黄勇说，不能将"反内卷"简单等同于"反竞争"，更不能单纯 通过涨价、去产能的方式"反内卷"。"内卷"有复杂的成因， 需要系统性的措施应对。 作者： 宋笛 封图：图虫创意 近年来，"内卷式"竞争在多个行业持续蔓延，具体表现为价格机制失灵、低创新同质化竞争与劣币驱逐良 币、市场无序扩张等现象，反映出市场有效需求不足、资源配置效率下降与产业结构失衡的系统性问题。 2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，要"综合整治内卷式竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为"，为相 关工作开展提供了政府、商事主体二分的系统治理观。随后，各部委迅速响应，多个行业陆续通过"自上而 下"或"自下而上"的方式着力解决行业内的"内卷式"竞争问题。 其中，各类行业协会和头部企业的行动值得关注。部分行业在协会和头部企业的牵头下，通过座谈、协商 的方式在"价格自律""产能自律"等方面达成协议。 这种行为固然可能在短期调整行业内的产能结构，缓解价格竞争，但往往治标不治本，反而引发了关于反 垄断方面的忧虑。 对外经济贸易大学竞争法中心主任黄勇教授是反垄断领域的知名专家，研究竞争法、经济法已有40多年。 他近期时常收到部分行业协会拟定的"协调成果"，其中一些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Transport of China has initiated a governance program for platform fees in the transportation sector, focusing on protecting the rights of truck drivers through a self-regulatory agreement signed by major freight platforms [1][2] Group 1: Self-Regulatory Agreement - The self-regulatory agreement involves four major freight platforms: Manbang Group, Huolala, Didi Delivery, and Kuaigou [1] - The agreement includes ten public commitments aimed at safeguarding the legal rights of truck drivers [1][2] Group 2: Key Commitments - The commitments are categorized into three main areas: 1. Strict source verification and real-name system for shippers, with a mechanism to jointly resist dishonest shippers [2] 2. Continuous implementation of a "sunshine action" to lower excessive fees and establish a mechanism to prevent unreasonably low freight rates [2] 3. Assurance that platforms will not force truck drivers to participate in promotional activities or link performance metrics to freight withdrawal [2] Group 3: Future Oversight and Community Involvement - The Ministry of Transport will support the association in monitoring the compliance of platform companies with the commitments [2] - There is a call for the community and truck drivers to participate in supervising the fulfillment of these commitments to promote a more regulated market order [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaigou Dache in Shenzhen will eliminate the dual model of charging both membership fees and commissions, transitioning to either a zero-commission membership fee or a pure commission model without membership fees [1] Group 1: Platform Fee Structure Changes - The platform will implement a "slimming action" on its fee structure to address long-standing complaints from drivers regarding the dual charging model [1] - A new membership product priced at 199 yuan with zero commission for 30 days will be introduced, significantly reducing the current membership fee of 499 yuan [1] - The changes aim to alleviate the financial burden on drivers amid declining earnings due to falling ride prices [1] Group 2: Driver Representation and Rights - Since its establishment in 2022, the Kuaigou Dache Shenzhen Union has actively promoted a "permanent driver representative system" and provided dedicated workspaces for driver representatives [2] - The recent democratic consultation meeting included a third-party observation group comprising local representatives, union officials, and media to provide an external perspective on contentious issues [2] - The platform aims to continue promoting "platform co-governance" to ensure driver rights and enhance satisfaction among new economy workers [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent increase in overseas ultra-long-term government bond yields, with Japan's 30-year bond yield reaching 3.15% and the US 30-year bond yield at 5.08%, the highest since October 2023 [2][4] - Concerns over inflation and fiscal policies are driving the rise in yields, with expectations of a potential short-term pullback in Japanese bond yields after temporary factors dissipate [2][4] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for US Treasury yields may remain elevated [2] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The US has adjusted tariffs, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a 0.5% increase in the RMB against the USD [3] - The report indicates that the RMB may have upward appreciation potential due to structural rebalancing in global asset allocations, particularly in Asia [3] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - Global bond yields have risen, with Japan's 10-year bond yield increasing to 1.53% and the US 10-year bond yield reaching 4.58% [4] - The report highlights that the rise in yields is influenced by various factors, including uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and inflation expectations [4] Group 4: Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the "pre-sale + current sale" model used in many overseas real estate markets, emphasizing the importance of third-party fund supervision to protect buyers [5] - This model ensures that most payments are made after project completion, reducing the risk of fund misappropriation [5] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have rebounded due to revised demand expectations following tariff reductions and OPEC+ production adjustments, with WTI and Brent prices rising by 5.8% and 2.8% respectively [6] - The report notes that trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategies are key short-term factors affecting oil prices [6] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The report highlights the recent surge in liquidity in Hong Kong's banking system, driven by currency interventions and successful IPOs, such as that of CATL [6] - It suggests that Hong Kong's market may benefit from a structural shift in global capital flows, particularly in the context of de-dollarization [6] Group 7: Company-Specific Insights - Black Sesame Intelligence is highlighted as a leading supplier of AI chips for smart driving and robotics, with a target price of 24.04 HKD and a "buy" rating [14] - Meitu's strategic partnership with Alibaba is expected to enhance growth prospects, with a "buy" rating maintained [16] - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB, with a focus on market share despite short-term profit pressures, maintaining a "buy" rating [18] - Baidu's transition towards AI cloud services is noted, with a "buy" rating based on strong revenue growth in this segment [23]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.75%, S&P 500 futures down 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.51% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.10%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.54%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.37% [2] - WTI crude oil is up 0.74% at $62.49 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 0.67% at $65.82 per barrel [2] Currency and Economic Sentiment - There is a rising expectation of US dollar depreciation, with the Bloomberg dollar index's one-year risk reversal indicator showing a negative 27 basis points, indicating the lowest level on record [3] - Morgan Stanley suggests buying US assets excluding the dollar, predicting a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that could support the bond market and boost corporate earnings [3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - Federal Reserve officials warn that the impact of tariffs will soon be fully realized, potentially leading to a new wave of price increases in the US economy [4] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicates that many companies' buffer strategies against high tariffs are running out, which could weaken overall economic activity [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - JPMorgan's CEO warns of "extreme complacency" among investors, suggesting that the market may soon face turbulence [5] - Goldman Sachs reports that clients are increasingly seeking to withdraw funds from the US market, questioning whether the US stock market's rally has reached its peak [6] Company Performance Highlights - Lowe's reported same-store sales down 1.7% but expects this key sales metric to remain flat or grow up to 1% for the year [7] - ZTO Express achieved a 19.1% year-on-year increase in package volume, with net profit up 40.9% [7] - Baidu's Q1 net profit increased by 41.65% year-on-year, reaching 77.17 billion yuan [8] - XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 660 million yuan, a 51.5% decrease year-on-year, with total revenue up 141.5% [8] - Weibo's Q1 net profit grew by 116.36% year-on-year, reaching $107 million [9] - Target's Q1 performance fell short of expectations, leading to a downward revision of sales forecasts [10] - Full Truck Alliance reported a 19% year-on-year increase in revenue, with significant growth in operational metrics [11] - iQIYI's Q1 revenue reached 71.9 billion yuan, with a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase [12] - Xinyi Technology reported a Q1 revenue of 34.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.38 billion yuan [12] - Tuya Smart's Q1 revenue grew by approximately 21.1%, exceeding expectations [12]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to deliver significant returns, with business volume and revenue growth around 20% and operating profits increasing substantially [3][4] - As competition stabilizes, operating leverage will lead to greater growth in operating profits, with companies like Manbang Group and Meituan projected to see substantial profit increases in 2024 [4][5] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of approximately 30% for leading companies in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - Revenue growth and declining expense ratios are key drivers for profit growth, with companies like Manbang Group benefiting from rapid revenue increases and improved monetization rates [14][17] - The report highlights that the faster the revenue growth and the quicker the expense ratio declines, the more significant the profit growth potential [16] High Growth in Leading Companies - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable [19][23] - The operating profit growth rates for these companies are significantly higher than their gross profit growth rates, indicating effective cost management [23] Operating Leverage - The report notes that the increase in operating profit growth is due to a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, showcasing the effect of operating leverage [28][31] - As leading companies solidify their market positions, their expense ratios are expected to stabilize, further enhancing profit margins [28][46] Revenue and Market Penetration - The revenue growth for leading companies is primarily driven by increases in business volume, with many companies outpacing industry growth rates [39][41] - The rising market penetration rates in various segments, such as ride-hailing and digital freight, are contributing to revenue growth exceeding overall market growth [44] Monetization Rates - Manbang Group's monetization rate is on the rise, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth compared to competitors whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to achieve revenue growth of around 20%, with operating profits increasing significantly. Companies like Manbang Group and Meituan are projected to have a PE ratio below 20 times in 2025, making them attractive investments [3] - As the competitive landscape stabilizes, stable sales, management, and R&D expenses are expected to lead to substantial growth in operating profits. Companies like Manbang Group, Meituan, and SF Express are anticipated to see their operating profits double in 2024, with continued rapid growth thereafter [4] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of around 30% for companies like Manbang Group, Meituan, and SF Express in 2024. Manbang Group's monetization rate is expected to increase, leading to a gross profit growth rate of 42% in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - The growth in profits is driven by revenue growth, market expansion, and decreasing expense ratios. Companies with faster revenue growth and declining expense ratios are likely to see quicker profit growth, particularly in the cross-city digital freight sector, where Manbang Group is expected to experience high profit growth [14][16][17] High Growth in Express Delivery, Ride-Hailing, and International Air Transport - In early 2025, most transportation modes are experiencing low growth in volume, while international air transport, express delivery, and ride-hailing are seeing faster growth [11] Head Companies' Profit Growth - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable. The gross profits of these companies are also expected to grow, although at a slower rate than operating profits [23] Operating Leverage - The increase in operating profit growth is attributed to a decline in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which enhances operating profit margins. As leading companies solidify their positions, these expenses are expected to stabilize [28][31] Revenue Growth Driven by Business Volume - The revenue growth of leading companies is primarily driven by an increase in business volume, with many companies expected to outpace industry growth rates in 2024 [39][41] Market Penetration Rate Increase - The market penetration rates for various sectors are on the rise, leading to revenue growth that exceeds overall market growth. This trend is particularly evident in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery sectors [44] Monetization Rate - Manbang Group's monetization rate is significantly increasing, contributing to faster revenue growth compared to competitors like Uber and Didi Chuxing, whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]