2026年刚开年，各路大佬又开始了对楼市的新一轮"预言大会"。有人说要反弹，有人说还得跌，有人说"横盘稳着走"。 听多了是不是会更迷糊？ 那好吧，本期内容，我们不说虚的、不玩概念，就用踏踏实实的数据，把2026年楼市可能的走向，真话或许不中听，但往往最值钱。 01、房子没卖多少，"惜售"房东却变多了 不知道你注意到没有，最近二手房挂牌量好像没有以前那么"汹涌"了。 一组比较有趣的数据是，一般3-4月、9-10月是新挂牌房源的小高峰，早就成了一种定局，但是有意思的是，有些挂了很久还没有卖掉的"老房源"正在慢慢 的减少，是不是都卖了？ 不是！是很多房东自己主动撤牌了，他们之所以不想挂，原因其实不难理解。 有的挂了一半多不卖了，干脆直接下架观望一下；有的被中介或者身边人劝着以为"很快就会有回暖"…… 这种情绪，就叫"惜售情绪"，很像股市里"筹码被锁住了"的感觉，卖的人暂时不想卖，买的人在等。 再看需求端：买房的人气不爆，但也没断崖下跌，基本处于一个中间线，两边一对比，房源在减少，买家在犹豫，供需天平正在发生很微妙的倾斜。 市场还没热，但情绪已经在悄悄变化。 02、租售比2.47%，楼市触底了吗？ 咱们拿香港做一下参 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with the pressure of high - yield expectations gradually released. The cold weather in the Northeast reduced the difficulty of corn storage, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. However, the spot market was still under pressure due to factors such as concentrated supply in the production area and weak demand in the sales area [1]. - CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand in the US, but the domestic protein meal was weakly oscillatory. The domestic spot was loose, and the sufficient supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter suppressed the market [1]. - BMD palm oil rose despite weak demand from India. Domestic vegetable oils recovered with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic [1]. - Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - Pork futures continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The current market was in a supply - demand game. If the enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased and the slaughter volume could not absorb the excess supply, the price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn futures first fell and then rose. The spot price continued to decline, with the price in the Northeast and North China weakening. The sales area also saw a price drop. Technically, the pressure of high - yield expectations was released, and the cold weather made farmers reluctant to sell [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand. In China, the protein meal was weakly oscillatory, with a loose spot market and sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, and domestic vegetable oils recovered. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in international trade relations [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - **Pork**: This week, pork first stabilized and then fell. The spot price continued to decline, and the current market was in a supply - demand game. The price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Market Information - From October 1 - 15, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil all increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel plan for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026 [2]. - From October 5 - 11, Brazil exported 1,538,934 tons of soybeans, 266,768 tons of soybean meal, and 902,772 tons of corn. From October 12 - 18, it plans to export 2,153,936 tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1,889,800 tons of corn [3]. - Recently, international and domestic palm oil prices have oscillated downward, and the import price inversion of China's near - term palm oil shipments has slightly widened [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16][18][22]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading teams [26]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pork at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [26].