ETF 资金大幅流出，主动外资流入边际抬升 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | 投资者微观行为洞察手册·1 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度下降，赚钱效应边际上升。从资金层面看，融资资金小幅流出， 偏股公募基金新发行边际上升，ETF 资金持续大幅流出，外资流入 A 股和港股。 投资要点： 策 观 [Table_Report] 相关报告 察 资产概览：国际金银价格刷新历史记录 2026.01.26 成交活跃度下降，中证 1000 估值领涨 2026.01.25 AI 硬件景气强化，科技制造 ...

Market Pricing Status - The market transaction activity has increased, but the profit-making effect has marginally decreased. The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market rose to 2 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks that increased in value dropped to 31.8% [6][12][9] - The trading concentration has improved, with five industries showing turnover rates above the 90th percentile historically, including defense and military, commercial retail, and light industry manufacturing [6][12] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - The issuance of new equity funds has decreased to 9.11 billion yuan, while financing capital inflow has accelerated, with net buying amounting to 26.04 billion yuan [6][23][16] - The confidence index for private equity funds remained stable compared to November, with positions nearing the highest level of the year as of December 5 [6][34] - Foreign capital inflow into the A-share market was 0.1 million USD as of December 10, with the proportion of northbound capital transactions dropping to 30.0% historically [6][35][39] - The net amount raised from IPOs was 1.27 billion yuan, and the scale of private placements was 1.34 billion yuan, with a total of 13.03 billion yuan in restricted shares set to be unlocked in the coming week [6][16] A-Share Industry Allocation - Foreign and financing capital have both flowed into the electronics sector, with net inflows of 13.8 million USD and 70.6 billion yuan respectively [6][3.1] - In the ETF market, net inflows were concentrated in non-ferrous metals (2.2 billion yuan) and transportation (860 million yuan), while outflows were seen in non-bank financials (2.9 billion yuan) and defense and military (2.6 billion yuan) [6][3.2] - The top three industries in the龙虎榜 (top trading list) were electronics, light industry manufacturing, and environmental protection [6][3.4] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flow - Southbound capital has turned to outflows, while foreign capital has marginally flowed into the US and emerging markets. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.4% during this period [6][4.1] - The net outflow of southbound capital was 3.44 billion yuan, placing it in the 6% percentile since 2022 [6][4.2] - In the global context, foreign capital has marginally flowed into the US and South Korea, with inflows of 2.03 billion USD and 610 million USD respectively [6][4.3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm in the market declined this period. In terms of funds, the issuance of equity - oriented funds increased marginally, the inflow of margin trading funds accelerated, while foreign funds had a slight outflow from A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Pricing Status: The trading enthusiasm declined marginally - **Market sentiment**: The trading turnover rate decreased, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - shares dropped to 1.8 trillion, the average daily number of limit - up stocks rose to 73.2, the maximum consecutive limit - up number was 7, the limit - up board rate rose to 78.6%, and the number of stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List decreased to 59 [5]. - **Profit - making effect**: The proportion of rising stocks increased to 81.2%, and the median weekly return of all A - share stocks rose to 3.1% [5]. - **Trading concentration**: The trading concentration of industries declined. There were 4 industries with the historical percentile of industry turnover rate above 90%, among which the turnover rates of the coal and petroleum and petrochemical industries were above 95% [5]. 3.2 A - share Capital Flow - **Public funds**: The newly - issued scale of equity - oriented funds rose to 12.15 billion, and various public funds reduced their stock positions compared with the previous period [5]. - **Private funds**: In October, the confidence index of private funds decreased slightly, and the positions continued to approach the highest level of the year (as of October 17) [5]. - **Foreign capital**: There was a slight outflow of 120 million US dollars, among which active foreign capital inflowed 16 million US dollars (as of October 22), and the historical percentile of the trading proportion of north - bound funds rose to 38.7% [5]. - **Industrial capital**: The initial public offering (IPO) raised 2.54 billion yuan this period, the private placement scale was 21.151 billion yuan, and the restricted - share lifting scale was 48.76 billion yuan [5]. - **ETF**: Passive funds suddenly turned to net outflow, with a net outflow of 14.7 billion yuan. The passive trading proportion decreased to 6.9% month - on - month, and the premium/discount rate of stock ETFs decreased [5]. - **Margin trading**: The net purchase this period was 21.09 billion yuan, and the trading volume proportion decreased to 11% [5]. - **Retail investors**: Alternative indicators showed that the activity of retail investors increased marginally [5]. 3.3 A - share Industry Allocation - **Foreign capital**: (As of October 22) Non - ferrous metals (+47.3 million US dollars) and electronics (+29.0 million US dollars) had the highest net inflows, while food and beverages (-15.3 million US dollars) and transportation (-13.2 million US dollars) had net outflows [5]. - **Margin trading**: (As of October 23) Electronics (+8.23 billion yuan) and communication (+3.42 billion yuan) had the highest net inflows, while non - ferrous metals (-1.43 billion yuan) had a net outflow [5]. - **ETF**: The passive capital flow behavior of primary industries was concentrated. The non - banking sector (+770 million yuan) had the highest net inflow; among secondary industries, securities and traditional Chinese medicine had net inflows. Power equipment (-4.52 billion yuan) and electronics (-3.24 billion yuan) had the highest net outflows, and among secondary industries, batteries and semiconductors had net outflows. The ETFs with the highest increase this period included securities ETFs and STAR Market 50 ETFs, etc. The 7 - 10 - year China Bond ETF and 0 - 3 - year China Bond ETF had the highest margin trading net purchases; the ChiNext ETF and CSI 300 ETF had the highest net redemptions, and the CSI Overseas Internet ETF and Hang Seng Technology ETF had margin trading net sales [5]. - **Dragon and Tiger List funds**: Machinery, electronics, and power equipment were the top three industries on the Dragon and Tiger List [5]. 3.4 Hong Kong Stocks and Global Capital Flow - **South - bound capital**: The net purchase of south - bound capital per week rose to 17.28 billion yuan, at the 59th percentile since 2022 (MA5) [5]. - **Global capital flow**: This period (as of October 22), the net flow of active/passive funds in developed markets was -6.53 billion/21.88 billion US dollars, and the net flow of active/passive funds in emerging markets was -610 million/-660 million US dollars. From the perspective of foreign capital only, global foreign capital marginally flowed into non - US developed markets this period, with the UK (+1.01 billion US dollars) and France (+550 million US dollars) having the highest inflows, while the US (-132 million US dollars) continued to have an outflow. From the perspective of the overall global flow including domestic capital of each country, the US had the highest inflow, while China and the UK had outflows. North American funds had a large net subscription, and US technology/industrial funds had the highest net subscriptions [5].