Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a slight price stabilization, with increased inquiries and improved trading conditions, while supply pressures are easing due to reduced production and inventory adjustments [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% drop), but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% [2] - The 300 series output in December is expected to be 1.7147 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern [2] - As of December 26, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 477,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,000 tons [2] - On December 29, stainless steel futures inventory is reported at 47,462 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 850 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with increased inquiries and improved trading conditions as year-end stocking activities are nearly completed [3] - Macro factors include the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the domestic central bank's liquidity injections, which support growth and consumption [3] - Nickel ore supply is tightening due to seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, with expectations of price declines in domestic nickel ore [3] - Nickel iron prices are showing strength due to tightening raw material expectations, with recent inquiries around 910 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply increases [3] Overall Outlook - The supply pressure is easing slightly, with strengthened cost support from the nickel and nickel iron markets, but demand remains weak in the off-season [3] - Market sentiment is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a reference range of 12,500 to 13,200 [4]

【操作建议】主力参考12500-13200 【短期观点】偏强震荡 【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月25日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13000元/吨，日环比下跌50元/吨；佛山宏旺 304冷轧价格13000元/吨，日环比下跌100元/吨；基差180元/吨，日环比上涨35元/吨。 【供应】据Mysteel统计11月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量预计345.92万吨，月环比减少6.18万吨，降幅 1.6%，同比增加4.2%；300系179.38万吨，月环比减少0.62万吨，降幅0.3%，同比增加0.4%。12月粗钢 排产322.58万吨，月环比减少7.65%，同比减少6.29%；其中300系171.47万吨，月环比减少4.4%，同比 减少7.6。目前钢厂整体减产力度有限，年末钢厂检修增加，部分企业可能提前安排年度检修，亏损压 力可能迫使更多钢厂主动减产。 【库存】社会库存去化整体加快，但高库存的现实压力依然突出，仓单维持趋势性回落。截至12月26 日，无锡和佛山300系社会库存47.71万吨，周环比减少0.7万吨。12月25日不锈钢期货库存47580吨，周 环比减少1275吨。 【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面窄幅震荡为主，现 ...

【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月22日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12900元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12900元/吨，日环比上涨50元/吨；基差220元/吨，日环比下跌130元/吨。 【原料】镍矿方面，印尼APNI透露2026年工作计划和预算(RKAB)中提出的镍矿石产量约为2.5亿吨， 较2025年3.79亿吨的产量目标大幅下降。菲律宾北部矿山Eramen1.4%镍矿FOB40成交落地；印尼12月 (二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.11-0.18美元/湿吨，主流内贸升水+25，镍矿内贸价格预计仍将有所下跌。 镍铁议价区间稍有上调，周内镍铁价格止跌，镍铁成交价格拉涨至900元/镍(舱底含税)附近，铁厂利润 亏损有所修复。不锈钢需求仍偏疲软；铬铁价格平稳运行，工厂多交订单为主。 【供应】据Mysteel统计11月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量预计345.92万吨，月环比减少6.18万吨，降幅 1.6%，同比增加4.2%；300系179.38万吨，月环比减少0.62万吨，降幅0.3%，同比增加0.4%。12月粗钢 排产322.58万吨，月环比减少7.65%，同比减少6.29%；其中300系171.47 ...

Market Overview - As of September 22, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports is 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 100,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a shift towards inventory reduction [1] - The actual arrival volume last week was 235,600 cubic meters, down by 234,400 cubic meters, with New Zealand accounting for 210,000 cubic meters of this volume, a decrease of 209,000 cubic meters; the expected arrival volume from New Zealand is projected to increase to approximately 336,000 cubic meters this week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily outflow of coniferous logs from 13 ports across 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a slight decrease of 90 cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The current market for raw wood is stable, with no significant contradictions in supply and demand; however, there is a weak reality against strong expectations, leading to weaker spot transactions [2] Price Trends - As of September 24, the spot market prices for raw wood remain unchanged, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine at 770 yuan per cubic meter [2] - The overall price trend in the spot market is stable, with expectations of increased arrivals and tightening supply; however, there is currently no clear upward momentum in prices, leading to an anticipated range-bound fluctuation in raw wood prices [3]