证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 17 日 投资要点 分析师：储杨阳 执业编号：S0300525060002 电话： 邮箱：chuyangyang@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 粤开市场日报-20251117 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.46%，收报 3972.03 点；深证成指跌 0.11%，收报 13202.00 点；科创 50 跌 0.53%，收报 1354.04 点；创业板指跌 0.20%，收报 3105.20 点。总体上，全天个股涨跌家 数基本持平，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2582 只个股上涨，2724 只个股下跌， 138 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 19108 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 473 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，计算机、国防军工、煤炭、通 信、房地产等行业涨幅靠前，涨幅分别为 1.67%、1.59%、1.32%、1.10%、1.00%， 医药生物、银行、非银金融、建筑材料、家用电器等 ...

Market Overview - On November 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.03%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.19% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3,379 stocks increased, accounting for 62.19%, while 1,905 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital experienced a net outflow of 8.638 billion yuan, marking five consecutive trading days of net outflows [1] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 2.915 billion yuan, the STAR Market had a net outflow of 2.056 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 constituents experienced a net outflow of 2.576 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 28 first-level industries classified by Shenwan, 20 industries saw an increase, with the leading sectors being Electric Equipment and Coal, which rose by 3.40% and 1.39%, respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Computer and Non-Bank Financials, which fell by 0.97% and 0.49%, respectively [1] Industry Capital Inflow and Outflow - Eleven industries had net capital inflows, with Electric Equipment leading at a net inflow of 14.608 billion yuan and a daily increase of 3.40% [1] - The Coal industry followed with a daily increase of 1.39% and a net inflow of 1.092 billion yuan [1] - Twenty industries experienced net capital outflows, with the Computer industry leading at a net outflow of 6.363 billion yuan and a daily decline of 0.97% [1] - The Electronics sector had a net outflow of 4.616 billion yuan and a daily decrease of 0.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2,127 stocks had net capital inflows, with 777 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan, and 105 stocks with inflows over 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Sungrow Power Supply, which rose by 7.11% with a net inflow of 1.501 billion yuan [2] - Other notable inflows included TBEA and CATL, with net inflows of 1.199 billion yuan and 977 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, 111 stocks had net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Seres, Fulongma, and BYD, amounting to 1.231 billion yuan, 1.053 billion yuan, and 722 million yuan, respectively [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on October 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4016.33 points, up 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13691.38 points, up 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index at 3324.27 points, up 2.93% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 22,909.31 billion yuan, an increase of 1,254.03 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The main capital in the A-share market saw a net outflow of 6.18 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 63.17 billion yuan and a closing net inflow of 32.39 billion yuan [2][3] - The CSI 300 index recorded a net inflow of 40.1 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net inflow of 16.62 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experienced a net outflow of 15.78 billion yuan [4][5] Sector Performance - The power equipment sector led the net inflow of funds with 259.1 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals with 177.81 billion yuan, and non-bank financials with 125.89 billion yuan [6][7] - The banking sector faced the largest net outflow, totaling 99.21 billion yuan, followed by semiconductor sector with 36.67 billion yuan, and food and beverage sector with 31.42 billion yuan [7] Stock Highlights - The stock "Sunshine Power" saw the highest net inflow of institutional funds at 1,055.11 million yuan, with a daily increase of 15.44% [10][11] - Other notable stocks with significant institutional net buying include "Keda Guokong" and "JinkoSolar" [10][11] Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings indicate a bullish outlook on stocks such as "Jiuli Special Materials" with a target price of 32.30 yuan, representing a potential upside of 26.62% [12] - Other stocks receiving attention include "Sobot" and "Yinlong Co." with target prices indicating significant upside potential [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, while trading volume and value have increased compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance Summary - **Top Performing Industries**: - **Electric Equipment**: Increased by 2.34% with a transaction amount of 132.29 billion, led by Tongguan Copper Foil which rose by 20.01% [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Increased by 1.98% with a transaction amount of 57.40 billion, led by Zhongtung High-tech which rose by 10.00% [1] - **Non-bank Financials**: Increased by 0.97% with a transaction amount of 26.46 billion, led by State Grid Yingda which rose by 9.95% [1] - **Bottom Performing Industries**: - **Beauty and Personal Care**: Decreased by 1.05% with a transaction amount of 2.76 billion, led by Beijia Clean which fell by 6.79% [2] - **Comprehensive**: Decreased by 0.77% with a transaction amount of 0.29 billion, led by Zhangzhou Development which fell by 7.88% [2] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biology**: Decreased by 0.77% with a transaction amount of 48.59 billion, led by Sino Medical which fell by 20.01% [2]

Investment Focus - The main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period are achieving significant progress in high-quality development and substantial improvement in technological self-reliance [1][7] - Macro policy will focus on two main directions: building a modern industrial system through technological innovation and driving long-term growth through domestic-demand upgrading [1][7] Technological Innovation - Emphasis on enhancing self-sufficiency in key technologies and accelerating the development of globally competitive emerging pillar industries [2][8] - Priority areas include new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, as well as future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications [2][8] - The "AI+" initiative will lead in accelerating the application of new productivity forms and business models, enhancing the national innovation system's efficiency [2][8] Domestic Demand - Policy priorities are shifting from aggregate stimulus to endogenous growth, with a focus on launching a "boost consumption" program to generate new demand [2][9] - Improving the social safety net aims to release consumption potential, including measures for livelihood support, employment stabilization, social welfare enhancement, and family support [2][9] - New growth drivers such as green consumption, the silver economy, and the childcare economy will be cultivated to enhance domestic circulation's momentum and resilience [2][9] Real Estate Sector - The meeting called for promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, regulating local governments' economic promotion behaviors, and expanding effective investment [2][10] - The overall strategy aims to stabilize the property market and mitigate cut-throat competition, ensuring macro stability under a dual-engine structure powered by technology and domestic demand [2][10] Market Outlook - After recent corrections, market lows are beginning to offer attractive entry opportunities, with a modest rebound in Chinese equities under policy boosts [3][11] - The performance gap between the CSI 300 and CSI 500 has narrowed, indicating upside potential for large caps, particularly in consumption and property sectors benefiting from domestic-demand policies [3][12] - Investors may also consider increasing exposure to the non-bank financial sector to capture opportunities from subsequent market expansion [3][12] - For technology stocks, a secondary pullback may present a re-entry opportunity, especially for Hong Kong tech stocks that have corrected significantly since October [3][12]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry experienced the highest net inflow of capital today, amounting to 2.59% increase with a net capital flow of 2.078 billion yuan [1] - The non-banking financial sector faced the largest net outflow of capital, decreasing by 1.14% with a net capital flow of -11.405 billion yuan [2] Industry Summary - **Defense and Military**: - Trading volume: 2.128 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +34.67% - Turnover rate: 2.40% - Price change: +2.59% - Net capital inflow: 2.078 billion yuan [1] - **Non-Banking Financial**: - Trading volume: 6.285 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -37.11% - Turnover rate: 1.51% - Price change: -1.14% - Net capital outflow: -11.405 billion yuan [2] - **Other Notable Industries**: - **Nonferrous Metals**: - Net capital inflow: 1.984 billion yuan, price change: +3.22% [1] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology**: - Net capital inflow: 0.984 billion yuan, price change: +1.40% [1] - **Consumer Goods**: - Net capital outflow in various sectors including beauty care, building materials, and retail [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry experienced a significant increase in stock prices, with a rise of 2.59% on September 30, 2023, driven by substantial net inflows of capital [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% on September 30, 2023, with 19 out of 28 sectors showing gains, particularly in non-ferrous metals and defense industries, which increased by 3.22% and 2.59% respectively [1]. - The defense industry saw a net inflow of 20.78 billion yuan, making it the top sector for capital inflow, while the non-bank financial sector led in capital outflow with 114.05 billion yuan [1]. Capital Flow Analysis - In the defense industry, 138 stocks were tracked, with 119 stocks rising and 4 hitting the daily limit up. The top net inflow stocks included AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company with 902 million yuan, followed by Aerospace Rainbow and Guorui Technology with 226 million yuan and 176 million yuan respectively [2]. - The top stocks experiencing capital outflow included China Shipbuilding Industry with a net outflow of 550 million yuan, followed by Guangwei Composites and Guangqi Technology with outflows of 44 million yuan and 43 million yuan respectively [3]. Sector Highlights - The defense industry had a total of 80 stocks with net inflows, with 10 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [2]. - The defense industry also had notable stocks with significant capital outflows, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [3].

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a decline, with the technology sector showing significant differentiation, as the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 0.72% to 1380.35 points while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.99% to 6271.22 points [1][2] - The market's performance reflected a typical "good news priced in" adjustment, indicating investor concerns about the economic fundamentals and policy effectiveness [1] Major Index Performance - In the A-share market, all three major indices fell over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64% to 3095.85 points [2] - The total market turnover reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 763.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with a net outflow of 760.44 billion yuan from main funds [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market saw active performance in technology hardware and tourism sectors, driven by expectations of demand for computing power, with the CPO index rising by 2.51% [3] - The semiconductor equipment index increased by 1.89%, supported by domestic substitution logic and policy backing [3] - In the Hong Kong market, the semiconductor and online education sectors showed resilience, with the online education index surging by 11.61% due to improved policy expectations [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The A-share market's resource and financial sectors faced significant declines, with the non-ferrous metals sector dropping by 3.56% and the non-bank financial sector down by 2.81% [4] - Concerns over cash flow in the real estate sector and weak economic data pressured the market sentiment [4] - In the Hong Kong market, traditional industries and property stocks experienced substantial adjustments, with the local brokerage index falling by 5.65% [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market displayed a "technology resilience, cyclical pressure" characteristic, suggesting a focus on the flow of funds post-Fed rate cuts and domestic policy responses [5] - For A-shares, it is recommended to focus on "technology autonomy + consumer healthcare" dual lines, particularly in semiconductor equipment and CPO sectors [5] - In the Hong Kong market, a defensive strategy focusing on "technology leaders + policy beneficiaries" is advised, especially in the semiconductor and innovative drug sectors [6]

Core Insights - The electronic industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 21.723 billion yuan, with a price increase of 5.96% and a turnover rate of 4.40% [1] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -3.975 billion yuan, with a price increase of only 0.25% and a turnover rate of 2.28% [1] Industry Summary - **Electronic**: - Trading volume: 12.233 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +40.98% - Turnover rate: 4.40% - Price change: +5.96% - Net inflow: 21.723 billion yuan [1] - **Computer**: - Trading volume: 8.431 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +39.24% - Turnover rate: 4.73% - Price change: +3.71% - Net inflow: 8.479 billion yuan [1] - **Communication**: - Trading volume: 6.068 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +17.90% - Turnover rate: 3.46% - Price change: +7.39% - Net inflow: 7.222 billion yuan [1] - **Pharmaceutical and Biological**: - Trading volume: 6.189 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +31.48% - Turnover rate: 2.28% - Price change: +0.25% - Net outflow: -3.975 billion yuan [1] - **Automobile**: - Trading volume: 7.220 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -6.91% - Turnover rate: 3.25% - Price change: +1.37% - Net outflow: -1.508 billion yuan [1] - **Media**: - Trading volume: 5.627 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.19% - Turnover rate: 3.84% - Price change: +0.48% - Net outflow: -2.738 billion yuan [1]

Market Performance - The major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3813.56, down 1.16% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.00, down 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% to 2899.37 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.36 trillion, a decrease of 510.9 billion from the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+1.64%), Communication (+1.61%), and Electric Equipment (+1.44%) [3] - The sectors that underperformed were Defense Industry (-5.83%), Non-Bank Financials (-3.05%), and Computer (-2.71%) [3] - Concept indices such as Fentanyl (+0.65%) and BC Battery (+0.39%) performed well, while sectors like Military Restructuring (-7.44%) and Domestic Aircraft Carrier (-5.45%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the TMT sector, which is anticipated to maintain high growth due to the dual drivers of AI trends and domestic substitution [6] - The report highlights that the third batch of "national subsidies" has been issued, with the fourth batch expected in October, indicating a potential acceleration in economic recovery [6] - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" trends, including dividend stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer electronics [6] News and Developments - In August 2025, A-share new accounts reached 2.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 165%, significantly surpassing the previous year's levels [5] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in August reached 1.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [5]