1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Propylene futures, as the first monomer variety listed in the domestic energy - chemical industry chain, play an important role in hedging in the energy - chemical industry chain. Analyzing the delivery characteristics of East China, North China, and South China is crucial for establishing the pricing center of propylene [1][6]. - In terms of supply, from 2019 - 2024, domestic new propylene production capacity increased by 3043 million tons, with a total capacity growth of 75% and an average annual compound growth rate of 12%. As of 2024, the total domestic propylene production capacity reached 69.73 million tons, and the annual output reached 53.4 million tons. From 2025 - 2027, propylene production capacity will still be in a period of rapid release, mainly from PDH and cracking - made propylene [20]. - Regarding demand, the downstream derivatives of propylene have entered an over - capacity phase in the past three years, leading to losses in the downstream derivatives of propylene [32]. - Strategies recommended on the first listing day of propylene futures include: (1) Buying propylene 02 and shorting PP01; (2) Conducting a 1 - 2 short - spread on propylene; (3) Buying propylene 02 and shorting plastic 09 [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Contract Interpretation - **Trading Contract Interpretation**: On July 22, propylene futures and option contracts will be listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. The trading unit of propylene futures is 20 tons per lot, and the contract has a flexible delivery matching system, including futures - to - spot, warehouse standard warrant delivery, and factory warehouse standard warrant delivery. It also has a position - limit system [7][8][9]. - **Delivery Product Premium and Discount Analysis**: The benchmark delivery product of propylene futures is Type I propylene that meets relevant national standards, with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg. Alternative delivery products with a water content of 20mg/kg < water content ≤ 50mg/kg are subject to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Most propylene from different production processes meets the water - content requirements of the benchmark delivery product, while FCC propylene generally meets the requirements of alternative delivery products [9][13]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Analysis**: Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Shandong have a premium and discount of 0 yuan/ton; Fujian and Guangdong have a discount of 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin has a discount of 120 yuan/ton; Hebei has a discount of 160 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has a discount of 300 yuan/ton. Short - distance transportation within the region is common, and cross - regional transportation has high costs, which will bring additional selling pressure during the cancellation month [2][14][15]. - **Delivery Warehouse Analysis**: A total of 15 delivery warehouses are announced, including 2 delivery warehouses and 13 delivery factory warehouses. The storage fees for delivery warehouses and delivery factory warehouses are 5 yuan/ton/day and 4 yuan/ton/day respectively [16]. 3.2 Propylene Fundamental Analysis - **Propylene Supply**: From 2019 - 2024, domestic new propylene production capacity increased significantly, but the effective operating rate has been declining year by year. From 2025 - 2027, production capacity will continue to be released, and propylene pricing follows a cost - based logic [20][24]. - **Propylene Demand**: Downstream derivatives of propylene are in an over - capacity situation, leading to losses. In terms of downstream pricing influence, polypropylene powder has the largest proportion in the circulation and external procurement demand, and the marginal changes in propylene demand can be tracked by focusing on the price influence of polypropylene powder on propylene and the regional external procurement demand of propylene oxide and acrylic acid [32][35]. - **Propylene Balance Sheet**: The national balance sheet explores the structural contradictions of propylene, but it is difficult to observe structural contradictions on a monthly basis. The balance sheet of Shandong, the mainstream trading area, has a direct guiding significance for the market, and it can be used to characterize the relaxation or tightening of the dynamic supply and demand in Shandong [36][38]. 3.3 Propylene Strategy on the First Listing Day - **Propylene Logic Chain**: There are four types of propylene logics, including the monomer strength - weakness logic, the PO/SM logic of propylene oxide, the profit logic of acrylonitrile for ABS, and the marginal pricing effect of acrylonitrile and butanol - octanol on methanol [43]. - **Arbitrage Strategies** - **Industrial Chain Profit Fluctuation**: The loss - tolerance of the polypropylene powder industry has decreased, and the adjustment flexibility of downstream loads has increased. The recommended strategy is to buy 02 propylene and short 01PP, and if the opening price reaches the expected level, consider buying 01PP and shorting 01 propylene [47][48]. - **Spread + Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - PX Variant**: The spread of propylene mainly reflects the delivery friction cost and holding cost. It is recommended to conduct a short - spread on propylene 1 - 2 when the spread is high [49][51]. - **Extension of Monomer Olefin Hedging**: After the listing of propylene, it can provide more arbitrage options. It is recommended to expand the spread between PP and plastic, and buy propylene 02 and short plastic 09 [52][53]. - **Intuitive Expression of Aromatic - Olefin Logic**: With the listing of propylene, the strategy expression of aromatic - olefin can more intuitively reflect the strength and weakness between aromatics and olefins [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In Q1, PX entered a inventory accumulation cycle due to stable operation of domestic PX plants, relatively stable imports, and frequent planned and unplanned maintenance of PTA plants. In Q2, Asian PX plants will have a concentrated maintenance period, with supply expected to decline significantly and shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. PX prices will recover, depending on the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - PTA prices declined due to weak crude oil, increased production cuts by downstream polyester plants, and a lack of market confidence. Although some previously maintained plants will resume production, the operating load may still decline. PTA may continue to deplete inventory from April to May, which will support prices [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market declined, with supply - side price cuts following weak PTA and futures, and cautious downstream purchasing. The cost - pricing logic will continue in the short term [2]. - After overnight crude oil prices rose, it is expected that PX will run strongly, PTA will run strongly, and PR will run oscillating [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Price Information - **Upstream**: On March 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $71.48/barrel, up 3.06% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $74.74/barrel, up 1.51%. On March 28, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $646/ton, up 0.43% [1]. - **PX**: On March 31, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,858 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; settlement price was 6,860 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. On March 28, the domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,823 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [1]. - **PTA**: On March 31, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,842 yuan/ton, down 1.06%; settlement price was 4,854 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,896 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [1]. - **PR**: On March 31, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,026 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 6,032 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. In the East China market, the market price of polyester bottle - chips was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 0.66%; in the South China market, it was 6,070 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On March 31, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,740 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; polyester chips was 6,030 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [2]. Operating Conditions - On March 31, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 76.42%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 80.87%, unchanged; polyester plants was 87.92%, down 0.11%; bottle - chip plants was 71.04%, down 0.47%; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.21%, unchanged [1]. - On March 31, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 54.00%, up 11.00%; polyester staple fiber was 70.00%, down 44.00%; polyester chips was 43.00%, down 8.00% [1]. Device Information - A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China, originally planned for maintenance and technological transformation on April 5, has postponed the plan to late April, and the specific situation is to be determined [2]. - A 1.5 - million - ton PX plant in Huizhou is about to enter the shutdown and maintenance process [2].