Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that short-term competition is putting pressure on profits, but there is optimism for long-term profitability recovery due to efficiency advantages [5]. - Meituan's core local business revenue for Q2 2025 was 653.5 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 3.3% [1]. - New business revenue reached 264.9 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q2 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 918.4 billion yuan, which was 2.0% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations. EBIT was 2.3 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 97.2%. Adjusted net profit was approximately 14.9 billion yuan, also below expectations by 84.8% [1]. Core Local Business - The core local business faced competitive pressures, resulting in lower-than-expected revenue and profit. Revenue was 653.5 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue at 236.6 billion yuan, commission revenue at 249.5 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue at 135.5 billion yuan. Operating profit was 37.2 billion yuan, which was below expectations by 69.0% [1]. Food Delivery - The company expanded its user base and improved core user engagement and transaction frequency. Collaborations with restaurant merchants led to innovations that benefited both small and chain restaurants. The Meituan Flash Purchase service saw strong growth in order volume and total transaction value [2]. In-store and Travel - Meituan is expanding into new categories and innovating supply models while penetrating lower-tier markets. The company is enhancing digital transformation and standardization for merchants, providing integrated solutions to improve operational efficiency [3]. New Business - New business revenue was 264.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, which was better than expectations. The company is optimizing its grocery retail strategy and expanding its overseas presence with Keeta [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term competition may impact profit performance, Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews provide a solid competitive moat. Future profitability in the core local business is expected to improve, and new businesses are anticipated to continue narrowing losses. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3700 billion, 4356 billion, and 4939 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 9 billion, 216 billion, and 465 billion yuan [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the growth trend in the treatment of hemorrhoids products and the potential for expanding into wet wipes business, with a focus on the company's strong performance in the first half of 2025 [5][6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.949 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, and a net profit of 343 million yuan, up 10.04% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is extending its product line into the field of anal health, with rapid growth in wet wipes, leveraging its established brand recognition and user base [7] Group 2 - The report discusses the strategic focus on financial technology and the acceleration of AI model applications by the company, which reported a revenue of 1.208 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 48.55% year-on-year [8][9] - The company is narrowing its business focus to financial technology, reducing non-financial IT business, while maintaining investment in core technology and product areas [9][10] - The new generation of core products is being developed to enhance self-operated technology services, with significant investments in AI [11][12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the secondary market is under pressure, with new infrastructure turnover rates leading the market, as evidenced by the issuance of 14 public REITs in 2025, a decrease from the previous year [13][14] - The REITs index has faced declines, with the market's total value dropping to 215.894 billion yuan, while the trading activity has increased slightly [14][15] - New infrastructure sectors are showing higher turnover rates, particularly in park infrastructure, which is leading in transaction volume [15] Group 4 - The report notes that competition in the food delivery sector is intensifying, leading to significant pressure on profits, with the company reporting a revenue of 91.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [18][19] - The core local business revenue grew by 8% to 65.3 billion yuan, but operating profits fell sharply due to increased delivery subsidies and marketing expenses [19][20] - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth potential in instant delivery and overseas expansion despite short-term profit pressures [21][22] Group 5 - The report highlights the company's investments in digital and cultural sectors, with a stable revenue of 1.179 billion yuan in H1 2025, and a focus on expanding its digital technology and cultural offerings [23][24] - The online gaming segment showed a revenue increase of 9% to 706 million yuan, while the digital marketing services revenue grew by 14% [24][25] - The company is actively investing in various innovative business areas, including digital sports and arts, to enhance its market presence [25][26] Group 6 - The report indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 13.38 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, with a significant rise in overseas sales [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its IP matrix and targeting a broader age demographic, with a notable increase in sales from online channels [33][34] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 34.18 billion yuan, 47.16 billion yuan, and 57.25 billion yuan respectively [36]

Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 91.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12% but below market expectations, with significant declines in operating and net profits due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector and losses from overseas expansion [1] Group 1: Core Local Business - Core local business revenue grew by 8% year-over-year to 65.3 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue growth lagging behind the increase in instant delivery transaction volume due to increased delivery subsidies [2] - Operating profit for the core local business fell by 76% year-over-year to 3.7 billion yuan, significantly below the market expectation of 12 billion yuan, primarily due to declining gross margins and increased user incentives and marketing expenses [2] - The company plans to continue strategic investments in Q3 2025, which may pressure profit metrics, while maintaining a long-term profit assumption of 1 yuan per order and a profit margin of approximately 3% for 2025 [2] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The food delivery business saw a steady growth with a 10% year-over-year increase in order volume, driven by various models enhancing food supply and user engagement [3] - The Meituan Flash Purchase business experienced strong growth in order volume and transaction value, with significant increases in high-ticket item sales during the "618" shopping festival [3] - The in-store travel and accommodation business performed well, with order volume growing over 40% year-over-year and revenue increasing by 15% [3] Group 3: New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue grew by 23% year-over-year to 26.5 billion yuan, driven by retail and overseas business growth, although operating losses expanded to 1.9 billion yuan due to increased costs in overseas operations [4] - Keeta maintained strong growth in order volume and gross transaction value, solidifying its leading position in Hong Kong and expanding into 20 cities in Saudi Arabia and launching services in Qatar [4] - The company remains optimistic about Keeta's long-term growth potential, aiming for a gross merchandise value of 100 billion USD within 10 years [4] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is optimistic about its core barriers in instant delivery and growth opportunities from overseas expansion, but has revised down its profit forecasts due to irrational competition and increased short-term investments [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 370.2 billion, 417.9 billion, and 475.5 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP net profit forecasts of 5 billion, 32.3 billion, and 48.8 billion yuan respectively [5] - The company has set a target market value of 735.1 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 120 yuan per share [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that intensified competition in the food delivery sector has pressured profits, while the company is expected to release long-term value [2][6] - Meituan's Q2 2025 revenue reached 91.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% [11] - The report anticipates that the company's core local business will continue to face challenges due to increased competition and overseas expansion losses [10][18] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q2 2025, Meituan achieved a revenue of 91.8 billion RMB, with operating profit of 200 million RMB (YoY -98%, QoQ -98%) and net profit of 400 million RMB (YoY -97%, QoQ -96%) [11] - Non-GAAP EBITDA was 2.8 billion RMB (YoY -81%, QoQ -77%), and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.5 billion RMB (YoY -89%, QoQ -86%) [11] Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: Q2 2025 saw a steady growth in food delivery, with estimated order volume increasing by 10% YoY. The company is enhancing supply through various models to boost user engagement [7] - **Flash Purchase Business**: Strong growth in order volume and transaction value was noted, with significant increases during promotional periods. The establishment of over 50,000 flash warehouses supports local store digital transformation [7] - **In-store and Travel Business**: This segment performed well, with order volume growing over 40% YoY and revenue increasing by 15% YoY [7] Financial Forecasts - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 370.2 billion RMB, 417.9 billion RMB, and 475.5 billion RMB respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of 5 billion RMB, -5.02 billion RMB, and 26.2 billion RMB [10][18] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 735.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 120 RMB per share [10][19]

Core Financial Performance - Meituan reported Q2 2025 revenue of 91.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [1] - Net profit for Q2 2025 was 365.3 million yuan, down from 11.4 billion yuan in the same period of 2024; adjusted net profit was 1.5 billion yuan, compared to 13.6 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Core Local Business - Revenue from Meituan's core local business segment grew by 7.7% year-on-year to 65.3 billion yuan [2] - Operating profit for this segment decreased by 75.6% year-on-year to 3.7 billion yuan, with an operating margin decline of 19.4 percentage points to 5.7% [2] New Business Segment - Revenue from Meituan's new business segment increased by 22.8% year-on-year to 26.5 billion yuan [2] - Operating loss for this segment widened by 43.1% year-on-year to 1.9 billion yuan, although the operating loss margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 7.1% [2] Other Income - Other net income for Q2 2025 was 808 million yuan, compared to 630.6 million yuan in the same period of 2024; this change was primarily due to a shift from foreign exchange losses to gains, partially offset by a decrease in fair value changes and income from investment products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between hotels and food delivery services highlights the growing demand for food delivery options among hotel guests, driven by the expanding food delivery market in China [9][10][12]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The food delivery market in China is projected to reach 1.5 trillion RMB by 2024, a 129% increase from 653.5 billion RMB in 2019, with a daily order volume of approximately 46 million [9]. - The penetration rate of food delivery in the overall restaurant industry has risen to 26%, with food delivery users reaching 592 million, accounting for 53% of internet users in China [9]. - The hotel industry is adapting to this trend, with an increasing number of guests expecting the freedom to order food delivery [10][12]. Group 2: Hotel Industry Dynamics - By the end of 2024, the number of hotel establishments in China is expected to reach 348,700, with a total of 17.64 million rooms, surpassing the peak levels of 2018-2019 [17]. - The number of mid-range hotels has increased from 31,000 in 2019 to 51,000 in 2024, a growth of approximately 64%, capturing nearly 15% of the national hotel market share [18]. - The competitive landscape for mid-range hotels has intensified, with the RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for mid-range hotels in 2024 declining by about 10% compared to 2019 [19]. Group 3: Delivery Methods and Challenges - Various delivery methods are employed in hotels, including delivery by external couriers, hotel staff, robots, or storage in delivery cabinets for guests to pick up [26]. - The increasing volume of food deliveries can lead to delays, prompting hotels to develop contingency plans to manage guest expectations [28]. - The integration of robots for food delivery in hotels is becoming common, with companies like Yunji Technology reporting that hotel scenarios contributed 70.1% to 83% of their revenue from 2022 to 2024 [25]. Group 4: Guest Expectations and Service Quality - Guests increasingly view food delivery as a standard service in hotels, leading to dissatisfaction when delivery is not facilitated by the hotel [31]. - The perception of service quality varies, with some guests expecting high-end hotels to provide seamless food delivery, while others express frustration over the lack of such services [38]. - The hotel industry is urged to understand their target customer profiles and adapt their services, including food delivery, to enhance guest experiences [39].

Core Viewpoint - The current competition in the food delivery market is intense, with major players like Meituan and Taobao Shanguo achieving significant order volumes, indicating a resurgence in the sector [1][46]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is experiencing a surge, with Meituan announcing over 120 million orders in a single day and Taobao Shanguo surpassing 80 million orders [1]. - The situation mirrors the community group buying boom of 2020, with both similarities and differences in operational models and subsidy strategies [2][3]. - The essence of the competition revolves around four key topics: the effectiveness of subsidies, the viability of food delivery business models, the areas of operational efficiency, and the significance of market penetration rates [5]. Group 2: Business Models - The food delivery sector is primarily divided into restaurant delivery and retail delivery, with the former being more established and profitable [6][21]. - Restaurant delivery has a higher gross margin (60%-80%) compared to retail delivery, which struggles with lower margins and higher inventory costs [25][26]. - The challenges faced by retail delivery include the difficulty in controlling product quality and costs, making it less profitable than restaurant delivery [30][31]. Group 3: Competition and Efficiency - The current food delivery competition is fundamentally a battle in restaurant delivery, while retail delivery remains an unresolved question in terms of business model viability [46][71]. - The success of food delivery platforms is not solely dependent on subsidies; rather, it hinges on operational efficiency and the ability to innovate beyond existing frameworks [50][72]. - The market dynamics suggest that achieving a market share of over 30% for competitors is essential for a balanced competitive landscape, with Meituan's share needing to drop below 60% for effective competition [64][69]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing subsidy wars in the food delivery sector are primarily focused on restaurant delivery, with the potential for retail delivery to disrupt the market remaining uncertain [78][79]. - Companies like Taobao Shanguo and JD's food delivery service must identify structural issues and provide innovative solutions to succeed in the competitive landscape [80][81]. - The future of the food delivery market will depend on whether new entrants can uncover and address these structural challenges effectively [88][99].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the emergence of a new growth narrative in China's economy driven by the rapid development of AI technology and the resilient recovery of the private sector [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has introduced a "Chinese Prominent 10" portfolio, comprising ten major private listed companies in China, which has sparked discussions about the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2] - The total market capitalization of the "Chinese Prominent 10" reached approximately 11.46 trillion yuan as of June 17, 2025, indicating significant market presence [4][6] Group 2 - The portfolio includes companies from various sectors such as technology, consumer goods, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting the direction of China's economic transformation and upgrading [3] - Key players in the technology sector include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, and NetEase, while the consumer sector features Meituan, Midea, and Anta [3][6] - The report indicates that the compound annual growth rate of earnings for this portfolio is expected to reach 13% over the next two years, with an attractive current price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [2][8] Group 3 - Since the end of 2020, private enterprises in China have faced significant market challenges, with a cumulative market value loss of nearly 4 trillion USD, but they are gradually regaining market vitality [3][10] - The report emphasizes that the "Chinese Prominent 10" has the potential to enhance market concentration and change investor perceptions of Chinese assets, similar to the "Seven Sisters" in the US market [7][13] - The policy environment for private enterprises has improved, with increased support from the government, which is expected to reduce policy risk premiums and boost market confidence [10][11] Group 4 - The report predicts that China's GDP growth rate will reach around 5.5% in 2025, driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI, which could contribute an additional 2.5% annual growth to earnings per share for listed companies [11][12] - Private enterprises are increasingly expanding into overseas markets, with significant growth in imports and exports, indicating their role as pioneers in China's "going global" strategy [12] - The concentration of market capitalization among leading private enterprises is expected to strengthen, with China's market showing significant potential for increased concentration compared to the US [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The core local business of Meituan has shown excellent profit release, with a revenue of 866 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The adjusted net profit reached 109 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, up 3 percentage points [1][9] - The company is expected to increase subsidies starting Q2 2025 to maintain its competitive edge amid rising competition, particularly in the food delivery segment [2][19] - The flash purchase business has seen a 30% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a historical high in profit margins, and the company plans to enhance subsidies to expand market reach [3][22] - The in-store business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a 33% increase in GTV year-on-year [4][23] - New business segments, particularly overseas food delivery, are actively expanding, with a 19% increase in revenue year-on-year, although operating losses have also increased [27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved a revenue of 866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The core local business generated 643 billion yuan in revenue, also up 18% year-on-year. The operating profit for the core local business was 135 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 21% [1][9][17] Business Segments - The food delivery segment saw a 10% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 14%. The average order value (AOV) decline has continued to narrow [2][19] - The flash purchase segment's revenue grew approximately 33%, with operating profit reaching 800 million yuan [3][22] - The in-store business's revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities [4][23] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook, expecting adjusted net profits of 447 billion yuan, 587 billion yuan, and 718 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][29] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to remain challenging, but Meituan's operational capabilities and compliance improvements are expected to support sustainable growth [7][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan's total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.3% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 6.2% [4] - Adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 12.6% [4] - Core local business revenue was 64.3 billion yuan, also up 18% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.5% [4] - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% year-over-year increase, also above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.4% [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses have improved user stickiness and purchase frequency through refined operations [5] - The food delivery segment has introduced differentiated products to meet diverse consumer needs and has implemented measures to enhance food safety [5] - Flash purchase has seen significant growth across various consumer categories, with transaction volume increasing nearly threefold in recent months [5] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having entered the Brazilian market with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [7] Long-term Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing its "extreme execution" in retail exploration [7]