Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract fell 29 to close at 1076.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.62%; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 47 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.55%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 3060 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.32%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 14 to close at 2411 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.58%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2500 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.81% [4][7] - The December USDA report had a neutral impact on the US soybean balance sheet. Argentina slightly lowered its soybean export tariff, which had a bearish impact on sentiment. The market still had concerns about US soybean export demand. The South American crop outlook was positive, leading to a decline in US soybeans. The state reserve released 512,500 tons of imported soybeans, with a transaction rate of 77.5%, indicating good trading. Market news suggested that the clearance time for imported soybeans was extended. There was an expected increase in stocking demand before the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, resulting in a short - term strong supply and a stronger near - month contract. Meanwhile, the good weather in the South American production areas strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest, and the far - month contract performed weakly, showing a differentiation of the near - strong and far - weak structure [4][7] - In the next two weeks, the precipitation conditions in the South American production areas will be good, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The concerns about US soybean exports still exist, and the sales progress is slow, so US soybeans will fluctuate weakly. In China, the soybean auction had good results, the clearance time for imported soybeans may be extended, and the stocking demand before the New Year's Day and Spring Festival is expected to gradually increase. Some oil mills may run out of soybeans and shut down in January, leading to a short - term tight supply. However, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America remains unchanged, and the near - strong and far - weak pattern will continue. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal 05 contract will fluctuate [4][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on December 12 was 1076.25 cents per bushel, down 29 from December 5, a decline of 2.62%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 490 dollars per ton, up 9 from December 5, an increase of 1.87%. The CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 491 dollars per ton, down 7 from December 5, a decline of 1.41%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 186.30 yuan per ton, up 115.55 from December 5. The DCE soybean meal price was 3083 yuan per ton, up 47 from December 5, an increase of 1.55%. The CZCE rapeseed meal price was 2411 yuan per ton, up 14 from December 5, an increase of 0.58%. The soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 672 yuan per ton, up 33 from December 5. The spot price in East China was 3080 yuan per ton, up 40 from December 5, an increase of 1.32%. The spot price in South China was 3060 yuan per ton, up 60 from December 5, an increase of 2.00%. The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 23 yuan per ton, up 13 from December 5 [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The December USDA report had a neutral impact. In the 2025/2026 US soybean season, the planting area and yield per unit were not adjusted. The export demand remained at 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 290 million bushels, the same as last month. The estimated soybean production in Brazil was 175 million tons, and that in Argentina was 48.5 million tons [8] - As of the week of November 13, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 696,000 tons, compared with 511,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 18.4 million tons, with a sales progress of 41.4%, compared with 61.9% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was - 100,000 tons, and the cumulative purchase volume was 364,000 tons [8] - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing was 2.45 dollars per bushel, down from 2.5 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 320.87 dollars per short ton, down from 324 dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.37 cents per pound, down from 51.99 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.95 dollars per bushel, down from 11.16 dollars per bushel in the previous week [9] - Conab reported that as of the week of December 5, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 90.3%, up from 86% in the previous week, compared with 94.1% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 89.8%. It is expected that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.1236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6431 million tons, or 3.3%. AgRural reported that as of the week of December 4, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season had reached 94%, up from 89% in the previous week, compared with 95% in the same period last year. AgRural maintained its estimate of Brazilian soybean production at 178.5 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in December would reach 3.33 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 2.81 million tons [10] - Argentina's economic minister said that the soybean export tax would be reduced from 26% to 24%, and the export tax on soybean by - products would be reduced from 24.5% to 22.5%. At the same time, the export taxes on wheat and barley would be reduced from 9.5% to 7.5%, and the export taxes on corn and sorghum would be reduced from 9.5% to 8.5%. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week of November 26, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 58.6%, up from 44.7% in the previous week, compared with 64.7% in the same period last year [11] - The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, there will be abundant precipitation in the Brazilian soybean production areas, which is conducive to crop growth and development. In Argentina, the precipitation in the next two weeks will be higher than the average, and the precipitation will increase compared with the previous period. The South American crops maintain the expectation of a bumper harvest [11] - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.1552 million tons, a decrease of 184,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.6849 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 481,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 6.3205 million tons, an increase of 2.4395 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3887 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.37 million tons, a decrease of 206,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.2749 million tons compared with the same period last year [11] - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in the country was 182,400 tons, including 61,100 tons of spot trading and 121,300 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the previous week was 140,300 tons. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 194,500 tons, compared with 184,300 tons in the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.0375 million tons, compared with 2.0558 million tons in the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.13 days, compared with 8.49 days in the previous week [12] Industry News - Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazilian soybean growers had basically completed the sowing of the 2025/26 season's crops, with about 91% of the farmland sown. Patria estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season would reach 171.89 million tons, lower than the estimates of other consulting companies and the government crop agency Conab, which were between 177 - 178 million tons [13] - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that farmers participating in the US crop subsidy program reported the areas of crops that could not be planted before December 1. The area of unplanted corn was 1.839 million acres, higher than the 1.837 million acres reported in September; the area of unplanted soybeans was 1.268 million acres, compared with 1.262 million acres in September; the area of unplanted wheat was 284,000 acres, basically the same as in September [13] - According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the export volume of Australian rapeseed in October was 62,708 tons, lower than 158,849 tons in September. In October, Japan was the largest export market, with an export volume of 57,293 tons, followed by Malaysia (1,951 tons) and Nepal (1,485 tons). The total export volume in that month was far lower than the 180,073 tons in October 2024. The EU Grain Chamber Coceral predicted that the rapeseed production in the EU and the UK in 2026 would be 21.8 million tons, the same as in 2025 [14] - The USDA's monthly crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons (237 million bushels), compared with 6.15 million short tons (205 million bushels) in September 2025 and 6.47 million short tons (216 million bushels) in October 2024. The US soybean oil production in October was 2.83 billion pounds, an 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024. The US rapeseed crushing volume in October 2025 was 192,578 short tons, compared with 230,362 short tons in September 2025 and 218,185 short tons in October 2024 [14] - According to data from the Argentine Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food, as of the week of December 3, Argentine farmers sold 415,600 tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 40.6516 million tons. As of December 3, the cumulative registered export sales volume of soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 12.163 million tons, and that in the 2025/26 season was 1.867 million tons [15] - According to Canada's Statistics Canada, the rapeseed production in Canada in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase to 21.8 million tons. According to ABARES, the rapeseed production in Australia in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.2 million tons, a 10% increase from analysts' previous estimates [15] - The IBGE agency estimated that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 47.691363 million hectares, the same as the previous month's estimate and a 3.6% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean production was 165.957783 million tons, the same as the previous month's estimate and a 14.5% increase from the previous year. The estimated agricultural product production in Brazil in 2026 was 218.017021 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the 2025 estimate of 216.346394 million tons. The estimated soybean production in Brazil in 2026 was 167.554994 million tons, a 1.0% increase from the 2025 estimate of 165.957783 million tons [16] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions, the M 1 - 5 month - spread of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the sowing progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unfulfilled contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [17][22][24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with the pressure of high - yield expectations gradually released. The cold weather in the Northeast reduced the difficulty of corn storage, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. However, the spot market was still under pressure due to factors such as concentrated supply in the production area and weak demand in the sales area [1]. - CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand in the US, but the domestic protein meal was weakly oscillatory. The domestic spot was loose, and the sufficient supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter suppressed the market [1]. - BMD palm oil rose despite weak demand from India. Domestic vegetable oils recovered with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic [1]. - Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - Pork futures continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The current market was in a supply - demand game. If the enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased and the slaughter volume could not absorb the excess supply, the price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn futures first fell and then rose. The spot price continued to decline, with the price in the Northeast and North China weakening. The sales area also saw a price drop. Technically, the pressure of high - yield expectations was released, and the cold weather made farmers reluctant to sell [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand. In China, the protein meal was weakly oscillatory, with a loose spot market and sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, and domestic vegetable oils recovered. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in international trade relations [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - **Pork**: This week, pork first stabilized and then fell. The spot price continued to decline, and the current market was in a supply - demand game. The price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Market Information - From October 1 - 15, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil all increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel plan for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026 [2]. - From October 5 - 11, Brazil exported 1,538,934 tons of soybeans, 266,768 tons of soybean meal, and 902,772 tons of corn. From October 12 - 18, it plans to export 2,153,936 tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1,889,800 tons of corn [3]. - Recently, international and domestic palm oil prices have oscillated downward, and the import price inversion of China's near - term palm oil shipments has slightly widened [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16][18][22]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading teams [26]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pork at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to close at 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to close at 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, a 0.79% increase [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by U.S. soybean oil. The exemption volume of biofuels for small refineries announced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was lower than expected, boosting the expected growth of biodiesel demand. Soybean meal fluctuated and declined during the week, mainly due to market news that imported reserve soybeans will be auctioned and released in November to ease the tight supply situation, leading to a reduction of long - position funds and a cooling of sentiment [4][7]. - The final report of the 2025 ProFarmer survey shows that since the number of soybean pods per unit sample in most production areas is higher than the same period last year, the expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels per acre, lower than the 53.6 bushels per acre in the August USDA report. The precipitation in mid - to late August was lower than the average, so attention should still be paid to weather changes and the adjustment of September report data. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal was diverted to other areas due to quality problems. There are expectations that imported reserve soybeans in China will be released in November, easing the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. However, short - term U.S. soybean purchases may be difficult to start, which supports the far - month contracts. After imposing policies on Canadian rapeseed imports, the import cost has increased. Last week, it was reported that COFCO restarted Australian rapeseed purchases since 2020, with a shipping date of November. Overall, short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 1 to 490 dollars per ton, a 0.20% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans rose 14 to 470 dollars per ton, a 3.07% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased 46.71 to - 63.99 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 46 to 545 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of soybean meal fell 20 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 0.66% decrease; the South China spot price of soybean meal fell 30 to 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 19 to - 138 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose due to the boost of U.S. soybean oil, while soybean meal fluctuated and declined due to the expected release of imported reserve soybeans in November [4][7]. - The ProFarmer survey shows high pod numbers in most U.S. soybean - producing areas, with a final yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA report. The U.S. soybean excellent - good rate as of August 17 was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. About 9% of the planting area was affected by drought as of August 19, and future precipitation is expected to be lower than average [8][9]. - As of August 14, the current - market - year net export sales of U.S. soybeans were - 0.6 million tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 season reached 51.06 million tons, completing the USDA target. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 1.143 million tons, with cumulative sales of 5.86 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [9]. - As of August 15, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.62 dollars per bushel, the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 287.98 dollars per short - ton, the soybean oil truck quote in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound, and the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.39 dollars per bushel [10]. - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.33 million tons [10]. - As of August 15, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 5.7562 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons. As of August 22, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 168,680 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 194,040 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.51 days [11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August reached 5.17167139 million tons, with a daily average export volume 29% higher than that of August last year [13]. - As of August 10, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to August 10, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 254,600 tons, a 33.6% decrease compared with the same period last year, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [13]. - The expansion of Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/2026 season will be the smallest in recent years. Analysts' forecasts for the planting area growth range from 1.2% to 2.9%, and the production forecasts range from 166.56 million tons to 178.2 million tons [14]. - Brazil's competition management agency plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan", and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters will appeal [15]. - Australia's rapeseed exports in June 2025 decreased significantly to 102,064 tons, and monthly exports are unlikely to exceed 150,000 tons before November [15]. - As of August 17, the EU's palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports in the 2025/2026 season decreased compared with last year [16]. - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reopen the Chinese market [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, ocean freight, RMB exchange rates, regional crushing profits, management funds' net positions in CBOT, soybean meal contract trends, regional soybean meal spot prices, etc. [18][20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The soybean futures market is experiencing fluctuations, influenced by various factors including favorable growing conditions for new season soybeans and weak demand from China [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main soybean futures are trading around 990 cents, with external market support lacking [1] - The latest report indicates that 69% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, the best level for this time of year in nearly five years [1] - Only 3% of the planting area is affected by drought, with soil moisture levels allowing for some flexibility [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - China has not initiated new season soybean purchases, maintaining a 23% tariff on imports, which contributes to weak demand for U.S. soybeans [1] - If no significant macroeconomic news emerges, the support level of 1000 cents may turn into a resistance level, with expectations of increased ending stocks for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic soybean meal prices are currently stronger than external prices, leading to a divergence in trends [1] - Recent transactions in domestic soybean meal exceeded 2 million tons in a single day, primarily for forward contracts, indicating concerns about future supply [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The USDA's upcoming report is anticipated to reveal potential bearish factors, with analysts projecting global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 127.42 million tons [1] - For the U.S. 2024/25 season, ending stocks are expected to be 347 million bushels, with a projected production of 4.365 billion bushels and a yield of 52.9 bushels per acre [1]

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract at 1025 cents. Due to good weather and a slightly bearish USDA report in July, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week and tested the previous low of 1000 cents again technically. Subsequently, positive news emerged. The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's purchase of $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, stimulating the expectation of new - season US soybean exports. However, CBOT soybeans are still expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with an unexpectedly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, 4% higher than the previous week and at a very high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to have no sustained improvement. [6] - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. Firstly, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have continued to rise, driving the bullish sentiment in the whole market. Secondly, the fundamental situation of soybean meal itself is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started to book ships for new - season US soybeans in the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. The price of CBOT soybeans has recovered this week, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the import cost has gradually risen. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The risk lies in whether the future Sino - US peace talks will bring good news, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3091, the lowest price was 3068, the closing price was 3087, with a rise of 17 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 292,691, the open interest was 1,155,465, and the open interest change was 8,587. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3060, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3046, the closing price was 3069, with a rise of 26 and a rise rate of 0.85%. The trading volume was 972,455, the open interest was 1,885,694, and the open interest change was - 21,481. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3098, the highest price was 3108, the lowest price was 3083, the closing price was 3105, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 150,810, the open interest was 632,481, and the open interest change was - 9,420. [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, and CBOT soybeans were affected by weather, USDA report, trade agreements, and China's purchasing situation. [6] - **Domestic Market Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong due to market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US relations. [6] 2. Industry News - **CFTC Position Report**: As of the week ending July 15, for CBOT soybeans, the long positions increased by 4,268 lots to 186,780 lots, and the short positions increased by 27,042 lots to 171,486 lots; for CBOT soybean oil, the long positions increased by 5,345 lots to 135,739 lots, and the short positions increased by 382 lots to 71,614 lots; for CBOT soybean meal, the long positions increased by 13,201 lots to 128,060 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,342 lots to 207,802 lots; for ICE rapeseed, the long positions decreased by 15,049 lots to 133,601 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,344 lots to 33,399 lots. [7] - **Rapeseed Growth Data**: As of the week ending July 16, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 60.65%. As of the week ending July 15, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 64.4%, up from 63.7% the previous week. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages, and the fungicide spraying work was still in progress. [9] 3. Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][17][14]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a bumper harvest is suppressing both bottom-fishing buying and short-covering in the soybean market, raising questions about whether CBOT soybean prices can stabilize above the $10 mark [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of high yields is impacting market dynamics, leading to reduced buying interest from investors looking to capitalize on lower prices [1] - Short-covering activities are also being restrained due to the prevailing outlook of abundant supply in the soybean market [1] - The critical price level of $10 for CBOT soybeans is under scrutiny as market participants assess the balance between supply expectations and demand [1]