Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US tariff negotiations, highlighting the complexities and ongoing challenges between the US and a major trading partner, referred to as "东大" (East Big) [1] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The US has established "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for various countries, with Syria facing the highest rate of 41% and Brazil and the UK the lowest at 10% [1] - Most countries, including Japan, South Korea, and the EU, have a tariff rate set at 15%, while Vietnam's rate is 20% [1] First Negotiation - The first negotiation occurred in May, prompted by a significant rise in US Treasury yields following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which led to fears of a market crash [2][3] - The US Treasury yield for 10-year bonds surged from 3.99% to 4.6%, and 30-year yields exceeded 5%, increasing interest expenses by over $180 billion in a short period [2] Second Negotiation - The second negotiation in June focused on rare earth exports, resulting in the US pausing chip export controls to China while China relaxed restrictions on civilian rare earth exports [4] - This negotiation was crucial for the US, which relies heavily on rare earth materials from East Big [4] Ongoing Challenges - The US faces two significant vulnerabilities: the risk in the Treasury market and insufficient strategic resource reserves, particularly rare earths [5] - Both countries are reluctant to fully decouple but also unwilling to make significant concessions, leading to a prolonged negotiation process [6][7] Future Outlook - The next three months will involve both parties reassessing their negotiation strategies and preparing for potential economic impacts of a complete decoupling [7] - The US may consider interest rate cuts to alleviate Treasury market pressures, while East Big will focus on stimulating domestic demand [8] Economic Implications - The potential for US interest rate cuts could influence global asset prices, impacting non-dollar assets and safe-haven investments [8] - The article suggests that the outcome of these negotiations and economic strategies will shape the global capital market landscape in the coming months [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights China's strategic move to purchase 100,000 tons of high-purity nickel amidst a 40% drop in international nickel prices, aiming to bolster its military industrial capacity for the next three years [1][4] - The collaboration between China and Russia is seen as a counteraction against Western technology blockades, with China leveraging strategic reserves and alliances to break through these barriers [1][2] - China's military industrial sector has significantly advanced, with the development of indigenous technologies such as the WS-15 engine for the J-20B fighter jet, showcasing a departure from reliance on Russian technology [2][6] Group 2 - The acquisition of nickel is part of a broader strategy to secure essential resources, as 67% of global nickel mines are located in Indonesia, and potential supply disruptions could arise from geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The integration of civilian and military production capabilities allows for rapid adaptation of manufacturing lines, enabling companies to switch from consumer goods to military hardware efficiently [7] - China's military production capacity has surpassed that of the U.S., with an annual output of 240 fighter jets, indicating a significant shift in the global military manufacturing landscape [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses a large-scale "supermarket rush" where countries are stockpiling strategic resources, with China being a significant player in this trend [1][3] - China has reportedly purchased over 100,000 tons of nickel, referred to as "industrial MSG," which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries and advanced aircraft engines [3][5] - The urgency for China to stockpile resources stems from a perceived risk of future supply disruptions, prompting a proactive approach to securing essential materials [3][10] Group 2 - European countries are also reacting to China's actions by seeking to secure their own strategic resources, particularly rare earth elements, which are vital for high-tech industries [5][7] - The European Union is pushing for unity to establish its own reserves of rare earth elements to avoid dependency on external suppliers [7][9] - The competition for these resources is framed as a "kitchen war," highlighting the geopolitical tensions surrounding resource acquisition [9][10] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the dynamics of resource trading are not based on fair transactions, as there are underlying power imbalances and historical grievances influencing current negotiations [10][11] - China is determined to protect its resources and is unwilling to sell them at low prices, reflecting a shift in strategy towards valuing its strategic assets [11][14] - The ongoing stockpiling efforts are seen as a preparation for potential future challenges, with the aim of ensuring stability and security for the nation [15][17]

2024年国内钨矿产量约8.85万吨，同比-7.77%，约占全球的83%，国内钨矿资源相对集中，矿山企业的 议价能力较强，在矿石品位逐渐下降，环保趋严的背景下，矿山产出预计将受限，目前国内钨矿新建项 目也很难在短期内释放产能，海外矿山成本较高，进口方面也难有大的增量，对钨矿价格形成有力支 撑。 战略资源储备需要、叠加制造业回暖提振需求 钨因其高硬度、高强度和良好的耐磨性等特点在军事，航空航天，电子工业等制造领域有着广泛的应 用，随着全球地缘政治不确定性加大，钨的战略资源地位将日益凸显。同时在国内政策刺激下、制造业 或逐步回暖，3月份国内制造业PMI指数环比+0.3pct至50.5%，需求不断改善下，板块相关标的或受益。 25年第一批钨矿开采指标收紧，继续向大中型钨资源量矿山倾斜 2024年起国家对于共伴生钨资源量为小型的矿山，不再下达开采总量控制指标、但矿企应报备钨矿产 量;2025年度钨矿开采总量控制指标(第一批)为5.8万吨(含65%WO3)，比24年的第一批指标下降4000吨、 约6.45%。以往量小的省份-黑龙江、浙江、安徽、湖北没有获得指标(24年第一批四省共计约720吨)。 对于大中型的共伴生钨矿 ...