1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The supply of overseas copper mines is facing increased disruptions, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias due to support from the strategic resource demand and value, as well as the tight supply of copper mines. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [3][4]. - Aluminum: Although the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is accumulating, and high prices are suppressing downstream demand, the relatively low LME aluminum inventory and high US aluminum spot premiums provide strong support. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Lead: The current industrial situation of lead is weak, but due to the impact of winter cooling on the transportation of waste batteries, the raw materials for secondary smelting are tightening, and it is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [9][10]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but due to the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices and the suspension of a zinc - mine development project in Bolivia, combined with the current low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios, zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [11][12]. - Tin: In the short term, the capital game in the futures market determines the trend of tin prices. Against the background of a strong trend in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, tin prices are expected to be mainly strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Nickel: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not continuously reflected in the explicit inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, but due to the increase in profit - taking orders and large fluctuations in the commodity market, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Although the demand is relatively average, due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to have strong support [28]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: Overseas copper - mine supply disruptions increased, LME copper 3M rose to a maximum of 14,527 dollars/ton and closed up 4.46% at 13,705 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 106,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,150 tons to 176,075 tons, and the domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory decreased slightly. The spot discount in Shanghai was 170 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 235 yuan/ton. The spot import loss of SHFE copper narrowed to near the break - even point, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.92% at 3,233 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,935 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum - rod inventory increased by about 12,000 tons. The LME aluminum - ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 498,000 tons [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 1.13% at 17,208 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 20.5 dollars to 2,046 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead - ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton. The domestic lead - ingot social inventory increased by 3,500 tons to 38,400 tons on January 29th [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial situation of lead is weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.42% at 25,979 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 48.5 dollars to 3,461.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc - ingot average price was 25,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc - ingot social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 107,400 tons on January 29th [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the tin price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 446,130 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the downstream inventory is generally low, with a concentrated release of rigid - demand restocking demand after the tin - price decline last week. The national main - market tin - ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons on January 23rd, an increase of 365 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the nickel price fluctuated, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot - market premium of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore and the price of nickel iron remained stable [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: SHFE nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium - carbonate spot index closed at 164,501 yuan, down 2.56%. The lithium - carbonate futures rose and then fell, and the LC2605 contract closed at 164,820 yuan, down 0.88%. The SMM weekly inventory was 107,482 tons, down 1,414 tons [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the alumina index rose 0.21% to 2,814 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 261 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 304 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 161,500 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.83%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends, and the raw - material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons on January 23rd, a 2.91% increase [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upward, and the main AD2603 contract closed up 0.27% at 23,850 yuan/ton. The weighted - contract position increased, and the volume remained high. The domestic mainstream - market inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is expected to have strong support [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive sentiment and tight supply at the mine end, despite the increase in global visible inventories [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate strongly, supported by relatively low LME inventories and high US aluminum spot premiums, along with loose policies and new highs in precious metals [6][7]. - The surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally as the supply of recycled smelting raw materials tightens in winter, although the current industry situation is weak [8][9]. - The zinc industry remains weak, and the trading focus of SHFE zinc may shift from strong macro - factors to weak reality during the upcoming period of market consolidation [10][11]. - Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, mainly determined by capital games on the futures market, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but there are callback risks, and it is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts [17][18]. - Alumina prices may face difficulties in continuous rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [20][21]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to move up, but with high volatility, and the risk of callbacks should be watched out for [23][24]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to strong cost support and supply - side disturbances [26][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, LME 3M copper closed up 2.25% to $13,128/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 3,450 to 171,700 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. The Cash/3M was at a discount of $66.1/ton. Domestic SHFE weekly inventories increased by 15,000 to 226,000 tons, and daily warrants increased by 4,000 to 147,000 tons. The Shanghai spot was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the futures, and the Guangdong spot was at a discount of 135 yuan/ton to the futures. The SHFE copper spot import loss narrowed to around 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened slightly [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With the easing of US - EU relations, loose domestic policies, and new highs in precious metals, sentiment is positive. The copper mine supply remains tight, and short - term supply disturbances at the mine end have increased. Although global visible inventories continue to rise, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M copper, it is $12,800 - 13,400/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - Precious metals hit new highs. On Friday, aluminum prices strengthened. LME aluminum closed up 1.15% to $3,173.5/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum's weighted contract increased by 15,000 to 725,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 2,000 to 141,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventories decreased, and aluminum rod inventories changed little. The aluminum rod processing fee was lowered, and market trading was poor. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures. LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 2,000 to 507,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M discount narrowed [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, but it is not a major negative for prices in the off - season. LME aluminum has concentrated deliveries, but inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high. With loose policies at home and abroad and new highs in precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 24,100 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is $3,130 - 3,220/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.23% to 17,106 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 103,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME 3S lead fell $6 to $2,026/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 167,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventories were 28,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventories were 218,400 tons, and LME lead ingot cancellation warrants were 31,400 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.219, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 201.44 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19 [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the visible lead ore inventory has further increased and is higher than the same period in previous years, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary production has declined slightly but remains at a high level, the recycled smelting operating rate has increased marginally, and the finished product inventories of primary and recycled smelting plants and the social inventory of lead ingots have both increased. However, due to the difficulty in transporting waste batteries in winter, the supply of recycled smelting raw materials has tightened, and the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [9]. Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.77% to 24,600 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 223,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME 3S zinc rose $40 to $3,239/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 228,800 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,620 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 25 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventories were 30,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 40 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME zinc ingot inventories were 111,700 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancellation warrants were 8,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 36.66 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 26.62 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.095, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,051.57 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible zinc ore inventory has increased marginally, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Zinc smelting profits have slightly recovered, and the decline in domestic zinc ingot social inventories has slowed down. After the repair of the SHFE - LME price ratio, the outflow of zinc has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data released on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the dual - loose policy has not been reflected in economic data. Before the next round of economic data is released, the non - ferrous sector may enter a period of consolidation, and the trading focus of SHFE zinc may shift from strong macro - factors to weak reality [11]. Tin Market Information - On January 23, tin prices rose strongly. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 428,740 yuan/ton, up 4.82% from the previous day. LME inventories were reported at 7,195 tons, an increase of 50 tons from the previous day. SHFE inventories were reported at 8,582 tons, a decrease of 34 tons from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, while in Jiangxi, refined tin production was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two - place smelters recovered from maintenance. There were constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream, so short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the decline in tin prices last week, the demand for rigid - demand restocking was concentratedly released. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the tin price trend is determined by capital games on the futures market. Against the backdrop of a strong trend in precious metals and the non - ferrous sector, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $52,000 - 58,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On January 23, nickel prices rose significantly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 148,010 yuan/ton, up 3.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 8,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of ferronickel, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,042.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 9 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in visible inventories in the short term. With the expectation of a reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia, SHFE nickel is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M nickel contracts, it is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - Last Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 174,830 yuan in the evening session, up 5.51% from the previous working day and 17.59% for the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 173,500 - 177,000 yuan, with the average price up 9,150 yuan (+5.51%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 170,500 - 174,000 yuan, with the average price up 5.51% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 181,520 yuan, up 7.55% from the previous closing price and 24.16% for the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. The CIF price of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was quoted at $2,150 - 2,400/ton, with the average price up 2.94% from the previous day and 9.11% for the week [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - Last week, the sentiment in the commodity market warmed up, and the Wenhua Industrial Products Index rose 2.69%. Lithium carbonate rebounded continuously and broke through the previous week's high. Currently, the "rush to export" of batteries supports the off - season demand. The domestic output of lithium salt plants has reached a short - term high after maintenance, and the domestic lithium carbonate inventory of SMM continues to decline. There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end, and the supply is uncertain. The overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the rapid rise of lithium prices hides callback risks. It is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream willingness to receive goods, and changes in the position on the disk. The reference operating range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on the GZEX is 171,500 - 192,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - On January 23, 2026, as of 3 p.m., the alumina index rose 0.26% to 2,719 yuan/ton during the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 717,000 lots, an increase of 80,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 164 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $303/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 80 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventories, the futures warrants on Friday were reported at 138,700 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the CIF price in Guinea remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $60/ton [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the support at the import cost position of Guinea's ore. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market's expectation of the implementation of supply contraction policies in the future has increased. However, the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity at the smelting end, downward - shifting cost support, and the pressure of expiring warrant deliveries. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Pay special attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,725 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+75) on the day, with a unilateral position of