Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US tariff negotiations, highlighting the complexities and ongoing challenges between the US and a major trading partner, referred to as "东大" (East Big) [1] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The US has established "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for various countries, with Syria facing the highest rate of 41% and Brazil and the UK the lowest at 10% [1] - Most countries, including Japan, South Korea, and the EU, have a tariff rate set at 15%, while Vietnam's rate is 20% [1] First Negotiation - The first negotiation occurred in May, prompted by a significant rise in US Treasury yields following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which led to fears of a market crash [2][3] - The US Treasury yield for 10-year bonds surged from 3.99% to 4.6%, and 30-year yields exceeded 5%, increasing interest expenses by over $180 billion in a short period [2] Second Negotiation - The second negotiation in June focused on rare earth exports, resulting in the US pausing chip export controls to China while China relaxed restrictions on civilian rare earth exports [4] - This negotiation was crucial for the US, which relies heavily on rare earth materials from East Big [4] Ongoing Challenges - The US faces two significant vulnerabilities: the risk in the Treasury market and insufficient strategic resource reserves, particularly rare earths [5] - Both countries are reluctant to fully decouple but also unwilling to make significant concessions, leading to a prolonged negotiation process [6][7] Future Outlook - The next three months will involve both parties reassessing their negotiation strategies and preparing for potential economic impacts of a complete decoupling [7] - The US may consider interest rate cuts to alleviate Treasury market pressures, while East Big will focus on stimulating domestic demand [8] Economic Implications - The potential for US interest rate cuts could influence global asset prices, impacting non-dollar assets and safe-haven investments [8] - The article suggests that the outcome of these negotiations and economic strategies will shape the global capital market landscape in the coming months [9]

美国财政部最新数据显示，2025年3月，中国减持了189亿美元美债，持仓规模降至7654亿美元，这是中国今年首次减持，同时英国增持，以微弱优势反超， 成为美国第二大海外债主，而日本依然以1.13万亿美元的持仓稳坐头把交椅。 5月16日，特朗普手上握着几千万的订单结束了此次的中东之旅，采访过程中不仅多次提到中国，还直言"愿意飞往北京"访问，画风变得太快，让人不仅想 起之前他放出的豪言壮语。 而就在特朗普向中国示好的同一天，美国财政部爆出猛料，中国3月份大幅减持美债，如今英国已经取代中国成为美国的第二大债主了。消息一出，估计特 朗普的脸面都挂不住了。 虽说两国已经发布了经贸联合声明，但同时也都保留了一手，当下不论是中国减持美债，还是特朗普的公开表态，都让现在的局面变得有些微妙。 这事儿背后可不简单，近年来，随着美国债务规模飙升至36.21万亿美元，市场对美债的担忧与日俱增，特别是在特朗普政府推出巨额关税后，美债市场更 是动荡不安。 | Japan | | | --- | --- | | United Kingdom | | | China. Mainland | | | Cayman Islands | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by continuous money printing by central banks and the inherent value of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [3][21][57]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - From December 1990 to June 2025, gold prices increased from $388 to $3452.60 per ounce, representing a total increase of 789.85% over 34.51 years, with an annualized return of 6.54% [4]. - Gold experienced two significant drawdowns: a maximum drawdown of -39.12% from February 1996 to July 1999 and -44.36% from September 2011 to December 2015 [7][10]. - After each major drawdown, gold prices eventually reached new highs, indicating resilience in the long-term trend [8]. Group 2: Recent Trends in Gold Prices - From July 2015 to June 2025, gold prices rose by 228.76%, continuing an upward trend for 9.5 years [14]. - Since January 2024, gold prices have increased by 66.65%, from $2071.8 to $3452.60 [18]. - In 2024, gold prices rose by 27.39%, and in 2025, they have already increased by 30.81% [21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is often negative, with periods of both strong and weak correlation observed [22]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, US debt creditworthiness, economic recession risks, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and demand for gold in jewelry and industrial applications [24][26][29][30]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with notable purchases from countries like Poland and China [41][44]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential impact of US debt ceiling negotiations on market stability and gold prices, highlighting the risks associated with political gridlock [38][40]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to support long-term price increases, as seen in recent data showing significant purchases [41][46]. - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with the expectation that even if short-term fluctuations occur, the long-term upward trajectory will prevail [57].