Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector is expected to see price increases due to a "de-involution" initiative in Anhui Province, which aims to combat unhealthy price competition and promote high-quality industry development. Starting September 15, 2025, express prices in Anhui will rise by no less than 0.2 yuan per ticket, which is anticipated to help stabilize prices in the central and eastern regions of China [4][3] - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with VLCC TD3c TCE rising to $82,674 per day, a 34.13% increase from the previous week. This surge is attributed to the seasonal release of cargo volumes and geopolitical factors affecting oil exports [6][7] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in ticket prices, with a positive year-on-year growth trend observed since August 13, 2025. This is driven by a rebound in business travel and inbound tourism, suggesting a potential for continued price increases [8][9] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics industry is showing resilience in demand, with a focus on reducing unhealthy competition. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express are expected to benefit from this trend, with potential for improved profitability and valuation [11] Shipping - The oil transportation market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment. Companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are recommended for investment [11] - The dry bulk shipping market is also anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations and increased demand for commodities. Companies like China Merchants Industry Holdings and Haitong Development are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to experience long-term growth due to low supply growth and improving demand. Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from this trend [11] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are positioned well for growth due to industry dynamics and strategic transformations [11] Ports - The port sector is seen as stable with strong cash flows, and companies like China Merchants Port and Tangshan Port are recommended for their growth potential [11]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 国内客货运平稳增长，油运受益地缘催化 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 5 月 5 日-2025 年 5 月 11 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）4 月 21 日-4 月 27 日全国物流保通保畅有序运行。根据国务院物流保通保畅工 作领导小组办公室监测汇总数据，4 月 21 日-4 月 27 日，全国货运物流有序运行， 其中：国家铁路累计运输货物 7787.8 万吨，环比增长 3%；全国高速公路累计货车 通行 5675.4 万辆，环比增长 2.25%；邮政快递累计揽收量约 40.75 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The logistics sector is showing resilience with a steady increase in express delivery volumes and revenues, indicating a robust demand environment [5][6][22] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends favoring growth [15] - The shipping sector faces challenges due to ongoing tariff conflicts, but oil tanker demand is projected to rise due to geopolitical factors [15] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations were stable from April 14 to April 20, with rail freight at 75.61 million tons (down 1.66% week-on-week) and express delivery volumes reaching approximately 3.95 billion pieces (up 3.59%) [5] - Shentong Express reported a significant improvement in 2024, with revenues of 47.169 billion yuan (up 15.26%) and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan (up 250.24%) [6] - The overall express delivery market is characterized by strong demand and limited price decline, with major players like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng benefiting from cyclical recovery [15] Aviation - Huaxia Airlines reported a net profit of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 232% increase year-on-year, driven by increased flight operations and passenger volumes [9] - The airline industry is expected to see a rebound in ticket sales, with a long-term positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand [15] Shipping - The shipping sector is experiencing significant operational adjustments due to ongoing US-China tariff conflicts, with a 44% year-on-year decrease in vessel numbers to US ports [11] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.4% to 1305 points, indicating a potential recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [12] - Oil tanker demand is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and limited new ship orders, suggesting a favorable outlook for the oil shipping segment [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The logistics sector is experiencing stable growth, with national freight logistics operating smoothly, showing a slight increase in cargo transport and express delivery volumes [4] - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff policies presents structural opportunities, particularly in the road transport sector, which is currently in a stable growth phase [4] - The logistics industry may face increased cost pressures due to high tariffs, potentially accelerating the formation of a unified logistics market where scale and technology become core competitive advantages [5] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand and lower oil prices, while facing challenges from increased costs due to tariffs on imported aircraft and parts [6][10] - The shipping industry is threatened by the ongoing trade tensions and tariffs, which could lead to a restructuring of global trade routes and supply chains, favoring oil transportation and intra-Asian shipping [10][11] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations have been orderly, with significant increases in cargo transport and express delivery volumes during the monitored period [4] - The road transport sector saw a year-on-year increase in freight volume and passenger flow, indicating a potential for growth driven by domestic manufacturing [4] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see a rebound in demand due to macroeconomic recovery, with a focus on key airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Air China [16] - The supply chain for aircraft manufacturing is under pressure due to tariffs, which could increase costs for airlines [6] Shipping - The shipping industry faces challenges from U.S. tariffs, which have significantly impacted global trade volumes, particularly in long-distance trade between the U.S. and Asia [10] - The oil shipping segment may benefit from increased demand due to geopolitical factors and sanctions affecting oil trade [11] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with major players like ZTO Express and SF Express expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [16] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, providing opportunities for long-term investment in leading companies [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector shows strong demand with a year-on-year growth of 22.4% in the volume of express deliveries for January and February, totaling 28.48 billion pieces and generating revenue of 221.04 billion yuan, which is an 11.2% increase [4] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for upward movement in stock prices. Current booking data suggests a short-term rebound, presenting a value opportunity for investors [10][12] - The shipping sector is experiencing a tightening supply due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, while demand is expected to rise due to increased non-OPEC production and sanctions on oil trade with Iran and Russia [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express delivery industry reported a total of 135.9 billion pieces in February, with a year-on-year growth of 58.8% and revenue of 99.09 billion yuan, up 30.4% [21][24] - Major companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, which are positioned for long-term growth and recovery [12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by low long-term supply growth, with demand expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery. The current booking data indicates a potential rebound, making it a good time for investment [10] - Key companies to focus on include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines [10][12] Shipping and Vessels - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained demand growth due to limited new orders and increased sanctions on oil trade, while the dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover as environmental regulations push out older vessels [12] - Companies to consider include China Shipping Development and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The dry bulk market is showing signs of recovery, with freight rates and FFA prices both increasing. Cape-sized vessel spot rates have doubled compared to the low point on February 12, reaching $11,584 per day, although still down 56% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved due to better weather in Australia and a shift in coal shipping to Cape-sized vessels, leading to tight capacity in the Pacific market [5] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a decrease of 5.0% to 1515 points as of February 28, with varying changes in rates for different routes [6] - The oil tanker freight rates have decreased, with the BDTI index down 3.2% to 888 points, and the TCE for VLCC down 8.8% [6] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping increased by 20.5% to 1078 points, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [7] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The dry bulk market is recovering with freight rates increasing significantly. Cape-sized vessel rates have reached $11,584 per day, while Panamax and Supramax rates have increased by 51% and 69% respectively. The FFA market is also showing a positive trend with March contract prices nearing $18,000 per day [5] - The oil tanker market is facing downward pressure with a decrease in freight rates across various vessel types [6] - The BDI index has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [7] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand gap driving growth. The spring travel season is showing positive booking data, indicating a potential rebound in demand [14] - Global air passenger demand increased by 10% in January, with the Asia-Pacific region performing particularly well [9] - The CAPSE report indicates a positive trend in travel willingness for March, suggesting a recovery in air travel demand [10] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with overall demand remaining strong. The leading companies in the sector are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [14] - The logistics sector has maintained smooth operations, with significant increases in freight volumes across various transport modes [11] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving with the introduction of new low-altitude logistics routes, enhancing delivery efficiency in urban areas [12] - Companies like Shenzhen International are expected to see performance improvements due to the transformation of logistics parks [16] Shipping and Shipbuilding - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained demand due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, while the dry bulk market is anticipated to recover due to regulatory pressures on older vessels and new mining projects [14] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing tight capacity, with new orders extending delivery times to 2027/28, driving up ship prices [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping and shipbuilding market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports, indicating that recent measures have led to a significant decline in shipping volumes [3][11]. - It notes that the Iranian oil shipping export volume decreased by 2.6 million barrels per day over a 15-month period due to sustained sanctions during the Trump administration [11]. - The report also mentions that following the sanctions imposed on January 10, the floating storage of Iranian oil has remained at a relatively high level since December 2024 [13]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The shipping and port sector is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, particularly U.S. sanctions on Iran [3]. - **Sanction Effects**: The report discusses the historical context of U.S. sanctions and their direct effects on Iranian oil exports, emphasizing the long-term impact on shipping volumes [11]. - **Current Trends**: Recent data indicates that despite sanctions, Iranian floating storage levels are elevated, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market [13].