Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) is recognized as a leading local business platform in China, with solid long-term barriers and a focus on exploring new business increments, leading to an "overweight" rating by Caitong Securities [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Meituan operates in key sectors including food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively developing new businesses such as Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailu, as well as expanding into overseas markets [2] - The macroeconomic environment is identified as the largest beta factor, with the service industry expected to grow faster than retail goods, enhancing the platform's growth potential and resilience [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The overseas expansion of the food delivery business has shown positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October this year and significant quarter-on-quarter growth in user engagement metrics expected by Q3 2025 [3] - The internationalization strategy, although initiated later, is anticipated to significantly broaden the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the company, creating structural flexibility for future profit growth [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - Caitong Securities forecasts Meituan's revenue to reach 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) is recognized as a leading local business platform in China, with solid long-term barriers despite short-term competitive disturbances, focusing on exploring new business increments [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Meituan operates in key sectors including food delivery, instant retail, and in-store travel services, while actively developing new businesses such as Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailu [1] - The macroeconomic environment serves as the largest beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail goods, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] - The increasing online penetration rate supports the stability of the food delivery segment, while the rapid penetration of in-store and instant retail services contributes to high growth [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The food delivery business is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, achieving positive progress in regions such as Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations already profitable as of October this year [2] - The quarterly user engagement (UE) metrics for Q3 2025 show significant growth, and the company plans to continue expanding into the Middle East and Latin America [2] - Although Meituan's internationalization strategy started later, its long-term strategic perspective is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2]

Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local commerce platform in China, focusing on food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively exploring new business opportunities and expanding into overseas markets [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is a significant beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, core local commerce revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, primarily due to increased subsidies leading to a significant decline in delivery service revenue [2] - The operating loss for core local commerce in Q3 2025 was 14.1 billion yuan, with expectations of continued losses in Q4 2025, although the loss margin is anticipated to narrow sequentially [2] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's core advantage lies in its long-term business barriers rather than short-term subsidy investments, with significant operational efficiency in its food delivery business [2] - As industry competition becomes more rational, Meituan is expected to enter a profit recovery phase following a reduction in subsidies [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, achieving positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October 2025 [2] - The international strategy, although initiated later, is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [2] - Meituan is positioned as a leading player in local commerce with solid long-term barriers, and despite short-term competitive disturbances, the long-term value remains unchanged, leading to an "overweight" rating [2]

近来，人工智能的快速发展，给平台经济带来了新的变化，也引发了对其健康发展的思考。截至今年6 月份，腾讯、阿里、抖音、百度等平台企业用户已超过10亿人，我国移动互联网人均单日使用时长和次 数分别提升至7.97小时和117.9次，平台经济早已是连接商户与消费者的关键纽带。《中共中央关于制定 国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出，完善监管，推动平台经济创新和健康发展。 如何更有效地让平台经济运行在科学健康的轨道上，成为题中应有之义。 种种因素表明，推动平台经济创新和健康发展，对促进经济发展有着非常重要的意义，但必须坚持发展 和规范并重。要在明确规则、划清底线的基础上，既注重监管，又不忽视企业本身的商业模式创新，建 章立制加以规范。 从监管层面来看，要加强对平台经济常态化监管，提升数据安全治理监管能力。数据是平台经济的关键 生产要素，要加快建立数据产权归属认定、市场交易、权益分配、利益保护机制，促进数据合规高效便 捷使用，充分发挥我国海量数据和应用场景优势。增强数据安全治理执法，优化数据安全治理惩处机 制，严惩重点领域数据违法犯罪行为，为数据安全治理营造良好环境。组建跨部门的专业执法队伍，充 实市场监管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition in the food delivery market has led to significant financial losses for major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, with aggressive subsidy strategies impacting profitability and market dynamics [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Spring 2024, JD entered the food delivery sector, prompting Alibaba's Taobao to follow suit, leading to a fierce competition that forced all players to increase spending [1]. - By Summer, the market saw unprecedented subsidy levels, with consumers benefiting from numerous promotions, while businesses struggled with the financial implications of these strategies [3]. - The competition has resulted in a significant increase in marketing expenses for all three major companies, with Meituan's spending rising from 18 billion to 34.3 billion, and Alibaba's from 32.5 billion to 66.5 billion year-on-year [3][11]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Meituan reported a core local business operating loss of 14.1 billion in Q3, with expectations of continued losses into Q4, indicating a challenging financial landscape [5]. - Alibaba's CFO indicated that the company would tighten its spending on flash purchase business after a peak in Q3, suggesting a potential shift in strategy to mitigate losses [5][9]. - All three companies reported significant losses in Q3, with Meituan losing 16 billion, while Alibaba and JD also faced substantial financial challenges, leading to a bleak outlook for the industry [15][17]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Meituan's market share remains strong, particularly in mid-to-high price orders, with two-thirds of orders over 15 yuan and 70% of orders over 30 yuan being processed through its platform [7]. - Despite the ongoing competition, Meituan's leadership emphasized a commitment to avoiding low-quality, price-driven competition, focusing instead on long-term value creation [13][15]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more sustainable practices, with companies beginning to reconsider their aggressive subsidy strategies in light of regulatory pressures and financial realities [9][17].

Core Insights - Meituan reported a slight revenue increase of 2% to 95.488 billion yuan in Q3 2025, but experienced a net loss of 18.632 billion yuan, a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] - The loss was primarily attributed to intense market competition in the core takeaway business and an expansion of losses in new business segments [1] Local Business Segment Pressure - Revenue from the core local business segment decreased by 2.8% to 67.447 billion yuan, with operating profit turning into a loss of 14.071 billion yuan compared to a profit in the same period last year [2] - The overall net loss for Meituan in Q3 reached 18.632 billion yuan, contrasting with a profit of 12.865 billion yuan in the same quarter of 2024 [2] - Meituan anticipates that the trend of operating losses will continue into Q4 due to ongoing competitive pressures [2] - In response to competition, Meituan is accelerating supply-side innovation and improving service quality, achieving record high daily active users and monthly transaction users in the takeaway segment [2] - Meituan's market share in takeaway orders is gradually recovering, with over two-thirds of orders above 15 yuan and over 70% of orders above 30 yuan attributed to Meituan [2] New Business Growth and International Expansion - The new business segment saw a revenue increase of 15.9% to 28.041 billion yuan, but operating losses expanded by 24.5% to 1.278 billion yuan [4] - Meituan's grocery retail businesses, such as "Xiaoxiang Supermarket" and "Kuaidui," are experiencing strong growth while improving operational efficiency [4] - The international brand Keeta achieved profitability in Hong Kong and is accelerating global expansion, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October, ahead of the three-year target [4] - Keeta's successful performance reflects Meituan's execution capabilities in global markets, with plans to pilot operations in Brazil [4] Strategic Focus and Challenges - Meituan plans to continue investing in grocery retail and international business to enhance long-term competitiveness [5] - The increase in losses from new businesses highlights the need for Meituan to balance expansion with profitability [5] - While strong growth in new businesses and international profitability provides a diversified buffer, domestic competitive pressures require careful resource management [5]

IT之家 11 月 28 日消息，美团今日发布截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的第三季度业绩公告： | | 未經審核 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至下列日期止三個月 | | | | | | | 2025年9月30日 | | 2024年9月30日 | | | | | | 佔收入 | | 佔收入 | | | | 金額 | 自分比 | 金額 | 百分比 | 同比筹動 | | | (人民幣千元,百分比除外) | | | | | | 收入 | 95,488,113 | 100.0% | 93,577,319 | 100.0% | 2.0% | | 經營(虧損)/ 溢利 | (19,759,350) | (20.7%) | 13.685.176 | 14.6% | 不摘用 | | 期内(虧損)／溢利 | (18,632,088) | (19.5%) | 12,864,954 | 13.7% | 不শ用 | | 非國際財務報告會計準則計量!: | | | | | | | 經調整EBITDA | (14,841,897) | (15.5%) | ...

Core Insights - This year's "Double 11" has shifted from traditional e-commerce competition to a focus on instant retail, with players like Taobao, Meituan, and JD engaging in rapid delivery battles [1][12] - The participation of food delivery services in "Double 11" marks a significant change, transforming the event into a "life festival" rather than just a shopping spree [1][5] Group 1: Participation of Food Delivery Services - Food delivery brands, previously sidelined, have now taken center stage in "Double 11," with Taobao Flash Sale launching a "hot stores" channel and offering significant discounts [5] - As of November 5, Taobao Flash Sale reported over 1 billion orders during "Double 11," with 19,958 restaurant brands seeing sales growth exceeding 100% compared to pre-event levels [5] - JD's food delivery service also joined the "Double 11" festivities, with a reported 13-fold increase in daily orders for its top 300 restaurant brands since the launch of the service [7] Group 2: Instant Retail Competition - The competition has evolved to focus on "minute-level" delivery, with brands like Meituan reporting over 100% sales growth for nearly 800 brands during the first day of the event [11] - Meituan has integrated nearly one million offline stores into its instant delivery network, significantly boosting sales for various product categories, including electronics and beverages [11] - Taobao Flash Sale's entry into "Double 11" represents a strategic move to enhance its presence in instant retail, with 37,000 brands and 400,000 stores participating [12] Group 3: Market Strategy and Adaptation - The shift towards instant retail indicates a need for platforms to adapt their strategies, focusing on increasing customer spending domestically and expanding user bases internationally [13] - Companies are leveraging offline resources and partnerships to enhance their service offerings, with Meituan and JD employing strategies like exclusive product deals and inventory management [13] - The reconfiguration of the instant retail market necessitates upgrades in supply chain, warehousing, and delivery systems to meet the demand for rapid delivery [13]

Group 1 - Meituan plans to launch its largest-ever regular bond issuance, seeking to raise approximately $3 billion to bolster its financial position amid intense price competition in China's food delivery and local retail markets [1][5] - The company aims to issue $2 billion in US dollar-denominated notes and an equivalent of $1 billion in offshore renminbi notes, with the issuance potentially hitting the market as early as this week [1][5] - The funds raised will primarily be used for refinancing existing offshore debt and meeting general corporate needs, with a $750 million bond maturing this week [1][5] Group 2 - Major industry players, including Alibaba and JD.com, have introduced significant discounts and incentives this year, intensifying market competition and putting pressure on Meituan's stock performance [4] - Fitch Ratings has assigned a "BBB+" rating to Meituan's proposed US dollar bonds, consistent with its existing senior unsecured bond rating, but has revised the outlook from "positive" to "stable" due to expected revenue growth slowdown [6] - Despite short-term pressures, Fitch remains optimistic about Meituan's long-term prospects, anticipating a moderation in the intensity of the price war over the next 6 to 12 months, and expects the company to return to positive free cash flow by 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that short-term competition is putting pressure on profits, but there is optimism for long-term profitability recovery due to efficiency advantages [5]. - Meituan's core local business revenue for Q2 2025 was 653.5 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 3.3% [1]. - New business revenue reached 264.9 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q2 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 918.4 billion yuan, which was 2.0% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations. EBIT was 2.3 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 97.2%. Adjusted net profit was approximately 14.9 billion yuan, also below expectations by 84.8% [1]. Core Local Business - The core local business faced competitive pressures, resulting in lower-than-expected revenue and profit. Revenue was 653.5 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue at 236.6 billion yuan, commission revenue at 249.5 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue at 135.5 billion yuan. Operating profit was 37.2 billion yuan, which was below expectations by 69.0% [1]. Food Delivery - The company expanded its user base and improved core user engagement and transaction frequency. Collaborations with restaurant merchants led to innovations that benefited both small and chain restaurants. The Meituan Flash Purchase service saw strong growth in order volume and total transaction value [2]. In-store and Travel - Meituan is expanding into new categories and innovating supply models while penetrating lower-tier markets. The company is enhancing digital transformation and standardization for merchants, providing integrated solutions to improve operational efficiency [3]. New Business - New business revenue was 264.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, which was better than expectations. The company is optimizing its grocery retail strategy and expanding its overseas presence with Keeta [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term competition may impact profit performance, Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews provide a solid competitive moat. Future profitability in the core local business is expected to improve, and new businesses are anticipated to continue narrowing losses. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3700 billion, 4356 billion, and 4939 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 9 billion, 216 billion, and 465 billion yuan [5].