导读 美联储向保守主义的复位与传统原则的回归， 退回到原有的边界，流动性的保守转 向，沃什如果当选，将用保守和传统重新定义"鹰派"这个词； 01 权威的危机：美联储"越位"的历史 中央银行的核心使命在于维持物价稳定以及推动充分就业。其作为金融体系的"守护者"，借助调整利率和货币供给 量对宏观经济实施调控。根据沃尔特·巴芝浩（Wa lt e r Ba g e hot）的经典学说，中央银行的"传统"职能界定清晰且范畴 较窄：在金融恐慌期间，央行需以带有惩罚性的高利率为具备偿债能力的机构提供流动性支持，而在日常状态下则保 持"不干预"原则，不对市场的常规运行进行干涉，这种情形类似于消防队仅在火灾发生时出动救援，而非每日开展巡 逻与洒水作业。 ---付鹏 2026年初，凯文·沃什（Ke vi n Wa rs h）被提名为美联储新主席这一事件，并非仅 仅是一次简单的人事变动，而是对过去十五年全球中央银行主流治理理念的根本性反 思与清算。 沃什所倡导的"缩表 + 降息"政策组合，本质上是" 流动性回归保守 "理念的具体 呈现。此处的" 保守主义的复位，传统原则的回归 "并非单纯意味着政策紧缩，而是 强调风险定价权的私有化 ...

乌拉圭举行全国范围的大规模集会，在首都及全国7个省份同时进行。在首都蒙得维的亚，数千人以"委内瑞拉不孤单"为口号聚集在自由广场。参与者一致 谴责美国的军事行动。 在墨西哥首都墨西哥城，数百人在委内瑞拉驻墨大使馆前聚集。参与民众一致认为，袭击事件是拉丁美洲的历史倒退，该地区几十年来一直未卷入直接武装 冲突。美方的军事行动及对委内瑞拉领导人的强行控制缺乏法律依据，构成了不可接受的先例。 在波多黎各的圣胡安，数千人在联邦法院前集会与和平示威，谴责将加勒比地区用作军事平台，并高呼反对美国干预主义的口号，要求尊重委内瑞拉主权。 当地时间1月4日，全球各地爆发游行集会，阿根廷、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、墨西哥、波多黎各、乌拉圭、意大利、法国、西班牙及美国多个城市纷纷举行示 威活动，谴责美国对委内瑞拉的军事袭击和强行控制总统马杜罗的行为，以及对该地区干预主义的升级。 此外，在意大利首都罗马，民众在美国大使馆前进行示威抗议；在法国首都巴黎，当地民众也组织了对委内瑞拉的声援活动。（总台记者 马天静） 同时，阿根廷、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和美国多个城市也有相关示威活动发生。抗议民众一致认为，美国对委内瑞拉的侵略树立了危险的先例，并可能使针 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is increasingly adopting industrial policies similar to China's in response to concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in critical sectors like rare earths and lithium [1][2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Industrial Policy Shift - The U.S. government is considering acquiring up to 10% of Lithium Americas, which is developing the world's largest known lithium resource at the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, aiming to bolster domestic battery supply chains [4]. - A recent deal with MP Materials, a U.S. rare earth producer, involved a multi-billion dollar transaction, making the U.S. Department of Defense the largest shareholder [5]. - The U.S. also acquired a 10% stake in Intel, the only company capable of manufacturing advanced chips domestically, with a total investment of $8.9 billion, partly funded by the CHIPS and Science Act [6]. Group 2: Concerns Over Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Analysts highlight that the U.S. recognizes that relying solely on market forces may not ensure sufficient domestic supply for strategic industries, particularly in defense technology and advanced electronics [2]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving U.S. concerns about potential disruptions in semiconductor and critical mineral supply chains [2]. Group 3: Challenges in Implementing Industrial Policy - The U.S. has not engaged in industrial policy for over 40 years, leading to questions about its ability to effectively implement such strategies [6][7]. - Despite recognizing the risks of dependency on Chinese rare earth supplies since 2010, the U.S. has made slow progress in policy formulation and industry development, facing environmental and market-related challenges [7][8]. - The lengthy process of establishing a rare earth mine in the U.S. can take up to 29 years, highlighting the difficulties in reviving the domestic rare earth industry [7].

Group 1: Key Agreements and Economic Impact - The United States and the UAE have reached agreements worth over $200 billion, covering sectors such as aviation, aluminum, oil, and gas [1][3] - A significant part of the agreement includes a $14.5 billion aircraft procurement deal between Boeing, General Electric Aviation, and Etihad Airways for 28 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft [3] - The total investment commitments from Trump's Middle East trip exceed $2 trillion, with notable agreements from Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well [5][6] Group 2: Focus on High-Tech and AI Collaboration - The U.S. and UAE have agreed to establish a "U.S.-UAE AI Accelerated Partnership" to enhance cooperation in key technologies, including the launch of a 1GW AI data center [6][7] - The AI data center will be part of a larger 5GW AI park in Abu Dhabi, marking it as the largest of its kind outside the U.S. [7] - The partnership aims to facilitate the purchase of advanced AI chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, with Gulf countries looking to integrate into the U.S.-led technology supply chain [7][8] Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Strategic Shifts - Trump's visit signifies a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East, focusing on economic benefits rather than traditional diplomatic engagements [10][14] - The U.S. is reducing its military and political involvement in the region, aiming to transform Middle Eastern countries into economic partners rather than burdens [12][14] - The discussions with Syria and Iran during the visit indicate a potential recalibration of U.S. relations in the region, with an emphasis on resource acquisition and investment [12][14]