岁末年初，俄乌冲突相关各方动态频繁，美欧乌持续推进和平进程磋商并探讨安全保障事宜，乌克兰总 统泽连斯基发表新年致辞亮明和平底线，而俄罗斯则披露乌克兰袭击俄总统官邸细节，同时宣布调整谈 判立场，总统普京发表新年贺词显示作战决心，俄乌局势呈现复杂博弈态势。 威特科夫表示，与会方重点讨论如何"以务实的方式"推进关于俄乌和平进程的讨论，包括强化对乌安全 保障和建立有效的冲突化解机制，以帮助结束俄乌冲突并确保战事不会再次爆发。与会方还讨论了乌克 兰战后重建问题。 俄空天军防空导弹部队司令亚历山大·罗曼年科夫在发布会上表示，所有乌无人机在布良斯克州、斯摩 棱斯克州和诺夫哥罗德州上空被俄军击落。俄总统官邸未受破坏。此次袭击的布局、所用武器的数量， 以及他们从多个方向向诺夫哥罗德州的总统官邸发起的行动，表明乌克兰的袭击是有针对性的、精心策 划的、多层次的。 2025年11月23日，在瑞士日内瓦美国常驻联合国日内瓦办事处代表团驻地，美国国务卿鲁比奥（右）在 记者会上发言 美国总统特使威特科夫2025年12月31日在社交媒体上宣布，他当天同英法德三国领导人的国安顾问以及 乌克兰谈判代表举行电话会议，讨论推进俄乌和平进程的"后续步 ...

Group 1 - The core breakthrough of the peace agreement involves a shift from territorial deadlock to security guarantees, with key terms revised to focus on practical aspects like ceasefire and prisoner exchanges while postponing core disputes over territory and NATO membership [2][21] - Ukraine has accepted a collective defense commitment similar to NATO's Article 5 from the US and Europe, while excluding direct NATO membership, and the limit on the Ukrainian military size has been increased from 600,000 to 800,000, maintaining defense autonomy [2][21] Group 2 - The US is leading a transactional diplomacy approach, exchanging security guarantees for Ukrainian concessions, particularly targeting the development rights of Ukrainian mineral resources, with 50% of the reconstruction fund's revenue allocated to the US [3][22] - Europe is participating passively, with Germany, France, and the UK proposing a modified peace plan emphasizing that territorial issues should be decided by a national referendum in Ukraine, attempting to weaken US unilateral dominance [3][22] Group 3 - Ukraine's compromise is driven by dual pressures of military and economic exhaustion, with Russia controlling 120,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory (20% of the country), highlighting vulnerabilities in Ukraine's defense system [4][24] - The infrastructure in Ukraine has suffered systemic damage, necessitating a comprehensive ceasefire to ensure wartime elections, forcing Ukraine to trade resources for security [5][25] Group 4 - The US has a strategic interest in key minerals, with Ukraine's lithium and titanium reserves ranking among the top globally, and the mineral agreement stipulates that 50% of future mineral revenues will fund the US-led reconstruction efforts to offset military aid costs [6][26] Group 5 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a tripartite balance among the US, Russia, and Europe, with the US prioritizing resource control through security agreements that bind Ukraine's mineral development rights, thereby diminishing Europe's economic influence in Ukraine [7][27] - There is a tacit agreement between the US and Russia, allowing Russia to maintain control over eastern Ukraine in exchange for halting further advances, which reduces US strategic investments [8][28] Group 6 - Europe faces a dilemma of marginalization, losing security discourse power, as Germany and France push for the "Eastern Sentinel" initiative to strengthen eastern defense but cannot prevent direct negotiations between the US and Russia [9][29] - The competition for resources is intensifying, with the EU submitting a mineral cooperation agreement to compete with the US for dominance over Ukrainian lithium and titanium [10][30] Group 7 - Investment opportunities arise from the urgent need for reconstruction in Ukraine's energy and transportation infrastructure, with international engineering firms like China Power Construction (601669) and China Communications Construction (601800) likely to secure contracts [11][31] - The repair of the electrical grid and construction of natural gas pipelines will drive equipment exports from companies like XJ Electric (000400) and Beiken Energy (002828) [12][32] Group 8 - The development of lithium mines in Ukraine will benefit battery manufacturers like CATL (300750) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) as they diversify their supply chains, while titanium processing will attract attention to Baotai Co. (600456) [13][33] - The restoration of the Black Sea grain corridor will benefit agricultural trade, reducing import costs for companies like COFCO Corporation (600737) and Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) [14][34] Group 9 - The peace agreement signals the start of a post-war reconstruction cycle, presenting structural opportunities in infrastructure, minerals, and agriculture, with investors needing to monitor the progress of the agreement and the dynamics of US-European resource competition [20][38]

第二份文件聚焦于安全保障议题。泽连斯基表示，正在等待乌军方提出相应建议，并与美国军方开展对 话。此外，这些建议还需与'志愿联盟'的基本原则进行整合。他同时表示，鉴于议题的敏感性，目前不 便透露更多细节，但承诺相关磋商工作终将形成实质性成果。泽连斯基强调，这份安全保障协议是乌方 分别与美国、欧洲伙伴构建安全协作体系的关键文件，对乌后续安全格局意义重大。 第三份文件着眼于战后重建规划。泽连斯基明确，该文件对应的重建计划具备极强的时效性，需在冲突 结束或停火达成后立即启动实施。他同时证实，现阶段相关方面已在加紧推进文件的制定工作。 当地时间9日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在接受采访时表示，乌方当前正与合作伙伴就三份核心文件展开磋 商，文件内容分别涉及框架性约定、安全保障以及战后重建三大领域。 泽连斯基首先确认了磋商文件的基本范畴，他说："乌克兰正在与美国及欧洲方面就三份文件进行磋 商。" 据悉，首份框架性文件包含20项条款。泽连斯基表示，这份文件并非固定模板，将结合实际情况动态调 整，且条款设定必须兼顾乌克兰、欧洲乃至全球的共同利益。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing diplomatic efforts surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation are creating opportunities for the infrastructure sector, particularly in post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, which is projected to require $486.2 billion over the next decade [4][13] - Chinese companies, particularly those with established operations in Ukraine, are well-positioned to participate in reconstruction efforts due to their competitive advantages in execution efficiency, cost control, and comprehensive industry chain support [4][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.56%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% during the week. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index increased by 2.81%, with all sub-sectors except housing construction showing gains, particularly landscape engineering, engineering consulting, and other specialized engineering [5][23] Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week amounted to CNY 273.83 billion, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 7,505.01 billion as of November 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.99% [6][28] - Urban investment bonds issued this week totaled CNY 55.05 billion, with a cumulative net financing of -CNY 545.48 billion as of November 30, 2025 [6][28] Company Dynamics - Notable project announcements include: - Tongji Technology won a bid for a project in Xi'an worth approximately CNY 866 million [18] - China Construction secured three major projects totaling CNY 10.67 billion [18] - China Aluminum International won a bid for a project valued at approximately CNY 2.909 billion [18] Industry News - Hunan Province reported significant achievements in transportation construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a total investment of CNY 538.6 billion, a 54% increase compared to the previous five years [15] - Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes housing supply and the development of a new real estate model, focusing on a "market + guarantee" housing supply system [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Syrian transitional government is prioritizing post-war infrastructure reconstruction and the restoration of economic and financial order following a recent meeting led by Ahmad Sharrah [1] Group 1: Meeting Highlights - The meeting was held on April 7, with a focus on the initial work plans from various departments within the transitional government [1] - Ahmad Sharrah emphasized the importance of submitting comprehensive work plans in the next meeting [1] - There is a directive for departments to expedite the completion of a comprehensive reorganization [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall impact of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy is expected to be minimal due to the low GDP and export shares of both countries [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely conclude this year, leading to increased focus on post-war reconstruction and its implications for global commodity and financial markets [1]. - It highlights that Russia's economy has become increasingly reliant on energy exports due to the war, with significant changes in export structures and market dynamics [5][9]. - The report suggests that while short-term energy prices have not yet reflected recent developments, mid-term prices may face downward pressure as Russia resumes pre-conflict export levels [19][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Impact on Global Economy - Russia's GDP in 2023 is projected at $6.45 trillion, accounting for 3.51% of global GDP, while Ukraine's GDP is only $622 million, representing 0.34% [2]. - The export totals for Russia and Ukraine are $424.22 billion (1.78% of global exports) and $36.04 billion (0.15% of global exports) respectively, indicating limited global economic influence [2]. 2. Impact on Global Energy Prices - In 2022, Russia's mineral fuels and oils exports totaled $358.02 billion, making up 61% of its total exports, a significant increase from 2021 [5]. - Russia's share of global oil exports in 2023 is 10.5%, ranking second globally, while its natural gas exports accounted for 2.16% in 2021, ranking tenth [9][13]. - The report notes a substantial decrease in the EU's dependency on Russian oil and gas, with Russian oil imports dropping from 25.7% in 2020 to 3.37% in 2023 [15]. 3. Impact on Global Grain and Oilseed Prices - Ukraine's grain exports in 2023 are estimated at $8.306 billion, down 30% from 2021, while oilseed exports are at $5.648 billion, down 18% [23]. - The report indicates that Ukraine's share of global grain exports was 8.53% before the conflict, ranking second globally, but is expected to face challenges in recovery post-war [24]. - It predicts that as Ukraine gradually restores agricultural production, there will be significant potential for increased exports of grains and oilseeds in the mid-term [25]. 4. Impact on Global Financial Markets - The report notes a strong performance in European and Russian financial markets following the expectation of conflict resolution, with the Russian RTS index rising over 16% [35]. - It anticipates further appreciation of the ruble and euro, while the US dollar index may face downward pressure, potentially dropping to 105 [40].