Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a slight price stabilization, with increased inquiries and improved trading conditions, while supply pressures are easing due to reduced production and inventory adjustments [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% drop), but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% [2] - The 300 series output in December is expected to be 1.7147 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern [2] - As of December 26, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 477,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,000 tons [2] - On December 29, stainless steel futures inventory is reported at 47,462 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 850 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with increased inquiries and improved trading conditions as year-end stocking activities are nearly completed [3] - Macro factors include the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the domestic central bank's liquidity injections, which support growth and consumption [3] - Nickel ore supply is tightening due to seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, with expectations of price declines in domestic nickel ore [3] - Nickel iron prices are showing strength due to tightening raw material expectations, with recent inquiries around 910 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply increases [3] Overall Outlook - The supply pressure is easing slightly, with strengthened cost support from the nickel and nickel iron markets, but demand remains weak in the off-season [3] - Market sentiment is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a reference range of 12,500 to 13,200 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed situation with supply pressures easing slightly, while demand remains weak, leading to a general expectation of price fluctuations in the short term [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29%, with the 300 series at 1.7147 million tons, down 4.4% month-on-month and 7.6% year-on-year [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, and some companies may schedule early annual maintenance due to profit pressures [2] Inventory - The overall pace of inventory reduction is accelerating, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern, with warehouse receipts continuing to trend downward [2] - As of December 26, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 477,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,000 tons [2] - On December 25, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 47,580 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,275 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market showed narrow fluctuations, with a cooling inquiry atmosphere and increased discounting by merchants, but overall trading sentiment remains subdued [3] - Macro factors include the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the domestic central bank's liquidity injections, which have made statements to stabilize growth and promote consumption [3] - Nickel ore supply is tightening due to seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines, and domestic nickel ore prices are expected to decline [3] - Nickel iron prices are supported at around 920 yuan per nickel (tax included), while ferrochrome prices remain stable with factories focusing on order fulfillment [3] Short-term Outlook - The short-term market sentiment for stainless steel is expected to improve slightly, but the fundamental supply-demand dynamics continue to create uncertainty, with price fluctuations anticipated in the range of 12,500 to 13,200 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with price fluctuations, driven by supply constraints and weak demand in the downstream sectors [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% [2] - The overall reduction in steel production is limited, but year-end maintenance and losses may lead more mills to reduce output [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern, with warehouse receipts continuing to trend downward [2] - As of December 19, social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 484,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,400 tons [2] - On December 18, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 48,855 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,523 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is maintaining a strong performance, with a rising atmosphere for price increases, although high-priced transactions are limited [3] - Nickel ore prices are influenced by news from Indonesia, with expectations of a decline in domestic trade benchmark prices [3] - Nickel iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (including tax), indicating a recovery in iron plant profits [3] - Demand remains weak in downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction, leading to limited order releases [3] Short-term Outlook - The market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, but the fundamental supply-demand dynamics will continue to create fluctuations [3] - The main price reference for stainless steel is set between 12,300 and 13,000 yuan, with attention on nickel ore news and the execution of production cuts by steel mills [3]

Market Overview - As of September 22, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports is 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 100,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a shift towards inventory reduction [1] - The actual arrival volume last week was 235,600 cubic meters, down by 234,400 cubic meters, with New Zealand accounting for 210,000 cubic meters of this volume, a decrease of 209,000 cubic meters; the expected arrival volume from New Zealand is projected to increase to approximately 336,000 cubic meters this week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily outflow of coniferous logs from 13 ports across 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a slight decrease of 90 cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The current market for raw wood is stable, with no significant contradictions in supply and demand; however, there is a weak reality against strong expectations, leading to weaker spot transactions [2] Price Trends - As of September 24, the spot market prices for raw wood remain unchanged, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine at 770 yuan per cubic meter [2] - The overall price trend in the spot market is stable, with expectations of increased arrivals and tightening supply; however, there is currently no clear upward momentum in prices, leading to an anticipated range-bound fluctuation in raw wood prices [3]