然而，现实并未如印度所愿。中国市场已非常成熟，产业链完整，价格体系透明。无论是制造业产品还是基础工业品，印度的商品在成本、质量、规模上均 处于劣势，即使进入中国市场，也很难维持稳定的销量。事实上，印度人自己清楚，过去印度市场并未完全被中国产品占领，主要得益于本土的保护政策。 如今，反过来期待印度商品能够填补美国市场留下的空缺，本身就透露出一种明显的政策焦虑。 尽管印度的出口并没有立即出现剧烈下降，部分月份甚至出现增长，印度的企业通过调整价格、改换销售路径和产品类别等手段来应对高关税。这让莫迪产 生了错觉，认为只需作出一些小的让步，就能缓解压力。最终，印度在能源领域做出了妥协，减少了从俄罗斯进口的石油量。据多个机构的数据显示，印度 接收俄罗斯原油的数量已显著下降，达到了近三年来的最低水平。彭博社也报道说，印度的炼油系统正在为减少俄罗斯原油采购做准备，并加速寻找替代供 应来源。 哥伦比亚的原油被引入印度的采购系统，表面上是一个商业选择，但实际上却是一个明确的政治信号，显示印度希望向美国表明自己在能源采购上可以作出 调整。然而，这一步骤并不保险。美国方面认为印度在减少从俄罗斯进口石油方面的力度仍然不够大，特朗普的真 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月31日，国家统计局数据显示，12月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区 间。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数和 从业人员指数均低于临界点。12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，重返扩张区间。12月份，综合PMI产出指 数为50.7%，比上月上升1.0个百分点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月扩张。 原文如下： 2025年12月中国采购经理指数运行情况 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 12月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，仍低于临 界点；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数和从业 人员 ...

9月出口增长或受益于部分制造业和能源产品外销回暖，而进口增长乏力可能与企业库存调整及消费者 支出节奏变化有关。不过，鉴于全年逆差仍在显著扩大，美国对外贸易结构性失衡问题尚未根本缓解。 （文章来源：新华财经） 细分来看，商品贸易逆差是此次逆差收窄的主要驱动力。9月商品贸易逆差减少71亿美元，降至790亿美 元。与此同时，服务贸易顺差小幅收窄6亿美元，录得262亿美元。 新华财经北京12月11日电美国商务部最新公布的数据显示，9月美国商品与服务出口额升至2893亿美 元，环比增加84亿美元；同期进口额为3421亿美元，仅微增19亿美元。受此影响，当月整体贸易逆差收 窄至528亿美元，较前一个月明显改善，并降至2020年年中以来最小水平。 尽管单月数据呈现积极信号，但累计趋势仍显压力。2025年年初至今，美国总体贸易逆差已较2024年同 期扩大1126亿美元，增幅为17.2%。其中，出口总额同比增长5.2%，达1251亿美元；进口总额则增长 7.7%，达2377亿美元。这一对比反映出美国内部需求持续强于海外对其商品与服务的采购意愿。 ...

Core Insights - The core point of the article is that while U.S. factory orders showed a rebound in August, the decline in core shipments adds uncertainty to the economic growth outlook [1][3][4]. Group 1: Factory Orders Performance - U.S. factory orders increased by 1.4% month-over-month in August, reversing a 1.3% decline in July, driven primarily by a 2.9% surge in durable goods orders, particularly a 7.9% rise in transportation equipment orders [1][4]. - Year-over-year, factory orders rose by 3.8%, indicating a recovery from previous declines [4]. Group 2: Core Shipments and Economic Indicators - Core shipments, which are crucial for GDP calculations, fell by 0.4% month-over-month in August, contrasting with a 0.6% increase in July [3][6]. - The overall manufacturing product shipments decreased by 0.1% in August, ending a 0.9% growth trend from July [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Non-Durable Goods Orders - Manufacturing inventories remained stable in August, with a ratio of 1.56 between inventories and shipments, unchanged from July, indicating no significant inventory pressure [6]. - Non-durable goods orders also showed weakness, declining by 0.1% in August after a 0.3% increase in July [6]. Group 4: Data Timeliness and Market Implications - Analysts noted that the lag in data release diminishes its practical utility for assessing the current economic situation, as the August data was published three months later [7][9]. - Despite the overall stable performance of core durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% month-over-month, the timeliness of the data limits its effectiveness in guiding investor sentiment regarding the manufacturing sector [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 70th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.1 times, at the historical 56th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 27.7 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 30.4 times, at the historical 10th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 36.9 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the National 2000 Index is 48.3 times, at the historical 65th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 131.8 times, at the historical 97th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 63.9 times, at the historical 92nd percentile [3][6] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 4th percentile [3][6] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [3][4] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [3][4] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [3][4] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 12.2%, and spot prices decreased by 0.7% [3][4] - The price of silicon wafers dropped by 2.8%, while battery prices fell by 6.9% [3][4] - Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively [3][4] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while iron ore prices fell by 1.7% [3][4] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 fell by 10.7% year-on-year [3][4] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.4%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 0.3% [3][4] - The retail sales growth rate from January to May 2025 was 5.0%, with a significant rebound in May [3][4] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 8.5% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] Technology TMT - The output of integrated circuits grew by 6.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - The export value of optical communication modules decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [3][4] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.9% to $77.32 per barrel [3][4] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2% [3][4]