Core Viewpoint - The current competition in the food delivery market is intense, with major players like Meituan and Taobao Shanguo achieving significant order volumes, indicating a resurgence in the sector [1][46]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is experiencing a surge, with Meituan announcing over 120 million orders in a single day and Taobao Shanguo surpassing 80 million orders [1]. - The situation mirrors the community group buying boom of 2020, with both similarities and differences in operational models and subsidy strategies [2][3]. - The essence of the competition revolves around four key topics: the effectiveness of subsidies, the viability of food delivery business models, the areas of operational efficiency, and the significance of market penetration rates [5]. Group 2: Business Models - The food delivery sector is primarily divided into restaurant delivery and retail delivery, with the former being more established and profitable [6][21]. - Restaurant delivery has a higher gross margin (60%-80%) compared to retail delivery, which struggles with lower margins and higher inventory costs [25][26]. - The challenges faced by retail delivery include the difficulty in controlling product quality and costs, making it less profitable than restaurant delivery [30][31]. Group 3: Competition and Efficiency - The current food delivery competition is fundamentally a battle in restaurant delivery, while retail delivery remains an unresolved question in terms of business model viability [46][71]. - The success of food delivery platforms is not solely dependent on subsidies; rather, it hinges on operational efficiency and the ability to innovate beyond existing frameworks [50][72]. - The market dynamics suggest that achieving a market share of over 30% for competitors is essential for a balanced competitive landscape, with Meituan's share needing to drop below 60% for effective competition [64][69]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing subsidy wars in the food delivery sector are primarily focused on restaurant delivery, with the potential for retail delivery to disrupt the market remaining uncertain [78][79]. - Companies like Taobao Shanguo and JD's food delivery service must identify structural issues and provide innovative solutions to succeed in the competitive landscape [80][81]. - The future of the food delivery market will depend on whether new entrants can uncover and address these structural challenges effectively [88][99].

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to deliver significant returns, with business volume and revenue growth around 20% and operating profits increasing substantially [3][4] - As competition stabilizes, operating leverage will lead to greater growth in operating profits, with companies like Manbang Group and Meituan projected to see substantial profit increases in 2024 [4][5] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of approximately 30% for leading companies in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - Revenue growth and declining expense ratios are key drivers for profit growth, with companies like Manbang Group benefiting from rapid revenue increases and improved monetization rates [14][17] - The report highlights that the faster the revenue growth and the quicker the expense ratio declines, the more significant the profit growth potential [16] High Growth in Leading Companies - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable [19][23] - The operating profit growth rates for these companies are significantly higher than their gross profit growth rates, indicating effective cost management [23] Operating Leverage - The report notes that the increase in operating profit growth is due to a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, showcasing the effect of operating leverage [28][31] - As leading companies solidify their market positions, their expense ratios are expected to stabilize, further enhancing profit margins [28][46] Revenue and Market Penetration - The revenue growth for leading companies is primarily driven by increases in business volume, with many companies outpacing industry growth rates [39][41] - The rising market penetration rates in various segments, such as ride-hailing and digital freight, are contributing to revenue growth exceeding overall market growth [44] Monetization Rates - Manbang Group's monetization rate is on the rise, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth compared to competitors whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to achieve revenue growth of around 20%, with operating profits increasing significantly. Companies like Manbang Group and Meituan are projected to have a PE ratio below 20 times in 2025, making them attractive investments [3] - As the competitive landscape stabilizes, stable sales, management, and R&D expenses are expected to lead to substantial growth in operating profits. Companies like Manbang Group, Meituan, and SF Express are anticipated to see their operating profits double in 2024, with continued rapid growth thereafter [4] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of around 30% for companies like Manbang Group, Meituan, and SF Express in 2024. Manbang Group's monetization rate is expected to increase, leading to a gross profit growth rate of 42% in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - The growth in profits is driven by revenue growth, market expansion, and decreasing expense ratios. Companies with faster revenue growth and declining expense ratios are likely to see quicker profit growth, particularly in the cross-city digital freight sector, where Manbang Group is expected to experience high profit growth [14][16][17] High Growth in Express Delivery, Ride-Hailing, and International Air Transport - In early 2025, most transportation modes are experiencing low growth in volume, while international air transport, express delivery, and ride-hailing are seeing faster growth [11] Head Companies' Profit Growth - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable. The gross profits of these companies are also expected to grow, although at a slower rate than operating profits [23] Operating Leverage - The increase in operating profit growth is attributed to a decline in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which enhances operating profit margins. As leading companies solidify their positions, these expenses are expected to stabilize [28][31] Revenue Growth Driven by Business Volume - The revenue growth of leading companies is primarily driven by an increase in business volume, with many companies expected to outpace industry growth rates in 2024 [39][41] Market Penetration Rate Increase - The market penetration rates for various sectors are on the rise, leading to revenue growth that exceeds overall market growth. This trend is particularly evident in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery sectors [44] Monetization Rate - Manbang Group's monetization rate is significantly increasing, contributing to faster revenue growth compared to competitors like Uber and Didi Chuxing, whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]