卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至2月23日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第10个工作日，参考原 油的变化率为3.98%，预计汽油、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调175元、170元。折合成升价后，92号汽 油、95号汽油、0号柴油将分别上调0.14元、0.15元、0.14元。 隆众资讯成品油分析师李彦也表示，本轮国内成品油零售限价上调已无悬念，这将是2026年以来的第三 次上调。 2月24日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间点。机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况 预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价上调幅度远超50元/吨的调整红线要求，因此本轮成品油零售限价 大概率上调，这也意味着2026年成品油零售限价将迎来"三连涨"。 国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，国际原油价格整体走势偏强。受此影响，国内参考的原油变化率在正值 范围内不断扩大。卓创资讯成品油分析师许磊表示，国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，地缘紧张局势导致 风险溢价主导国际原油价格走势，国际原油价格一度创下近6个月以来新高。 许磊表示，若本轮成品油零售限价上调确认，国内成品油零售价格将实现"三连涨"，届时私家车单次加 满一箱50L的92号汽油将多花7元。 202 ...

责编:李文玉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 卓创资讯预计，本次成品油零售限价小幅上调已是大概率事件。按照目前的幅度计算，预计92#汽油和 0#柴油的涨幅在7分钱左右，加满一箱50L的92#汽油预计将多花3元左右。 【大河财立方消息】1月20日24时，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将开启。 卓创资讯认为，本计价周期以来，受中东地缘局势影响，国际原油价格先涨后跌，不过原油均值环比上 涨。受此影响，国内参考的原油变化率由负转正。1月20日24时，国内成品油零售限价或遇上调，消费 者用油成本或小幅增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil is expected to increase during the current pricing cycle, but the anticipated rise is limited due to fluctuating international crude oil prices and weak demand in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Changes - The reference crude oil change rate as of November 6 is 3.12%, indicating an expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 135 CNY per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 CNY per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] - After the price adjustment, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5.5 CNY for private car owners [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The recent trade discussions between China and the U.S. have improved market risk appetite, while tensions in South America have supported a temporary rise in crude oil prices [1] - However, increased production from Saudi Arabia and weakened demand in the U.S. have led to rising crude oil inventories, negatively impacting oil prices and resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the overall market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase significantly, marking the first "three consecutive increases" of the year, driven by fluctuations in international crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Predictions - The upcoming adjustment window for domestic refined oil retail prices is set for July 1, with predictions indicating an increase exceeding 50 yuan per ton [1]. - As of June 27, the reference crude oil price change rate was at 6%, suggesting an expected increase of 260 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1]. - The anticipated price increases for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel are 0.2 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.22 yuan per liter, respectively [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 12 rounds of retail price adjustments for refined oil, resulting in five increases, five decreases, and two instances of no change [2]. - Following the adjustments, the prices of gasoline and diesel per ton have decreased by 330 yuan and 315 yuan, respectively, compared to the end of last year [2]. Group 3: Adjustment Summary - A summary of the price adjustments since January 2025 shows various increases and decreases, with the most recent increase on June 17 resulting in 260 yuan for gasoline and 255 yuan for diesel [3]. - The cumulative price changes since the beginning of the year indicate a total decrease of 330 yuan for gasoline and 315 yuan for diesel [3].