Market Performance - The A-share market opened positively in the Year of the Horse, with major indices showing significant gains, including the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to close at 4117.41 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.36% to 14291.57 points [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a strong market sentiment [6] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals, which rose by 5.53%, and Building Materials, which increased by 3.71% [3] - Conversely, sectors such as Media and Computer experienced declines, with the Media sector dropping by 3.20% [3] - Notable concept stocks included Combustible Ice and Cultivated Diamonds, which saw significant gains, while MLOps and AI Corpus concepts faced declines [4][3] Future Outlook - The report indicates a positive outlook for the A-share market, supported by strong performance in oil and gas stocks, chemical sectors, and precious metals [4] - The market is expected to benefit from favorable macroeconomic policies and the upcoming Two Sessions, which historically lead to a high probability of index increases post-Spring Festival [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment for potential investment opportunities [6]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260224 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.87%，收 报 4117.41 点；深证成指涨 1.36%，收报 14291.57 点；创业板指涨 0.99%， 收报 3308.26 点；科创 50 指数跌 0.34%，收报 1465.37 点。总体上，全天个 股涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4003 只个股上涨，仅 1388 只个股下跌， 86 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 22021 亿元，较上个交易日放量 2194 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化 工、有色金属、煤炭等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 5.53%、3.71%、3.45%、3.31%、 3.10%，传媒、计算机、商贸零售、食品饮料、非银金融等行业领跌，跌幅分 别为 3.20%、1.81%、1.46%、0.86%、0.42%。 概念板块涨跌情况： ...

注：上证指数近10年（2016年至2025年）春节前5个交易日涨跌幅情况 随着春节假期临近，A股行情即将迈入最后一周，投资者纷纷聚焦今年能否继续迎来"红包行情"。从历 史数据上看，上证指数近10年节前5个交易日上涨比例达7成，平均涨幅近0.2%。其中，在2021年、 2024年、2023年节前，上证指数涨势较优，而在2022年、2020年、2018年节前则表现不佳。 受节前交易转淡影响，A股市场近期量能数据持续下滑，沪深京三市今日成交额2.16万亿元，继续刷新 年内最低纪录。其中，作为观测市场情绪关键指标的融资余额近日也大幅回落，截至2月5日数据，A股 融资余额目前规模达2.66万亿元，已连续6个交易日出现下降态势，并创1月12日以来近4周新低，期间 累计净卖额达611.9亿元。 双创指数表现较优，55%板块节前获收涨 市场主要指数方面，在近10年节前5个交易日期间，科创50、创业板指表现较优，平均涨幅分别达 2.4%、2.2%，同时以中证500、沪深300为代表的中盘股、大盘股指数表现优于以中证2000、国证2000 为代表的小微盘股。以上涨比例统计（不足10年以实际年份统计），创业板指、深证成指、红利指数 ...

Market Overview - Market trading activity has decreased, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 2.8 trillion CNY, while the proportion of stocks rising has increased to 76.7%[4] - The median weekly return for all A-shares has risen to 2.7%[4] Fund Flows - Financing funds have seen a slight outflow of 68.9 billion CNY, with the proportion of financing transactions decreasing to 9.8%[4] - ETF funds have experienced a significant outflow of 3264.7 billion CNY, primarily due to state-owned enterprises selling ETFs to optimize their capital structure[4] - New issuance of equity mutual funds has increased to 261.2 billion CNY, indicating a rise in public fund activity[4] Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has flowed into A-shares, with a net inflow of 3.9 million USD as of January 21[4] - The proportion of northbound trading has increased to 18.0%, indicating stronger foreign participation in the market[4] Sector Performance - The top sectors for foreign inflows include non-ferrous metals (+27.3 million USD) and computers (+12.8 million USD), while banks (-35.1 million USD) and telecommunications (-20.8 million USD) saw outflows[4] - In terms of financing, electronics (+206.5 billion CNY) and telecommunications (+95.2 billion CNY) were the leading sectors for inflows, while beauty care (-0.2 billion CNY) and construction materials (-0.5 billion CNY) faced outflows[4] Risk Factors - There are potential risks related to data reporting discrepancies and measurement errors from third-party sources[4]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing narrow consolidation with the three major indices showing slight gains, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase after continuous volume increases [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include Construction Materials (up 4.09%), National Defense and Military Industry (up 3.23%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (up 3.07%) [3][4] - Conversely, the sectors with the poorest performance include Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.76%), Banking (down 0.43%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (down 0.42%) [3][4] Concept Indices - Among concept indices, the Domestic Aircraft Carrier concept led with a gain of 3.82%, followed by Combustible Ice (up 3.57%) and Large Aircraft (up 3.04%) [3][4] - On the downside, sectors such as Sci-Tech New Stocks and Photoresists saw declines of 1.09% and 0.93%, respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue receiving support from multiple favorable factors, including the "14th Five-Year" industrial guidance, overseas liquidity easing, and domestic policy support [7] - The upcoming economic stabilization policies are expected to drive market risk appetite higher, suggesting a potential upward trend as the spring market approaches [7] Government Initiatives - A significant government initiative includes the allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, which is projected to stimulate total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index ended its fourteen-day rally, with the index closing at 4082.98 points, down 0.07% [10] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48 points, down 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3302.31 points, down 0.82% [10] - The total market turnover decreased to 28.27 trillion yuan, indicating a slight drop in trading activity [12] Economic Data - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 47.9%, below expectations, indicating a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for December was significantly higher at 54.4%, marking a one-year high, influenced by holiday factors [1] - The ADP employment data for December showed job additions below expectations, reflecting weak labor demand [1] Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,579 billion, an increase of $115 billion, marking a 0.34% rise and a ten-year high [8] - China's gold reserves increased to 7.415 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces, continuing a 14-month trend of gold accumulation by the central bank [8] Monetary Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival, indicating a proactive approach to manage potential funding fluctuations [9] - This operation aligns with the central bank's "moderate easing" stance, aimed at stabilizing bond market expectations and indirectly lowering financing costs for the real economy [9] Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released an implementation plan for "AI + Manufacturing," aiming for significant advancements in AI technology and its application in manufacturing by 2027 [9] - The plan includes the development of 3-5 general large models for deep application in manufacturing, the creation of 100 high-quality industrial data sets, and the promotion of 500 typical application scenarios [9]

Group 1: Index Trends - On January 6th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to close at 4083.67 points with a trading volume of 1175.769 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4% to close at 14022.55 points with a trading volume of 1630.739 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43% with a trading volume of 580.815 billion yuan, opening at 7756.16, closing at 7864.9, with a daily high of 7864.9 and a low of 7755.07 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 2.13% with a trading volume of 571.675 billion yuan, opening at 7663.94, closing at 7814.14, with a daily high of 7814.65 and a low of 7663.66 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.9% with a trading volume of 180.048 billion yuan, opening at 3106.52, closing at 3158.76, with a daily high of 3158.76 and a low of 3106.09 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.9% with a trading volume of 180.048 billion yuan; it opened at 3106.52, closed at 3158.76, with a daily high of 3158.76 and a low of 3106.09 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 111.02 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 162.94 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industry significantly driving the index up [2] - The SSE 300 rose 72.94 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly driving the index up [2] - The SSE 50 rose 59.01 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly driving the index up [2] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 3.62, IM01 was - 59.76, IM02 was - 111.71, and IM03 was - 334.86 [13] - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was 7.39, IC01 was - 25.74, IC02 was - 47.13, and IC03 was - 215.14 [13] - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was 2.31, IF01 was - 7.94, IF02 was - 11.17, and IF03 was - 55.76 [13] - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was 0.34, IH01 was - 0.55, IH02 was 1.4, and IH03 was - 8.09 [13]

Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [2][13] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced, with a narrowing of the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds [2][18] Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Overall market trading activity has continued to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as military, textiles, light industry, retail, and consumer services all above the 80th percentile [3][24] - The volatility of major indices has also increased, with sectors like communication, electric power, electronics, and chemicals remaining above the 80th percentile historically [3][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, although the liquidity indicators for the oil and petrochemical sector remain above the 80th historical percentile [3][36] Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electric power, and computers, while research interest in retail, oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and home appliances has also increased [4][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases in sectors such as real estate, transportation, chemicals, electric power, and machinery [4][21] - The proportion of stocks in the entire A-share market with upward revisions to their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts has increased, while the proportion of stocks with downward revisions has decreased [4][18] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded, while those for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have been adjusted up and down, respectively [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded significantly, with a notable net purchase of A-shares, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military, and automobiles [5][31] - The ratio of total buy and sell amounts in the top 10 active stocks has increased in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and automobiles, while it has decreased in electronics, communication, and electric power [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level since November 2025, with net purchases primarily in military, electric power, and media sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases in electric power, public utilities, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors has increased [6][38] Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with significant increases in sectors such as communication, electric power, and electronics, while reductions were seen in military and consumer services [7][45] - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with large/mid-cap growth and mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with small-cap growth and large-cap value has decreased [7][48] - New equity fund establishment sizes have decreased, with actively managed funds seeing a decline while passive funds have seen an increase [7][50]

- The report highlights that the total margin trading balance reached a record high of 25,552.84 billion yuan as of December 30, 2025, with the financing balance accounting for 25,385.25 billion yuan and the securities lending balance at 167.59 billion yuan [5][13][15] - Over the past 5 days, the electronics sector saw the highest net financing purchase, totaling 78.7 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 74.6 billion yuan, and the defense, machinery, and non-ferrous metals sectors ranked third to fifth [6][23][26] - Financing balance distribution by industry shows that the electronics sector leads with 3,820 billion yuan, followed by power equipment (2,269 billion yuan), non-bank finance (1,853 billion yuan), computers (1,768 billion yuan), and pharmaceuticals (1,624 billion yuan) [19][20][24] - The average daily growth rate of financing balance over the past 20 days was highest in the defense sector at 0.64%, corresponding to a 13.36% increase in the sector index during the same period [21][22][23] - Financing purchase activity, measured by the proportion of financing purchase to transaction volume over the past 5 days, was most active in non-bank finance, electronics, communication, home appliances, and power equipment sectors [6][27][29]

Market Overview - In December, the A-share market showed a recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,959.62 points, up 1.83% from the end of November. The ChiNext Index and CSI 500 Index recorded significant gains [16][17] - The market liquidity decreased in December, influenced by year-end capital recovery and reduced risk appetite among investors. The total amount of A-share lock-up releases increased significantly, leading to net selling by major shareholders [24][27] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly in commercial aerospace, terahertz technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, saw active trading in December. The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological innovation, which is expected to sustain investor interest in these areas [4][5] - Among the major sectors, telecommunications, defense, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials led the gains, with telecommunications achieving the highest increase of 14.35% [17][21] Policy Analysis - The central government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply. This is anticipated to stimulate consumption and investment in related sectors [49][50] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for innovation-driven growth and the development of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and renewable energy sectors [50][51] Valuation Levels - As of December 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the ChiNext Index is at a historical high, positioned at the 90.74th percentile. Most major indices saw an increase in their historical valuation percentiles compared to the previous month [43][44] - In terms of industry valuation, 21 sectors experienced an increase in valuation levels, with retail, telecommunications, electronics, and computing exceeding the 50th percentile of their historical P/E ratios [44][48]