快递反内卷：价格传导通路顺畅，行业盈利显著提升 20250820 摘要 义乌地区快递价格在 8 月已两轮提价基础上，再次提价 0.2 元至 1.4 元/ 件，与广东价格对齐，旨在锁定市场份额并推进反内卷，浙江、福建、 安徽等地预计跟进，涨幅在 0.3-0.5 元不等。 快递行业下半年竞争趋缓，四季度旺季盈利能力有望改善。2025 年新 一轮反内卷符合政策诉求，上半年特价件侵蚀利润，总部和加盟商均面 临盈利压力，总部利润下滑，加盟商生存空间受挤压。 快递员社保新规增加网点用人成本，若按全国平均 4,500 元社保基数缴 费，单票成本增加约 0.11 元；若按快递员整体收入缴费，则单票成本 增加约 0.23 元。已有 30%快递员缴纳社保的情况下，单票成本分别增 加 0.08 元和 0.16 元。 2025 年 1-7 月快递行业业务量同比增长 18.7%，需求旺盛支撑终端提 价，对增量影响有限。快递价格占电商客单价比例较低，即使终端价格 上涨 0.5 元，新增物流成本占比不到 1%，对电商经营影响较小。 提高终端价格后利润弹性较大，参考 2021-2022 年通达系利润表现， 2022 年单票利润及总利润同比增 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of anti-involution policies in Guangdong Province starting July 7, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and protect the rights of couriers [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Implementation of Anti-Involution Policies**: - Guangdong Province has established a guiding group to adjust pricing standards based on the cost standards set by the Yiwu Postal Administration, with prices for major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu set at approximately 1.48 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.40 CNY per kilogram respectively [1][4]. - A 15-day lock period from August 5 to 20 was established to prevent cross-region pickups, with strict enforcement of the guiding prices [1][4]. - **Market Performance**: - The average growth rate of the express delivery industry in the first half of 2025 was 16.8%, with a decline of 6.8%. The expected annual growth rate is projected to reach 18% to 19% [6]. - Daily average package volume in Guangdong reached 129 million, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with Zhongtong leading at 34 million packages daily [2]. - **Pricing Adjustments**: - The average price for regular franchisees ranges from 1.20 to 1.25 CNY per kilogram, while discounted express services are priced lower, with Zhongtong's special express at approximately 1.05 CNY [2][5]. - A price increase of 0.2 CNY per package was implemented across all brands in Guangdong, with adjustments based on market conditions [5]. - **Competitive Dynamics**: - Zhongtong and Yuantong are expected to benefit from the price adjustments, as they can narrow the cost gap with competitors, enhancing their competitive edge [7][8]. - Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are focusing on price increases to mitigate losses [7]. - **Future Outlook**: - The express delivery market is expected to see a stable and prolonged price increase trend, particularly during peak seasons from August to September [5]. - The introduction of mandatory social insurance for couriers is anticipated to further drive price increases, with an expected average rise of around 0.15 CNY [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: - Zhongtong's system cost is approximately 1.25 CNY per kilogram, leading to widespread losses among outlets due to pricing pressures [3]. - The profit margins between different brands vary significantly, with Zhongtong's single ticket profit at 0.26 CNY and Yuantong at 0.15 CNY, indicating a direct impact on pricing power [17]. - **Strategic Moves by Companies**: - Shentong's acquisition of Alibaba's Dan Niao may provide short-term benefits, but long-term success will depend on improving pricing capabilities in the low-price segment [9]. - Jitu faces challenges with network integration post-acquisition of Best Express, leading to increased operational costs [10]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - There is currently no significant shortage of couriers, with average earnings between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY. However, upcoming regulations requiring social insurance may lead to fluctuations in labor supply [22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the express delivery industry's current state, competitive landscape, and future expectations.