证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 25 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 基建数据跟踪： "高切低" ，积极关注低位基建和地产链 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20251117-20251123） 投资要点： 本周观点： 联系人 本周市场整体走弱，上证指数下跌 3.9%，创业板指下跌 6.15%。我们判断，本轮调整 可能受到美国降息预期延后、美股高位波动加剧以及地缘政治不确定性升温等多重因素扰 动。我们认为，随着年末临近，市场或出现一定的"高切低"倾向：一方面，科技板块年 内涨幅显著，资金存在阶段性获利了结的可能；另一方面，10 月固 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that while the broad infrastructure growth has shown slight positive growth in the first ten months, there was a significant decline in October, with narrow infrastructure investment down by 8.91% year-on-year and broad infrastructure down by 12.11% [2] - The report highlights that the cumulative narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) reached 14.91 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.10%, while broad infrastructure reached 20.38 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [2] - Specific sectors such as transportation, storage, and postal services showed a minor year-on-year increase of 0.10%, but experienced a month-on-month decline of 10.09% in October [2] Group 2 - The market review indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.01%, while the Shenwan Construction Decoration Index rose by 0.35% [3] - Among individual stocks, 104 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five performers being Guosheng Technology (+60.98%), *ST Dongyi (+21.54%), Garden Shares (+17.23%), Rishang Group (+17.14%), and *ST Baoying (+16.90%) [3] - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" provides opportunities for investment in major projects, with expectations for policy stimulus to stabilize and recover investment levels [2] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks under the current liquidity and low-interest rate environment, highlighting companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge and Jianghe Group as key picks [4] - It also emphasizes the "Construction+" theme, encouraging mergers, restructuring, and transformation towards new industries such as renewable energy and digital construction, with companies like Shanghai Port and Hongrun Construction being highlighted for their clear transformation directions and growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - The construction and decoration industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with state-owned enterprises maintaining order growth despite revenue and profit pressures due to a sluggish real estate market and tightening local debt constraints [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the construction sector achieved a revenue of 5.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 123.9 billion yuan, down 10.06% year-on-year [2]. - The energy engineering state-owned enterprises continue to thrive, with China Energy Engineering and China Power Construction seeing revenue growth of 9.62% and 3.05% respectively, driven by investments in water conservancy and renewable energy [1][2]. - The total value of new contracts signed by construction state-owned enterprises in the first three quarters of 2025 is approximately 10.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 1.31% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.65% during the week, while the Shenwan Construction and Decoration Index increased by 1.85% [3]. - Among individual stocks, 109 stocks in the Shenwan Construction sector rose, with the top five performers being *ST Dongyi (+27.68%), Hainan Development (+27.41%), Chongqing Construction (+25.24%), Shanghai Construction (+20.42%), and Yaxiang Integration (+19.17%) [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The "dividend" strategy focuses on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks that may have investment value in a context of loose liquidity and low interest rates, with recommendations for Sichuan Road and Bridge and Jianghe Group [4][5]. - The "Construction+" strategy emphasizes policy encouragement for mergers, restructuring, and transformation, with a focus on companies that are clearly oriented towards new business areas such as renewable energy, smart manufacturing, and digital construction [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region was celebrated, showcasing significant economic achievements. Since its establishment in 1955, Xinjiang's GDP has grown from 1.231 billion to 2.05 trillion in 2024, an increase of over 200 times. The fixed asset investment growth rate in Xinjiang has significantly outpaced the national average, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in the first eight months of 2025, compared to the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - Transportation infrastructure investment in Xinjiang is experiencing high growth, with plans to complete 80 billion yuan in road traffic investment in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Key projects include the Urumqi-Weili Highway and the new Tibet Railway, which is expected to start construction in November 2025 [3][12] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is accelerating, with total investment in ongoing and planned projects exceeding 625.5 billion yuan. This includes significant investments in coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects, indicating a complete industrial chain development [4][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment growth is robust, with a 9.1% increase year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, significantly higher than the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - The region's GDP has seen exponential growth, highlighting its economic resilience and investment potential [2][9] 2. Transportation Infrastructure - Xinjiang plans to invest approximately 80 billion yuan in road construction in 2025, with a focus on major projects to enhance connectivity [3][11] - The new Tibet Railway project is set to begin construction in November 2025, with an estimated total investment of 300-350 billion yuan [12][13] 3. Coal Chemical Industry - The total investment in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang exceeds 625.5 billion yuan, with significant contributions from coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects [4][18] - The coal chemical sector is expected to form a complete industrial chain, enhancing energy supply and industrial upgrading [4][18] 4. Market Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 2.84% this week, with significant gains in infrastructure and chemical engineering sectors [6][25] - Notable stock performances include Xinjiang Jiaojian (+20.97%) and Beixin Road and Bridge (+13.71%) [6][25]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, with electricity, heat, gas, and water sectors leading the growth. From January to August 2025, national infrastructure investment continued to show moderate growth, with narrow infrastructure (excluding electricity) reaching 11.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. Broad infrastructure totaled 15.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.42%, significantly higher than the narrow measure, mainly supported by high-growth sectors like electricity. In August, narrow infrastructure saw a year-on-year decline of 5.85%, while broad infrastructure declined by 6.42%, indicating a slowdown in overall momentum. [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment shows resilience, with electricity, heat, gas, and water sectors leading the growth. [10] - Future outlook suggests that despite a phase of slowdown in infrastructure investment, key projects like the New Tibet Railway and the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project are expected to support overall investment. [10] 2. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index rose by 0.44%, with sub-sectors like housing construction and engineering consulting services showing notable gains. [14] - Top-performing stocks included Longjian Road & Bridge (+31.70%), Sentai Holdings (+29.14%), and Jiankang Institute (+27.40%). [14] 3. Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week totaled 143.916 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 6.2697 trillion yuan, up 45.02% year-on-year. [21] - Urban investment bonds issued this week amounted to 89.345 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 8.891 billion yuan, leading to a cumulative net financing deficit of 373.946 billion yuan. [21] 4. Company Dynamics - Notable contract announcements include Mongolian Grass Ecological's contract worth 225 million yuan for a project in Inner Mongolia, and China Power Construction's new contracts totaling 800.797 billion yuan from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.71%. [29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is experiencing revenue and profit pressure, but recovery momentum is gradually accumulating under supportive policies [4][8] - In the first half of 2025, the construction sector achieved revenue of 3.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91.5 billion yuan, down 6.60% year-on-year [4][8] - Despite the overall decline, the gap between revenue and net profit growth rates has narrowed significantly compared to the first half of 2024, indicating a temporary easing of profit pressure [4][8] - The issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds and ongoing investment stabilization policies are expected to gradually open up profit recovery space for the sector [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction sector's revenue growth is slowing, with profits under pressure. In the first half of 2025, the sector's revenue decreased by 6.02% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 6.60% [8] - The revenue growth rate has declined by 3.04 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, but the net profit growth rate has improved by 2.77 percentage points [8] - The overall gross margin for the construction sector in the first half of 2025 was 10.02%, down 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.87%, down 0.04 percentage points [13] Subsector Performance - The performance of subsectors is mixed, with the steel structure sector showing revenue growth of 2.02%, driven by overseas industrial building orders [4][32] - The landscaping sector and chemical engineering saw significant profit growth, with net profits increasing by 70.48% and 19.81% respectively [4][32] - The gross margin improvements are concentrated in landscaping, chemical engineering, and international engineering, while the net margin for steel structures and central enterprises has declined [34] Central Enterprises and Orders - In the first half of 2025, the nine major central construction enterprises signed new orders totaling 7.79 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year, despite an overall industry decline [4][56] - The central enterprises' new orders in overseas markets grew by 16.35% year-on-year, becoming a significant support for order structure optimization [56] - The valuation of central enterprises remains low, with expected PE ratios around 5 times and PB ratios below 0.5 times, indicating strong shareholder returns [59]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The expectation of a US interest rate cut has receded, leading to an increase in the duration of domestic bond funds, with the average duration of interest rate bonds rising to approximately 5.2 years as of July 4 [2][9] - The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds in the third quarter, maintaining a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds with yields above 2% [9] - The public wealth management product's net loss rate has decreased to about 0.86%, indicating a significant improvement in market sentiment [2][8] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials Sector - The construction sector is currently focusing on two main lines: dividend stocks and "construction+" strategies, with a favorable macro liquidity environment and low interest rates enhancing the appeal of dividend assets [10][11] - The report recommends companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, which has a robust order book and a commitment to high dividend payouts, as well as Jianghe Group, which has shown strong performance in project management and international expansion [11][13] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend is expected to drive a recovery in the cement industry's supply-demand dynamics, while the demand for high-end electronic fabrics is projected to surge due to AI advancements [19][21] Group 3: Real Estate Market Developments - In the real estate sector, new home transactions in 42 key cities totaled 3.08 million square meters, reflecting a 2.5% decrease week-on-week, while second-hand home transactions saw a 9.1% decline [15][16] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of utilizing local real estate regulation policies to promote a stable and healthy market, with various cities relaxing housing fund policies to ease purchasing burdens [17][18] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate market, suggesting that high-quality housing will see increased demand amid ongoing policy support [18] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - HaiNeng Technology is expected to report a significant profit turnaround in H1 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 136 million yuan, marking a 35% year-on-year increase [24][26] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lineup, particularly in the chromatography and spectroscopy sectors, while also investing in automation and smart laboratory solutions [28][29] - The report highlights the company's commitment to R&D, with a sustained increase in investment over the past eight years, aiming to capture a larger share of the domestic chromatography market [27][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector is currently focusing on two main lines: dividends and "Construction+" strategies. The macro liquidity is abundant, and interest rates remain low, leading to a preference for low-volatility, high-dividend, and low-valuation assets. The value of dividend asset allocation continues to rise. Additionally, policies are continuously supporting construction companies to explore new growth avenues through mergers, restructuring, and transformation into new business areas such as new energy, smart manufacturing, digitalization, and operation services [4][12] Summary by Sections Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sichuan Road and Bridge, which is deeply involved in infrastructure construction in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, benefiting from a strong order backlog and high profitability. The company’s order scale is expected to reach 291.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, providing solid growth assurance for the next three years. The dividend policy is continuously optimized, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% over the next three years, and a current dividend yield at a relatively high level in the industry [5][11][14] - Attention is also drawn to Jianghe Group, which has maintained its leading position in the industry despite the overall downturn. The company has a strong order expansion capability and is actively returning profits to shareholders, with a projected dividend payout ratio of nearly 98% in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 9% [5][18][24] Market Performance - The construction decoration index increased by 0.63% during the week, with sub-sectors such as landscaping, steel structures, and decoration showing significant gains of 4.01%, 3.33%, and 2.13% respectively. A total of 96 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five performers being Chengbang Co. (+42.23%), Hangzhou Landscaping (+31.16%), Hopu Co. (+21.35%), Huilv Ecology (+15.65%), and Baijia Technology (+12.50%) [7][37] Structural Investment Opportunities - The report suggests three main lines for structural investment opportunities in the construction sector: 1. Continued investment in regional infrastructure, particularly in the central and western regions and along the "Belt and Road" initiative [7] 2. Valuation recovery of central and state-owned enterprises benefiting from stable dividends and governance improvements [7] 3. Growth potential through transformation and upgrading into new business areas such as smart manufacturing and digitalization [7][12]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Structural market conditions are emerging, leading to a reassessment of the investment value in the construction sector. Since 2025, the construction sector has been in a phase of weak recovery, with cautious market sentiment and low valuation and trading activity. However, with ongoing macro policies supporting the market, accelerated special fund disbursement, and increasing differentiation among enterprises, structural investment opportunities are gradually appearing within the sector. It is recommended to select quality stocks with policy advantages, profit recovery capabilities, or growth elasticity based on three main lines: "regional direction," "relative return configuration," and "industrial extension and upgrading" [5][11][20]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The construction sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with fixed asset investments in the western and central regions growing by 6.2% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively, significantly above the national average of 4.2% [6][12]. - Water conservancy investments reached 294.36 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, indicating steady progress in infrastructure construction [13]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative continues to see trade recovery, with a total trade volume of 2.14 trillion USD in 2024, up 5.16% year-on-year [15][16]. Section 2: Stock Selection Strategies - Three main lines for stock selection are proposed: 1. Focus on regions with clear policy support, particularly in the central and western regions and water conservancy projects [6][12]. 2. Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are characterized by stable dividends and low valuations, making them attractive for defensive investment [7][16]. 3. Companies exploring diversified transformation paths, such as "construction+" models, are expected to create new growth curves in emerging fields like smart manufacturing and digital economy [20]. Section 3: Market Review - The construction sector index rose by 1.12% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [31]. - Among the stocks, Hopu Co. saw a significant increase of 44.63%, while the overall market had 127 stocks in the construction sector rise [31].