Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range. The support logic at the ore end is weakening, and the smelting logic restricts the price elasticity. The global refined nickel inventory is gradually increasing, which puts downward pressure on nickel prices. In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to drop significantly, but there is also an upper limit. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, which slightly boosts the upside space of nickel prices, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals lack obvious contradictions, and the price movement is mainly influenced by the macro - sentiment of the sector. There are also some uncertainties in the news, such as Indonesia's possible adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and the APNI's proposal to re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula [1]. - In the stainless - steel market, the tug - of - war between bulls and bears is intensifying, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The bulls focus on the decline in high - level inventories and potential supply - side production cuts, while the bears are concerned about the actual supply - demand situation, such as the profit from warehousing and the still - high inventory levels. Overall, steel prices are likely to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting logic restricts price fluctuations. The global refined nickel inventory is gradually rising, which suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, it's hard for nickel prices to fall sharply, but there is an upper ceiling. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upside potential of nickel prices, but the increase is limited. The news about Indonesia's possible adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and the APNI's proposal to re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula adds uncertainties [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: The bulls are concerned about the decline in high - level inventories and potential supply - side production cuts, such as the maintenance of a Shandong steel mill and the phased production cuts in Guangxi. The bears focus on the actual supply - demand situation, including the profit from warehousing and the still - high inventory levels. Overall, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory down 573 tons to 21,374 tons, spot inventory up 437 tons to 12,014 tons, and bonded area inventory down 400 tons to 5,190 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. - The ferronickel inventory at the end of July was 33,415 tons, a 10% decrease month - on - month but a 56% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is still relatively high but has slightly eased [5]. - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, a 0.44% decrease week - on - week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 622,713 tons, a 0.69% decrease week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 483,591 tons, a 0.11% decrease week - on - week [5]. - The nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 389,800 wet tons to 10,333,400 wet tons, with Philippine nickel ore accounting for 10,092,000 wet tons. By grade, low - nickel and high - iron ore was 5,400,000 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,933,400 wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire industrial park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel - ore miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial parks have suspended the production of all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel production by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - Due to capacity restrictions, a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils, suspending the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 compared to T - 1, up 1,410 compared to T - 5, down 3,180 compared to T - 10, up 2,040 compared to T - 22, and down 2,450 compared to T - 66 [9]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 compared to T - 1, up 145 compared to T - 5, down 45 compared to T - 10, up 215 compared to T - 22, and up 280 compared to T - 66 [9]. - Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads are also presented in the table, showing the price changes and market conditions of nickel and stainless - steel - related products over different time periods [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].