来源：华尔街情报圈 又涨了。 - 美国股市全线上涨，道琼斯指数涨0.16%，标普500指数涨0.46%，纳斯达克指数涨0.57%； - 黄金、白银和铜均创下历史新高，金价盘中高点距4500仅差1美元； - 油价也延续涨势，连续第三个交易日上涨。 这是一轮"没人反对"，而不是"大家同意"的上涨。 第一，现在对市场来说，没有消息就是好消息，这是年底最典型的状态。这种上涨，最大的特征 是"涨，但没人兴奋；创新高，但讨论度不高"。对应的不是顶部，而是叙事空窗期。 第二，黄金、白银、铜一起涨，并同步创下历史新高——这是一个极不寻常的组合，但不是一个"方向 信号"，而是一个状态信号。 黄金：为不确定性定价 第四，VIX暴跌，创年内新低（短线交易者在"卖恐慌"），但 VIX 曲线极度陡峭（长线资金在"买不确 定性"）——VIX 的结构，比点位本身重要一百倍。换句话说，现在的平静，是用未来的价格换来的。 这不是上涨的终点，但已经是"上涨理由"的终点。短期市场仍旧偏向上涨，但"为什么涨"，已经越来越 难讲清楚。而一旦市场需要"讲清楚理由"，往往就离变盘不远了。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 白银 ...

从资金流向来看，市场资金不断买卖中证500的ETF。中证500 ETF的规模已经达到了2459.35亿元，上 周净流入了327亿元，占股票ETF净流入总额的70%。例如，华夏、国泰、易方达旗下的中证500 ETF规 模均已超过200亿元，广发和嘉实旗下的相关ETF规模也超过了100亿元。这些数据表明，资金正在持续 流入市场，而不是流出。 因此，综合以上分析，当前市场并不具备大幅下跌的基础。相反，市场可能会在当前位置上继续震荡， 并逐渐向上突破。接下来可以关注3900点的市场表现。 在8月22日之后，财经领域有不少观点认为市场可能会出现下跌，但通过分析数据，我们可以发现市场 并不具备大幅下跌的条件。原因在于ETF的持续买入行为为市场提供了强大的支撑。 据数据显示，截至12月15日，ETF的总体份额达到了3.3万亿份，总规模达到了5.78万亿元，较年初增加 了2万亿元。这意味着今年ETF的资金流入量达到了2万亿元，这是一股不容忽视的增量资金，对市场的 稳定和上涨起到了重要的推动作用。 与此同时，央行公布的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）数据显示，一年期LPR为3.0%，五年期LPR为 3.56%，且近几个月LPR保持稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global fund managers are returning to the Chinese market, driven by a rebound in global stock markets and advancements in China's high-tech industry [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - On September 29, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks surged, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both rising over 2% [4][12]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.03%, with major Chinese concept stocks like Bilibili and Alibaba rising over 4% [12]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs reported that hedge fund activity in China's stock market reached its highest level in years last month [6]. - As of the end of August, foreign long funds saw an inflow of $1 billion, a significant recovery from a $17 billion outflow the previous year [7]. - According to Morgan Stanley, global funds are currently underweight in Chinese equities, indicating substantial room for increased investment [8]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are more concerned about missing opportunities rather than risks, with a notable increase in interest in Chinese assets [6][8]. - Over 90% of clients expressed a willingness to increase exposure to China during recent roadshows, marking the highest interest since early 2021 [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts expect the upward trend in the stock market to continue post-October holiday, supported by reasonable market valuations and improving fundamentals [13][14]. - The upcoming 20th National Congress is anticipated to create a key window for the A-share market, potentially boosting investor sentiment [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the probability of market increase today is high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which enhances global liquidity and positively impacts stock markets [1][2] - The strong performance of the market last Friday, with major indices showing significant gains, indicates that bullish sentiment remains dominant, particularly with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 54 points, or 1.45% [2] - Continuous inflow of funds into the market, evidenced by a trading volume increase to 120 billion, suggests that the upward trend is likely to persist as long as capital continues to flow in [2] Group 2 - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance and hold onto stocks as long as the market's upward trend remains intact, while being cautious of stocks that have surged significantly and may require profit-taking [3] - It is important to differentiate between various stocks, as not all will rise simultaneously, and investors should be prepared for a significant high point after the current acceleration, which presents an opportunity for selling [3] - Monitoring market changes, identifying sectors with opportunities and risks, and being aware of potential pullback triggers are crucial for investment strategies moving forward [3]

美国总统特朗普：市场上涨带来惊人变化。 ...