and 355.1 GWh for energy storage batteries in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45.6% and 57.5%, respectively [7]. Supply Chain and Inventory Trends - The market is currently experiencing a significant reduction in inventory, with expectations of over 12,000 tons of inventory reduction in November [10]. - Recent supply chain disruptions, including a three-month shutdown of the Jiangxia mine and regulatory reviews affecting production in Yichun and Qinghai, have contributed to supply constraints [10]. - Analysts predict that if the Jiangxia mine does not resume production, inventory reduction could reach approximately 8,000 tons in December [10]. Future Outlook - The demand for lithium is expected to continue growing, with UBS forecasting that global energy storage demand will increase from 396 GWh in 2026 to 873 GWh by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [7]. - However, there are concerns about potential price pressures due to high production levels and the release of new overseas salt lake capacities, which may limit price increases in the long term [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate continues to show a tight supply - demand balance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks, and the de - stocking amplitude has further expanded. Although domestic production has continuously reached new highs and the import volume is expected to increase in November, the terminal market is strong. However, the expected acceleration of the resumption of production may put pressure on the price. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking for long positions near the previous high and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In October, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50 in October, with Germany and France in continuous contraction. The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 8 consecutive months, but the service PMI reached an 8 - month high. The US government shutdown has entered its 36th day [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 50%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, with 16,200 tons exported to China [3]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a 9% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.922 million vehicles, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 4% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 23.769 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased. The price of African SC 5% remained unchanged at $630 per ton compared to last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $940 per ton, a decrease of $53 per ton from last week. The market price of lepidolite was 2,775 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan from last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 30,715 tons, a decrease of 1,336 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.6 Market Review - As of November 7, LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,250 yuan per ton, a 2.7% decrease from last week. The basis discount widened, and the main contract's open interest was 492,000. The main contract first declined and then rose this week. On Tuesday, the market was impacted by the news of the full resumption of mica mines by CATL and Guoxuan, causing the lithium price to drop significantly. However, due to strong downstream demand, tight supply - demand balance, and continuous de - stocking, the price was difficult to fall deeply [8]. 3.7 Product Output and Operating Rate - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of November 7, the output was 23,465 tons, a week - on - week increase of 145 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. The price increase stimulated production enthusiasm, and the production of some enterprises increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: As of November 7, the output was 6,455 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.72%. Mainstream holders focused on fulfilling long - term contracts, and cathode material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [12]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of November 7, the output was 96,856 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,420 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.24%, a week - on - week increase of 7.41%. The industry was in a situation of both strong supply and demand [14]. - **Ternary Materials**: The demand in the power field was strong, and the production schedule increased slightly [16]. - **Other Cathode Materials**: The demand structure was differentiated, and the supply remained stable [24]. 3.8 Inventory Situation - **Lithium Carbonate Industry**: As of November 6, the total inventory was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,332 tons, a decrease of 289 tons from last week. The post - holiday de - stocking accelerated, and the warehouse receipt continued to decline, intensifying the tightness of spot circulation [32]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry**: As of November 7, the total inventory was 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons from last week. The finished - product inventory continued to decline, and the market demand drove inventory digestion [35]. 3.9 Cost and Profit of Products - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of November 7, the production cost was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuation of lithium carbonate, and the de - stocking trend supported the price [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: As of November 7, the production cost was 68,465 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,001 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 7,643 yuan per ton, an increase of 943 yuan from last week. The supply tightened, and the inventory de - stocking supported the price [51]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of November 7, the production cost was 36,677 yuan per ton, a decrease of 220 yuan from last week, and the loss was 2,463 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week. Although the raw material price was strong and the demand was high, the over - capacity of conventional products limited price increases [53]. - **Ternary Materials and Other Products**: The cost - profit transmission was not smooth, and the industry profit level faced challenges [56].