Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12050, with an opening price of 11760 and a current price of 12058, reflecting a 1.43% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 12107, while the lowest was 11760, indicating a short-term bearish trend in silver futures [1] Group 2 - The delayed US August factory orders report shows a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, aligning with initial expectations [3] - Durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, while non-durable goods orders slightly decreased by 0.1% [3] - Excluding transportation, factory orders saw a modest rise of 0.1% [3] Group 3 - A significant contributor to the increase in orders was a 21.8% surge in civilian aircraft orders, adding $4.2 billion to the total [4] - Other transportation orders also performed well, with defense aircraft orders rising by $1.2 billion to $6.7 billion and ship/boat orders increasing by $0.5 billion to $4.7 billion [4] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders grew by 0.3%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, particularly in machinery (up 1.2% to $39.2 billion) and metal products (up 0.7% to $41.5 billion) [4] Group 4 - Silver futures experienced a rebound after dropping to around 11700, closing temporarily at 11950, with ongoing long positions being held [5] - The potential for further upward movement in silver prices is anticipated, with short-term targets set at 12200 and medium-term at 12500 [5]

Core Insights - The core point of the article is that while U.S. factory orders showed a rebound in August, the decline in core shipments adds uncertainty to the economic growth outlook [1][3][4]. Group 1: Factory Orders Performance - U.S. factory orders increased by 1.4% month-over-month in August, reversing a 1.3% decline in July, driven primarily by a 2.9% surge in durable goods orders, particularly a 7.9% rise in transportation equipment orders [1][4]. - Year-over-year, factory orders rose by 3.8%, indicating a recovery from previous declines [4]. Group 2: Core Shipments and Economic Indicators - Core shipments, which are crucial for GDP calculations, fell by 0.4% month-over-month in August, contrasting with a 0.6% increase in July [3][6]. - The overall manufacturing product shipments decreased by 0.1% in August, ending a 0.9% growth trend from July [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Non-Durable Goods Orders - Manufacturing inventories remained stable in August, with a ratio of 1.56 between inventories and shipments, unchanged from July, indicating no significant inventory pressure [6]. - Non-durable goods orders also showed weakness, declining by 0.1% in August after a 0.3% increase in July [6]. Group 4: Data Timeliness and Market Implications - Analysts noted that the lag in data release diminishes its practical utility for assessing the current economic situation, as the August data was published three months later [7][9]. - Despite the overall stable performance of core durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% month-over-month, the timeliness of the data limits its effectiveness in guiding investor sentiment regarding the manufacturing sector [9].

Core Insights - The service sector in the Eurozone shows significant divergence, with Germany, Spain, and Italy experiencing expansion, while France remains in contraction for the 14th consecutive month [1][2][3][4] Service Sector Performance - France's October service PMI is at 48.0, below September's 48.5, indicating ongoing contraction due to weak demand and political uncertainty [1] - Germany's service PMI rose to 54.6, the highest since May 2023, driven by increased domestic demand and new business growth [2] - Italy's service PMI increased to 54.0, marking the strongest expansion in 17 months, supported by strong output and new orders [3] - Spain's service PMI surged to 56.6, the highest in ten months, with business activity boosted by marketing efforts and new contracts [3] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The Eurozone manufacturing sector shows fragile recovery, with output growing for the eighth consecutive month but new orders remaining flat [4] - Germany's manufacturing sector continues to show signs of contraction, with a significant slowdown in output growth [4] - France's manufacturing PMI remains below the 50 mark for 34 months, affected by domestic political instability and weak customer demand [4] - Greece's manufacturing PMI remains in expansion for the 12th month, driven by robust domestic demand [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The Eurozone exhibits a "strong South, weak North" pattern in the service sector, with Southern European countries benefiting from improved domestic demand and stable policy environments [6] - The manufacturing sector reflects a similar "strong South, weak North" dynamic, with Southern countries emerging as growth drivers amid challenges faced by traditional industrial engines like Germany and France [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly preview of key economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. Different economic indicators and events may have various effects on different types of futures, such as industrial product futures, stock index futures, bond futures, and precious metal futures. For example, if certain manufacturing PMI data is higher than the previous value, it may slightly boost the prices of industrial product futures and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3][11][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On June 30 at 09:30, China's June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI will be released [2][3]. - On July 1 at 09:45, Markit will announce China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI [2][11]. - On July 1 at 22:00, the US ISM will release the US June ISM manufacturing PMI [2][17]. - On July 2 at 20:15, the US ADP will announce the June ADP employment change [2][19]. - On July 3 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June non - farm payroll report [2][22]. - Also, pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview June 30 - China's June official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.3). A slight increase in manufacturing PMI may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.2% (previous 2.1%) [5]. - The US June Chicago PMI is expected to be 43 (previous 40.5) [8]. - The European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra from June 30 to July 2 [9]. July 1 - The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at 00:00, which may affect agricultural product futures [10]. - China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49 (previous 48.3). A slight increase may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [11]. - Germany's May real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0% (previous - 1.2%) [12]. - Germany's June seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.3%), and the number of unemployed is expected to increase by 15,000 (previous 34,000) [13]. - The eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.0% (previous 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [14]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [15]. - Global Western central bank governors will have a panel discussion at 21:30 [16]. - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.8 (previous 48.5). A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures but suppress gold and silver futures [17]. July 2 - The eurozone's May unemployment rate is expected to be 6.2% (previous 6.2%) [18]. - The US June ADP new employment is expected to be 85,000 (previous 37,000). An increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [19]. - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [20]. July 3 - China's June Caixin services PMI is expected to be 51.5 (previous 51.1) [21]. - The US June seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is expected to be 110,000 (previous 139,000), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3% (previous 4.2%), and the average hourly wage annual rate is expected to be 3.9% (previous 3.9%). A significant decrease in new non - farm employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate may boost gold and silver futures but suppress other industrial product futures [22]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 are expected to be 240,000 (previous 236,000) [23]. - The US May factory orders monthly rate is expected to be 8% (previous - 0.37%). A significant increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [25]. - The US June ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 49.9). A slight increase may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [26]. July 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in circulation in late June, covering 9 categories and 50 products [27]. July 6 - OPEC + eight member countries will hold a meeting to decide the production policy for August, which may affect related commodity futures [28].