Group 1 - The S&P 500 index achieved a five-day consecutive rise, reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil and gold futures fell by over 1% [1] - Domestic double焦 (coke and coal) futures experienced a significant drop after intervention from exchanges [1] Group 2 - The US and EU reached a trade agreement that will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the US [1] - In June, US durable goods orders saw a preliminary month-on-month decline of 9.3%, marking the largest monthly drop since the pandemic, primarily due to a decrease in aircraft orders [1] - Reports suggest that following an agreement between Japan and the US, the Bank of Japan may resume interest rate hikes within the year [1] Group 3 - In June, China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw a year-on-year profit decline narrow to 4.3%, with significant support from the equipment manufacturing sector [1] - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit growth of 96.8% [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized efforts to consolidate the market's recovery and enhance multi-level market vitality through reforms [1] Group 4 - The State Council of China announced measures to gradually implement free preschool education [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified its stance on issues such as "overcapacity" and industrial subsidies in the context of China-EU disagreements [1] - The Prime Minister of Cambodia is set to lead a delegation to Malaysia for discussions with Thailand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with transaction volume increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in prices and market expectations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Transaction Volume and Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the total transaction area for both new and second-hand homes reached 82.04 million square meters, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, which is at the median level over the past six years [5]. - The year-on-year growth rate for second-hand homes outpaced that of new homes in most cities, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing around 50% increases in second-hand transactions [6][8]. - The "recognizing house but not loan" policy has led to a 40% week-on-week increase in viewings for second-hand homes in key cities, indicating a quicker recovery in new home purchases [10]. Group 2: Listing Volume and Market Dynamics - The growth rate of new listings for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 55% in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou saw declines of 11% and 19% [12][14]. - The proportion of listings for luxury homes priced over 10 million yuan has increased in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen has seen a decline in high-end listings [15][20]. Group 3: Demand Segmentation and Price Trends - The concentration of transactions for affordable housing has decreased, while the demand for high-end and luxury properties has increased, particularly in the 140 square meters and above segment [23][27]. - Over half of the second-hand housing units in major cities have seen price increases, with more than 50% of neighborhoods in Shanghai and Hangzhou reporting rising prices [33][35]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai has narrowed over the past year, with current negotiation margins remaining below 20% in major cities [44]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is transitioning from a phase of "price reduction for volume" to "volume increase with stable prices," indicating a more active supply and demand dynamic [42][43]. - The recovery in market confidence is reflected in the rising prices of high-end properties, while the prices of affordable housing are stabilizing, suggesting a potential upward trend in the near future [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with transaction volume increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in prices and market expectations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Transaction Trends - In Q1 2025, the total transaction area for both new and second-hand homes reached 82.04 million square meters, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, which is at the median level of the past six years [5]. - The year-on-year growth rate for second-hand homes outpaced that of new homes in most cities, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing around 50% increases in second-hand transactions [6][8]. - The transaction volume for new homes in Shenzhen surged by 83% year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year [6]. Group 2: Listing Trends - The growth rate of new listings for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 55% in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou saw declines of 11% and 19% [12][14]. - The proportion of listings for luxury homes priced over 10 million yuan has increased in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen experienced a decline in high-end listings [15][20]. Group 3: Buyer Demand - The proportion of transactions for affordable housing remains above 50%, but the concentration has decreased, with higher demand for improved and luxury properties [23]. - The transaction share for properties priced between 5 million and 30 million yuan has increased, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards higher-value homes [23][31]. Group 4: Price Trends - Over 50% of second-hand housing communities in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have seen price increases, with Beijing reaching 46% [33]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in major cities has narrowed, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou all having less than 20% negotiation space [35][44]. - High-end properties are leading the price increases, with a significant portion of affordable housing also showing signs of price stabilization [44][45]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is transitioning from a "price-for-volume" strategy to a "volume-increase-price-stability" model, indicating a more active supply and demand dynamic [42]. - The concentration of transactions is shifting towards core urban areas, with notable increases in transaction volumes in key districts of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [43].