报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股与工 业金属，战术性标配国债，战术性低配美元。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 利率决议将至，建议均衡配置——战术性资产配置周度点评（20251208）；报告日期： 2025.12.08 报告作者： 王子翌（分析师），登记编号：S0880523050004 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 多重因素支持中国权益表现，我们维持对 A/H 股的战术性超配观点。 经济工作会议临近， 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济 政策有望更加积极。若美联储 12 月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为 2026 年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其 他主要大类资产的风险回报比较高。 融资需求与信贷供给仍不平衡，我们维持对国债的战术性标配观点。 在海外货币政策预期的趋松修正的背景下，我国央行货币政策或发力，以呵护银行间资 金流动性充裕稳定。此前债券市场调整较大，但融资需求与信贷供给不平衡仍是客观现实，流动性的边际改善或有利于稳定债市情 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes three key points: continuity, technological strength, and expanding domestic demand [5][6] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.17% needed over the next decade to meet the 2035 goals [5][6] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with potential interest rate cuts and an expansion of the broad deficit [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, there is a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate consumption, with a service trade restrictiveness index of 0.225, higher than the OECD average of 0.19 [6] - The demand side anticipates limited recovery in fixed asset investment, with manufacturing investment supported by equipment updates, while real estate investment is expected to narrow its decline [7][8] - CPI is projected to rise by approximately 0.7% in 2026, while PPI could range from -0.7% to 0.5% depending on various scenarios [8] Group 3: Manufacturing and PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone [14][15] - The service sector PMI has dropped to 49.5%, reflecting a contraction influenced by seasonal factors and consumer behavior [16] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, while the overall manufacturing sector remains under pressure [17] Group 4: Financial Market Perspectives - The bond market is expected to see a slight upward trend in yields due to revised economic expectations [19] - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure in November 2025, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 5.2% [21][22] - The CCASS selected 20 portfolio achieved a historical high in excess returns, with a 0.13% return in November compared to a -0.18% return for the Hang Seng Index [27][28]