Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil is expected to increase during the current pricing cycle, but the anticipated rise is limited due to fluctuating international crude oil prices and weak demand in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Changes - The reference crude oil change rate as of November 6 is 3.12%, indicating an expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 135 CNY per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 CNY per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] - After the price adjustment, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5.5 CNY for private car owners [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The recent trade discussions between China and the U.S. have improved market risk appetite, while tensions in South America have supported a temporary rise in crude oil prices [1] - However, increased production from Saudi Arabia and weakened demand in the U.S. have led to rising crude oil inventories, negatively impacting oil prices and resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the overall market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase significantly, marking the first "three consecutive increases" of the year, driven by fluctuations in international crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Predictions - The upcoming adjustment window for domestic refined oil retail prices is set for July 1, with predictions indicating an increase exceeding 50 yuan per ton [1]. - As of June 27, the reference crude oil price change rate was at 6%, suggesting an expected increase of 260 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1]. - The anticipated price increases for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel are 0.2 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.22 yuan per liter, respectively [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 12 rounds of retail price adjustments for refined oil, resulting in five increases, five decreases, and two instances of no change [2]. - Following the adjustments, the prices of gasoline and diesel per ton have decreased by 330 yuan and 315 yuan, respectively, compared to the end of last year [2]. Group 3: Adjustment Summary - A summary of the price adjustments since January 2025 shows various increases and decreases, with the most recent increase on June 17 resulting in 260 yuan for gasoline and 255 yuan for diesel [3]. - The cumulative price changes since the beginning of the year indicate a total decrease of 330 yuan for gasoline and 315 yuan for diesel [3].