Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the express delivery sector, specifically recommending Shentong Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and Yunda Express [6][20][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rebound in the express delivery sector driven by price increases and seasonal demand, with expectations for significant profit elasticity in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - Despite August being a traditional off-peak season, the industry is experiencing improved sentiment due to anti-involution measures, which are expected to sustain price increases through the end of the year [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the normalization of social security and the development of industry regulations will elevate valuation levels in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In August, the total retail sales growth slowed to +3.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales growing at +7.1%, indicating stronger online performance compared to offline [2]. - The express delivery volume in August increased by +12.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][3]. Price Trends - The average price per delivery piece in August was 7.37 RMB, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of -7.2% [2][3]. - Price increases have been implemented in over 75% of regions, with expectations for continued price recovery in September [2][3]. Company Recommendations - Shentong Express and YTO Express are the top picks, followed by ZTO Express and Yunda Express, with a specific mention of Jitu Express benefiting from high growth in overseas markets [1][3][6]. - The report emphasizes that Shentong Express has shown the best balance of volume and price, leading to the fastest revenue growth in August [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that the express delivery sector will see a significant rebound in profitability due to ongoing price increases and the impact of anti-involution policies [3][21]. - Specific financial forecasts for companies include adjustments to net profit estimates for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the competitive landscape and pricing strategies [21][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector is expected to see price increases due to a "de-involution" initiative in Anhui Province, which aims to combat unhealthy price competition and promote high-quality industry development. Starting September 15, 2025, express prices in Anhui will rise by no less than 0.2 yuan per ticket, which is anticipated to help stabilize prices in the central and eastern regions of China [4][3] - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with VLCC TD3c TCE rising to $82,674 per day, a 34.13% increase from the previous week. This surge is attributed to the seasonal release of cargo volumes and geopolitical factors affecting oil exports [6][7] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in ticket prices, with a positive year-on-year growth trend observed since August 13, 2025. This is driven by a rebound in business travel and inbound tourism, suggesting a potential for continued price increases [8][9] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics industry is showing resilience in demand, with a focus on reducing unhealthy competition. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express are expected to benefit from this trend, with potential for improved profitability and valuation [11] Shipping - The oil transportation market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment. Companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are recommended for investment [11] - The dry bulk shipping market is also anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations and increased demand for commodities. Companies like China Merchants Industry Holdings and Haitong Development are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to experience long-term growth due to low supply growth and improving demand. Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from this trend [11] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are positioned well for growth due to industry dynamics and strategic transformations [11] Ports - The port sector is seen as stable with strong cash flows, and companies like China Merchants Port and Tangshan Port are recommended for their growth potential [11]

快递反内卷：价格传导通路顺畅，行业盈利显著提升 20250820 摘要 义乌地区快递价格在 8 月已两轮提价基础上，再次提价 0.2 元至 1.4 元/ 件，与广东价格对齐，旨在锁定市场份额并推进反内卷，浙江、福建、 安徽等地预计跟进，涨幅在 0.3-0.5 元不等。 快递行业下半年竞争趋缓，四季度旺季盈利能力有望改善。2025 年新 一轮反内卷符合政策诉求，上半年特价件侵蚀利润，总部和加盟商均面 临盈利压力，总部利润下滑，加盟商生存空间受挤压。 快递员社保新规增加网点用人成本，若按全国平均 4,500 元社保基数缴 费，单票成本增加约 0.11 元；若按快递员整体收入缴费，则单票成本 增加约 0.23 元。已有 30%快递员缴纳社保的情况下，单票成本分别增 加 0.08 元和 0.16 元。 2025 年 1-7 月快递行业业务量同比增长 18.7%，需求旺盛支撑终端提 价，对增量影响有限。快递价格占电商客单价比例较低，即使终端价格 上涨 0.5 元，新增物流成本占比不到 1%，对电商经营影响较小。 提高终端价格后利润弹性较大，参考 2021-2022 年通达系利润表现， 2022 年单票利润及总利润同比增 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of anti-involution policies in Guangdong Province starting July 7, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and protect the rights of couriers [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Implementation of Anti-Involution Policies**: - Guangdong Province has established a guiding group to adjust pricing standards based on the cost standards set by the Yiwu Postal Administration, with prices for major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu set at approximately 1.48 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.40 CNY per kilogram respectively [1][4]. - A 15-day lock period from August 5 to 20 was established to prevent cross-region pickups, with strict enforcement of the guiding prices [1][4]. - **Market Performance**: - The average growth rate of the express delivery industry in the first half of 2025 was 16.8%, with a decline of 6.8%. The expected annual growth rate is projected to reach 18% to 19% [6]. - Daily average package volume in Guangdong reached 129 million, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with Zhongtong leading at 34 million packages daily [2]. - **Pricing Adjustments**: - The average price for regular franchisees ranges from 1.20 to 1.25 CNY per kilogram, while discounted express services are priced lower, with Zhongtong's special express at approximately 1.05 CNY [2][5]. - A price increase of 0.2 CNY per package was implemented across all brands in Guangdong, with adjustments based on market conditions [5]. - **Competitive Dynamics**: - Zhongtong and Yuantong are expected to benefit from the price adjustments, as they can narrow the cost gap with competitors, enhancing their competitive edge [7][8]. - Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are focusing on price increases to mitigate losses [7]. - **Future Outlook**: - The express delivery market is expected to see a stable and prolonged price increase trend, particularly during peak seasons from August to September [5]. - The introduction of mandatory social insurance for couriers is anticipated to further drive price increases, with an expected average rise of around 0.15 CNY [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: - Zhongtong's system cost is approximately 1.25 CNY per kilogram, leading to widespread losses among outlets due to pricing pressures [3]. - The profit margins between different brands vary significantly, with Zhongtong's single ticket profit at 0.26 CNY and Yuantong at 0.15 CNY, indicating a direct impact on pricing power [17]. - **Strategic Moves by Companies**: - Shentong's acquisition of Alibaba's Dan Niao may provide short-term benefits, but long-term success will depend on improving pricing capabilities in the low-price segment [9]. - Jitu faces challenges with network integration post-acquisition of Best Express, leading to increased operational costs [10]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - There is currently no significant shortage of couriers, with average earnings between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY. However, upcoming regulations requiring social insurance may lead to fluctuations in labor supply [22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the express delivery industry's current state, competitive landscape, and future expectations.