期货热点追踪 丰产预期抑制抄底买盘和空头回补，CBOT大豆价格能否站稳10关口？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that favorable weather conditions in the Midwest are positively impacting soybean growth, leading to a decline in CBOT soybean futures [1] - Analysts from StoneX predict an expectation of high yields for soybeans in the future, which could further influence soybean futures prices [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of high yield expectations in North America and a selling wave of Argentine soybeans, leading to a six-day decline in U.S. soybean futures [1] - It raises the question of whether there is still an opportunity for a rebound in soybean meal prices amidst these market conditions [1] Group 1 - North American high yield expectations are contributing to the downward pressure on U.S. soybean futures [1] - The selling trend of Argentine soybeans is intensifying, further affecting market dynamics [1] - U.S. soybean futures have experienced a consecutive six-day decline due to these factors [1] Group 2 - The article speculates on the potential for a rebound in soybean meal prices despite the current bearish sentiment in the soybean market [1]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 1.29%，报收 67.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.3%，报收 13465 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9626 手至 51.54 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14780 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 16 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14894 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 15 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面扰动持续，特朗普称以色列和伊朗已 | | | | 经同意全面停火，但伊朗尚未发布声明。美元指数盘中跳水，美棉价格拉升。国内 | | | | 市场方面，原油价格冲高回落，带动郑棉期价小幅回落，持续关注海外地缘冲突进 | | | | 展。基本面来看，当前国内陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，低库存支撑棉价。 | | | | 需求端驱动偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷环比小幅下降，库存水平在持续累积。展望未 | | | | 来，新棉丰产预期较强，棉花刚需仍在，但 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，新季美国大豆种植天气仍有变数和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千 点关口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震 荡回升，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位支撑盘面底部， 进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2860（华东），基差-74，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年同期62.31万吨， 同比减少80.47%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出 ...

Core Insights - The ICE raw sugar futures experienced significant declines, with the May contract's large delivery volume drawing attention [1] - The delivery volume for the May contract reached 1.48 million tons, which is substantially higher than the five-year average, indicating a relatively abundant supply of physical raw sugar [3][4] - Despite the high delivery volume, it remains below last year's peak of 1.67 million tons, suggesting a slight easing of supply pressure compared to the extreme conditions of the previous year [4] Delivery Data Interpretation - The delivery volume of 1.48 million tons is 356,000 tons higher than the five-year average, indicating strong supply conditions [4] - The data shows that 91.6% of the delivered raw sugar originated from Brazil, reaffirming Brazil's dominant position as the largest producer and exporter of raw sugar [5] - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 45.87 million tons, marking a historical high according to the national supply company [5] Market Impact and Outlook - The large physical delivery is typically seen as a bearish signal for sugar prices, as it indicates ample supply in the spot market [8] - Market expectations regarding Brazil's abundant harvest have likely been factored into pricing, which may limit the actual impact of the delivery volume on prices [9] - The delivery volume being lower than last year's peak may provide some relief to the market, preventing further extreme supply pressure [9] - Other sugar-producing countries' conditions, such as India and Thailand, will also play a crucial role in balancing the supply dynamics [10] - Macroeconomic factors, including global economic growth and inflation, will influence sugar price trends [10] - Speculative fund flows in the futures market can amplify or reverse price trends based on fundamental conditions [11] Summary - The delivery volume of 1.48 million tons for the ICE May raw sugar contract, predominantly sourced from Brazil, highlights the current supply landscape [12] - While the volume confirms strong supply conditions, its lower level compared to last year's peak complicates the direct impact on prices [12] - Future sugar price movements will depend on a combination of Brazil's production and export performance, conditions in other major producing regions, global demand changes, macroeconomic factors, and speculative activities [12]